Randers FC have the biggest shortfall in the Superliga: 35 points from chances worth 47.2 xPts, a gap of 12.2. At the other end, FC Midtjylland have taken 60 points from an xPts figure of 48.9, 11.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 16 | 33 | 37.5 | -4.5 | 19 | 18.5 | +0.5 | +14 | 19.0 | -5.0 | 25 | 31.3 | -6.3 |
| 2 | AGF | 16 | 31 | 32.3 | -1.3 | 14 | 17.3 | -3.3 | +17 | 15.0 | +2.0 | 34 | 30.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | Nordsjælland | 16 | 29 | 30.2 | -1.2 | 17 | 18.1 | -1.1 | +12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | 30 | 29.2 | +0.8 |
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 16 | 43 | 29.2 | +13.8 | 24 | 21.9 | +2.1 | +19 | 7.3 | +11.7 | 30 | 26.6 | +3.4 |
| 5 | Odense BK | 16 | 28 | 27.3 | +0.7 | 30 | 21.8 | +8.2 | -2 | 5.6 | -7.6 | 24 | 25.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Brøndby IF | 16 | 27 | 28.7 | -1.7 | 20 | 24.2 | -4.2 | +7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 22 | 24.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Randers FC | 16 | 17 | 24.3 | -7.3 | 23 | 20.4 | +2.6 | -6 | 3.9 | -9.9 | 19 | 24.6 | -5.6 |
| 8 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 16 | 25 | 24.6 | +0.4 | 20 | 22.2 | -2.2 | +5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | 27 | 23.5 | +3.5 |
| 9 | Viborg FF | 16 | 26 | 23.9 | +2.1 | 24 | 27.3 | -3.3 | +2 | -3.4 | +5.4 | 23 | 20.9 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Vejle Boldklub | 16 | 22 | 21.0 | +1.0 | 26 | 23.8 | +2.2 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 16 | 20.4 | -4.4 |
| 11 | Fredericia | 16 | 20 | 22.6 | -2.6 | 33 | 29.4 | +3.6 | -13 | -6.8 | -6.2 | 16 | 18.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Silkeborg IF | 16 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7 | 26 | 28.2 | -2.2 | -8 | -6.6 | -1.4 | 19 | 17.9 | +1.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AGF | 16 | 31 | 28.9 | +2.1 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 | +13 | 8.5 | +4.5 | 33 | 27.0 | +6.0 |
| 2 | FC København | 16 | 34 | 30.0 | +4.0 | 25 | 22.5 | +2.5 | +9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 26 | 25.8 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Viborg FF | 16 | 23 | 26.5 | -3.5 | 27 | 23.6 | +3.4 | -4 | 2.9 | -6.9 | 21 | 23.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Brøndby IF | 16 | 17 | 22.5 | -5.5 | 15 | 19.7 | -4.7 | +2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 23 | 23.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Randers FC | 16 | 16 | 23.6 | -7.6 | 24 | 22.5 | +1.5 | -8 | 1.1 | -9.1 | 16 | 22.6 | -6.6 |
| 6 | FC Midtjylland | 16 | 29 | 24.7 | +4.3 | 12 | 24.8 | -12.8 | +17 | -0.1 | +17.1 | 30 | 22.2 | +7.8 |
| 7 | Odense BK | 16 | 23 | 22.0 | +1.0 | 30 | 25.6 | +4.4 | -7 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 17 | 20.2 | -3.2 |
| 8 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 16 | 19 | 22.5 | -3.5 | 29 | 28.2 | +0.8 | -10 | -5.7 | -4.3 | 17 | 19.7 | -2.7 |
| 9 | Nordsjælland | 16 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8 | 29 | 29.3 | -0.3 | -7 | -10.2 | +3.2 | 20 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| 10 | Vejle Boldklub | 16 | 14 | 15.3 | -1.3 | 34 | 30.1 | +3.9 | -20 | -14.7 | -5.3 | 8 | 13.5 | -5.5 |
| 11 | Silkeborg IF | 16 | 23 | 17.5 | +5.5 | 41 | 35.6 | +5.4 | -18 | -18.1 | +0.1 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 |
| 12 | Fredericia | 16 | 25 | 20.3 | +4.7 | 35 | 40.8 | -5.8 | -10 | -20.5 | +10.5 | 18 | 12.7 | +5.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 5 | 17 | 13.4 | +3.6 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +13 | 8.4 | +4.6 | 13 | 11.6 | +1.4 |
| 2 | Randers FC | 5 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 11 | 5.6 | +5.4 | -6 | 2.9 | -8.9 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 |
| 3 | Brøndby IF | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | -3 | 1.6 | -4.6 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Nordsjælland | 5 | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | Viborg FF | 5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | -5 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 6 | Fredericia | 5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Odense BK | 5 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 8 | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +0 | -0.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 9 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | AGF | 5 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | 4 | 8.6 | -4.6 | +7 | -1.5 | +8.5 | 11 | 6.0 | +5.0 |
| 11 | Vejle Boldklub | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | -2 | -3.8 | +1.8 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Silkeborg IF | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -6.8 | +3.8 | 9 | 3.4 | +5.6 |
FC Midtjylland overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2025/2026, with 72 goals from chances worth 53.9 xG, a gap of 18.1. Fredericia were next on 2.1.
Randers FC underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2025/2026, with 33 goals from chances worth 47.9 xG, a shortfall of 14.9. Brøndby IF were next on 7.2.
FC Midtjylland were the luckiest side in the Superliga in 2025/2026, with 60 points from performances worth 48.9 xPts, 11.1 more than their chances deserved. AGF were next on 9.1.
Randers FC were the unluckiest side in the Superliga in 2025/2026, with 35 points from performances worth 47.2 xPts, 12.2 short of what they deserved. Vejle Boldklub were next on 9.9.
AGF were also top of the Superliga in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 57.9 xPts from 61.3 xG created and 37.8 conceded across 32 matches. FC København were next on 57.1.
FC København created the most xG in the Superliga in 2025/2026, 67.5 from 32 matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. AGF were next on 61.3.
Vejle Boldklub created the least xG in the Superliga in 2025/2026, 36.3 from 32 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Silkeborg IF were next on 39.2.
Fredericia conceded the most xG in the Superliga in 2025/2026, 70.2 from 32 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Silkeborg IF were next on 63.8.
AGF conceded the least xG in the Superliga in 2025/2026, 37.8 from 32 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.6. FC København were next on 41.1.
Superliga teams averaged 1.55 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 192 matches played, and scored 1.55 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.50 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Superliga teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.68 a game against 1.42 away, a home advantage of +0.26, against +0.24 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AGF | 32 | 62 | 61.3 | +0.7 | 32 | 37.8 | -5.8 | +30 | 23.5 | +6.5 | 67 | 57.9 | +9.1 |
| 2 | FC København | 32 | 67 | 67.5 | -0.5 | 44 | 41.1 | +2.9 | +23 | 26.4 | -3.4 | 51 | 57.1 | -6.1 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 32 | 72 | 53.9 | +18.1 | 36 | 46.7 | -10.7 | +36 | 7.2 | +28.8 | 60 | 48.9 | +11.1 |
| 4 | Brøndby IF | 32 | 44 | 51.2 | -7.2 | 35 | 44.0 | -9.0 | +9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 45 | 48.1 | -3.1 |
| 5 | Randers FC | 32 | 33 | 47.9 | -14.9 | 47 | 42.8 | +4.2 | -14 | 5.0 | -19.0 | 35 | 47.2 | -12.2 |
| 6 | Odense BK | 32 | 51 | 49.3 | +1.7 | 60 | 47.3 | +12.7 | -9 | 2.0 | -11.0 | 41 | 45.7 | -4.7 |
| 7 | Nordsjælland | 32 | 51 | 49.3 | +1.7 | 46 | 47.4 | -1.4 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 50 | 45.6 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Viborg FF | 32 | 49 | 50.4 | -1.4 | 51 | 50.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -0.5 | -1.5 | 44 | 44.3 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 32 | 44 | 47.1 | -3.1 | 49 | 50.5 | -1.5 | -5 | -3.4 | -1.6 | 44 | 43.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Vejle Boldklub | 32 | 36 | 36.3 | -0.3 | 60 | 53.8 | +6.2 | -24 | -17.5 | -6.5 | 24 | 33.9 | -9.9 |
| 11 | Silkeborg IF | 32 | 41 | 39.2 | +1.8 | 67 | 63.8 | +3.2 | -26 | -24.6 | -1.4 | 36 | 30.7 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Fredericia | 32 | 45 | 42.9 | +2.1 | 68 | 70.2 | -2.2 | -23 | -27.4 | +4.4 | 34 | 30.7 | +3.3 |