Al Akhdoud have the biggest shortfall in the Saudi Pro League: 34 points from chances worth 46.1 xPts, a gap of 12.1. At the other end, Al Ittihad have taken 83 points from an xPts figure of 62.9, 20.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 17 | 54 | 44.2 | +9.8 | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | +37 | 29.4 | +7.6 | 41 | 38.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Al-Qadsiah | 17 | 30 | 36.5 | -6.5 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 | +18 | 23.4 | -5.4 | 41 | 36.1 | +4.9 |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 17 | 43 | 39.3 | +3.7 | 19 | 16.5 | +2.5 | +24 | 22.8 | +1.2 | 36 | 35.9 | +0.1 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 17 | 47 | 34.7 | +12.3 | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 | +32 | 19.3 | +12.7 | 49 | 34.8 | +14.2 |
| 5 | Al Nassr | 17 | 34 | 36.7 | -2.7 | 18 | 17.5 | +0.5 | +16 | 19.2 | -3.2 | 32 | 34.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | Al Shabab | 17 | 36 | 32.1 | +3.9 | 19 | 19.7 | -0.7 | +17 | 12.4 | +4.6 | 32 | 30.5 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Damac FC | 17 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 | 24 | 18.6 | +5.4 | -3 | 2.9 | -5.9 | 22 | 25.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | Al Fateh | 17 | 28 | 25.7 | +2.3 | 26 | 26.8 | -0.8 | +2 | -1.1 | +3.1 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Al Akhdoud | 17 | 15 | 17.0 | -2.0 | 31 | 23.3 | +7.7 | -16 | -6.3 | -9.7 | 13 | 22.1 | -9.1 |
| 10 | Al Kholood | 17 | 23 | 23.6 | -0.6 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 26 | 21.8 | +4.2 |
| 11 | Al Ettifaq | 17 | 17 | 21.3 | -4.3 | 26 | 24.2 | +1.8 | -9 | -2.9 | -6.1 | 20 | 21.7 | -1.7 |
| 12 | Al Taawoun | 17 | 24 | 22.2 | +1.8 | 21 | 25.9 | -4.9 | +3 | -3.8 | +6.8 | 26 | 21.7 | +4.3 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 17 | 13 | 19.4 | -6.4 | 20 | 23.3 | -3.3 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 21 | 20.6 | +0.4 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 17 | 20 | 21.1 | -1.1 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 | -7 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 16 | 20.1 | -4.1 |
| 15 | Al Orubah | 17 | 15 | 20.7 | -5.7 | 33 | 29.4 | +3.6 | -18 | -8.7 | -9.3 | 16 | 18.9 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 17 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 | 22 | 23.8 | -1.8 | -6 | -8.1 | +2.1 | 20 | 18.6 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Al-Wehda | 17 | 24 | 16.6 | +7.4 | 35 | 29.7 | +5.3 | -11 | -13.1 | +2.1 | 16 | 16.2 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Al Raed | 17 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 | 33 | 28.0 | +5.0 | -16 | -13.4 | -2.6 | 8 | 14.4 | -6.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nassr | 17 | 46 | 35.0 | +11.0 | 20 | 17.7 | +2.3 | +26 | 17.3 | +8.7 | 38 | 32.6 | +5.4 |
| 2 | Al Hilal | 17 | 41 | 33.8 | +7.2 | 24 | 20.0 | +4.0 | +17 | 13.8 | +3.2 | 34 | 31.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 17 | 26 | 28.6 | -2.6 | 17 | 18.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | 31 | 28.9 | +2.1 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 17 | 32 | 29.5 | +2.5 | 20 | 22.7 | -2.7 | +12 | 6.8 | +5.2 | 34 | 28.0 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Al-Qadsiah | 17 | 23 | 29.3 | -6.3 | 19 | 21.7 | -2.7 | +4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | 27 | 27.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Al Shabab | 17 | 29 | 25.0 | +4.0 | 22 | 21.8 | +0.2 | +7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | 28 | 25.6 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq | 17 | 27 | 22.1 | +4.9 | 19 | 21.1 | -2.1 | +8 | 1.0 | +7.0 | 30 | 24.2 | +5.8 |
| 8 | Al Akhdoud | 17 | 18 | 22.0 | -4.0 | 25 | 21.8 | +3.2 | -7 | 0.2 | -7.2 | 21 | 24.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 17 | 19 | 20.7 | -1.7 | 37 | 28.9 | +8.1 | -18 | -8.2 | -9.8 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 |
| 10 | Al Fateh | 17 | 19 | 23.8 | -4.8 | 35 | 34.2 | +0.8 | -16 | -10.3 | -5.7 | 15 | 19.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 | Al-Fayha | 17 | 14 | 16.7 | -2.7 | 29 | 23.7 | +5.3 | -15 | -7.0 | -8.0 | 15 | 18.8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Al Khaleej | 17 | 20 | 19.9 | +0.1 | 30 | 29.3 | +0.7 | -10 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 21 | 18.5 | +2.5 |
| 13 | Al Taawoun | 17 | 16 | 17.2 | -1.2 | 18 | 24.6 | -6.6 | -2 | -7.4 | +5.4 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Al Raed | 17 | 24 | 18.9 | +5.1 | 33 | 32.5 | +0.5 | -9 | -13.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 17.3 | -4.3 |
| 15 | Al-Wehda | 17 | 18 | 16.8 | +1.2 | 32 | 28.6 | +3.4 | -14 | -11.8 | -2.2 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 17 | 21 | 15.8 | +5.2 | 30 | 33.0 | -3.0 | -9 | -17.3 | +8.3 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 |
| 17 | Damac FC | 17 | 16 | 15.7 | +0.3 | 26 | 30.8 | -4.8 | -10 | -15.1 | +5.1 | 13 | 15.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Al Orubah | 17 | 16 | 13.4 | +2.6 | 41 | 32.5 | +8.5 | -25 | -19.1 | -5.9 | 14 | 13.0 | +1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nassr | 5 | 16 | 14.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | +9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 |
| 2 | Al Hilal | 5 | 16 | 13.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Al Shabab | 5 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | +3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 5 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Al Ahli | 5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | +8 | 2.5 | +5.5 | 15 | 8.8 | +6.2 |
| 7 | Al-Fayha | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | -4 | 1.2 | -5.2 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Al Ettifaq | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 9 | Al Fateh | 5 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | +2 | -1.6 | +3.6 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Al Kholood | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Al Raed | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 | -7 | -1.1 | -5.9 | 0 | 6.4 | -6.4 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 5 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -1.7 | -2.3 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 9.5 | +5.5 | -10 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Damac FC | 5 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Al-Wehda | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -4.3 | +3.3 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 17 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 11.9 | -1.9 | -4 | -5.8 | +1.8 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Al Riyadh | 5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
Al Hilal overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, with 95 goals from chances worth 78.1 xG, a gap of 16.9. Al Ittihad were next on 14.8.
Al-Qadsiah underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, with 53 goals from chances worth 65.8 xG, a shortfall of 12.8. Al-Fayha were next on 9.0.
Al Ittihad were the luckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, with 83 points from performances worth 62.9 xPts, 20.1 more than their chances deserved. Al Hilal were next on 6.0.
Al Akhdoud were the unluckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, with 34 points from performances worth 46.1 xPts, 12.1 short of what they deserved. Al Raed were next on 10.6.
Al Hilal would be top of the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 69.0 xPts from 78.1 xG created and 34.8 conceded across 34 matches. Al Nassr were next on 67.4.
Al Hilal created the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, 78.1 from 34 matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Nassr were next on 71.7.
Al Riyadh created the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, 31.4 from 34 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al-Wehda were next on 33.4.
Al Orubah conceded the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, 61.9 from 34 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Fateh were next on 61.0.
Al Ahli conceded the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2024/2025, 34.5 from 34 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Hilal and Al-Qadsiah were next on 34.8.
Saudi Pro League teams averaged 1.42 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.47 goals a game from it.
Saudi Pro League teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.51 a game against 1.32 away, a home advantage of +0.19.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 34 | 95 | 78.1 | +16.9 | 41 | 34.8 | +6.2 | +54 | 43.3 | +10.7 | 75 | 69.0 | +6.0 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 34 | 80 | 71.7 | +8.3 | 38 | 35.2 | +2.8 | +42 | 36.5 | +5.5 | 70 | 67.4 | +2.6 |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 34 | 69 | 67.9 | +1.1 | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 | +33 | 33.3 | -0.3 | 67 | 64.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 34 | 53 | 65.8 | -12.8 | 31 | 34.8 | -3.8 | +22 | 31.0 | -9.0 | 68 | 63.4 | +4.6 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 34 | 79 | 64.2 | +14.8 | 35 | 38.1 | -3.1 | +44 | 26.1 | +17.9 | 83 | 62.9 | +20.1 |
| 6 | Al Shabab | 34 | 65 | 57.1 | +7.9 | 41 | 41.5 | -0.5 | +24 | 15.6 | +8.4 | 60 | 56.1 | +3.9 |
| 7 | Al Akhdoud | 34 | 33 | 39.0 | -6.0 | 56 | 45.1 | +10.9 | -23 | -6.1 | -16.9 | 34 | 46.1 | -12.1 |
| 8 | Al Ettifaq | 34 | 44 | 43.4 | +0.6 | 45 | 45.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 50 | 45.8 | +4.2 |
| 9 | Al Fateh | 34 | 47 | 49.5 | -2.5 | 61 | 61.0 | +0.0 | -14 | -11.5 | -2.5 | 39 | 42.2 | -3.2 |
| 10 | Al Kholood | 34 | 42 | 44.2 | -2.2 | 64 | 55.6 | +8.4 | -22 | -11.4 | -10.6 | 40 | 41.5 | -1.5 |
| 11 | Damac FC | 34 | 37 | 37.2 | -0.2 | 50 | 49.4 | +0.6 | -13 | -12.2 | -0.8 | 35 | 40.3 | -5.3 |
| 12 | Al Taawoun | 34 | 40 | 39.4 | +0.6 | 39 | 50.5 | -11.5 | +1 | -11.1 | +12.1 | 45 | 40.0 | +5.0 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 27 | 36.0 | -9.0 | 49 | 47.0 | +2.0 | -22 | -11.0 | -11.0 | 36 | 39.4 | -3.4 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 34 | 40 | 41.0 | -1.0 | 57 | 56.4 | +0.6 | -17 | -15.5 | -1.5 | 37 | 38.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 37 | 31.4 | +5.6 | 52 | 56.8 | -4.8 | -15 | -25.4 | +10.4 | 38 | 33.9 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Al-Wehda | 34 | 42 | 33.4 | +8.6 | 67 | 58.3 | +8.7 | -25 | -25.0 | +0.0 | 33 | 32.7 | +0.3 |
| 17 | Al Orubah | 34 | 31 | 34.1 | -3.1 | 74 | 61.9 | +12.1 | -43 | -27.8 | -15.2 | 30 | 31.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Al Raed | 34 | 41 | 33.5 | +7.5 | 66 | 60.5 | +5.5 | -25 | -27.0 | +2.0 | 21 | 31.6 | -10.6 |