Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Spain overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the World Cup in 2022, with 9 goals from chances worth 4.3 xG, a gap of 4.7. England were next on 3.6.
Belgium underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the World Cup in 2022, with 1 goal from chances worth 3.7 xG, a shortfall of 2.7. Brazil were next on 2.4.
Australia were the luckiest side in the World Cup in 2022, with 6 points from performances worth 1.9 xPts, 4.1 more than their chances deserved. Morocco were next on 3.8.
Canada were the unluckiest side in the World Cup in 2022, with no points from performances worth 4.6 xPts, 4.6 short of what they deserved. Denmark were next on 3.0.
Brazil would be top of the World Cup in 2022 on expected points, with 7.1 xPts from 5.4 xG created and 0.8 conceded across three matches. Argentina were next on 6.9.
Germany created the most xG in the World Cup in 2022, 8.2 from three matches, 2.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Argentina were next on 5.9.
Australia and Costa Rica shared the least xG in the World Cup in 2022, both on 1.2 from three matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Qatar were next on 1.4.
Costa Rica conceded the most xG in the World Cup in 2022, 7.9 from three matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Serbia were next on 7.3.
Argentina conceded the least xG in the World Cup in 2022, 0.6 from three matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Brazil were next on 0.8.
World Cup teams averaged 1.19 xG a game in 2022, from the 48 matches played, and scored 1.25 goals a game from it.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 2 | Argentina | 3 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 5.3 | -4.3 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 4 | France | 3 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | +3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | England | 3 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Ecuador | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Switzerland | 3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | +1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | Spain | 3 | 9 | 4.3 | +4.7 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | +6 | 2.0 | +4.0 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Croatia | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Portugal | 3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 11 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | -5 | 0.2 | -5.2 | 0 | 4.6 | -4.6 |
| 12 | Korea Republic | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 13 | Netherlands | 3 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +4 | 0.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 14 | Iran | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -3 | 0.1 | -3.1 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 15 | Senegal | 3 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 0.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 16 | Uruguay | 3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 18 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 19 | Denmark | 3 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Japan | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 21 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 22 | United States | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Morocco | 3 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 7 | 3.2 | +3.8 |
| 24 | Poland | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 25 | Ghana | 3 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 26 | Wales | 3 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -5 | -2.8 | -2.2 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 27 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| 28 | Qatar | 3 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 29 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -3.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 30 | Australia | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 6 | 1.9 | +4.1 |
| 31 | Serbia | 3 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 32 | Costa Rica | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | -8 | -6.6 | -1.4 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |