Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 25 October 2026, after the last game
Fakel have the biggest shortfall in the Russian Premier League: 6 points from chances worth 12.5 xPts, a gap of 6.5. At the other end, Zenit have taken 27 points from an xPts figure of 21.2, 5.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Moskva | 7 | 15 | 16.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva | 8 | 13 | 14.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | +8 | 4.6 | +3.4 | 18 | 13.9 | +4.1 |
| 3 | Zenit | 6 | 12 | 13.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 16 | 11.9 | +4.1 |
| 5 | Orenburg | 6 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 | +2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| 7 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 6 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | -2 | 2.4 | -4.4 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 |
| 8 | Krylya Sovetov | 6 | 7 | 10.6 | -3.6 | 12 | 8.2 | +3.8 | -5 | 2.4 | -7.4 | 5 | 9.6 | -4.6 |
| 9 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | +0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 |
| 10 | Krasnodar | 6 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Fakel | 7 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | -8 | -3.5 | -4.5 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Rubin Kazan | 6 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -3.3 | +0.3 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Akron | 6 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Rostov | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -1.5 | +3.5 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 7 | 10.0 | -3.0 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -1 | 4.1 | -5.1 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 6 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Rostov | 7 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 | -6 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 |
| 4 | Zenit | 6 | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 1.5 | +7.5 | 15 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov | 6 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 0.6 | +4.4 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Krasnodar | 6 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 0.8 | +3.2 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 |
| 7 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 7 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -4.6 | -2.4 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Akron | 6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 6 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 7 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 10 | 14.3 | -4.3 | +1 | -5.9 | +6.9 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Orenburg | 6 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 10.9 | -5.9 | +0 | -4.7 | +4.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 13 | CSKA Moskva | 4 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 14 | Rodina Moskva | 7 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 14 | 15.1 | -1.1 | -9 | -8.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 16 | Spartak Moskva | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -4.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krylya Sovetov | 5 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Spartak Moskva | 5 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | +6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 |
| 3 | Dinamo Moskva | 5 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 4 | Zenit | 5 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 15 | 8.9 | +6.1 |
| 5 | CSKA Moskva | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | +5 | 1.4 | +3.6 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 5 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -1 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 7 | Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | -3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Krasnodar | 5 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 9 | Orenburg | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 9.2 | -6.2 | +4 | -1.4 | +5.4 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 10 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 11 | Akron | 5 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | +3 | -2.4 | +5.4 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 |
| 12 | Rostov | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -3.2 | +5.2 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 | -9 | -4.7 | -4.3 | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 15 | Rubin Kazan | 5 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -7 | -4.8 | -2.2 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | -6 | -5.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
Zenit are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, with 25 goals from chances worth 18.1 xG, a gap of 6.9. Krasnodar are next on 4.1.
Fakel are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, with 8 goals from chances worth 12.6 xG, a shortfall of 4.6. Dinamo Moskva are next on 4.1.
Krasnodar are the luckiest side in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, with 23 points from performances worth 17.3 xPts, 5.7 more than their chances deserved. CSKA Moskva are next on 5.6.
Fakel are the unluckiest side in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, with 6 points from performances worth 12.5 xPts, 6.5 short of what they deserved. Baltika Kaliningrad and Akhmat Grozny are next on 5.7.
Dinamo Moskva would also be top of the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 22.6 xPts from 23.1 xG created and 12.7 conceded across twelve matches. Spartak Moskva are next on 20.7.
Dinamo Moskva have created the most xG in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, 23.1 from twelve matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. CSKA Moskva are next on 21.3.
Rubin Kazan have created the least xG in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, 11.9 from twelve matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Rodina Moskva are next on 12.0.
Rodina Moskva have conceded the most xG in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, 25.4 from twelve matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Lokomotiv Moskva are next on 22.3.
Baltika Kaliningrad have conceded the least xG in the Russian Premier League in 2026/2027, 11.5 from twelve matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Zenit are next on 12.4.
Russian Premier League teams have averaged 1.35 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 95 matches played, and have scored 1.37 goals a game from it.
Russian Premier League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.49 a game against 1.22 away, a home advantage of +0.27.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Moskva | 12 | 19 | 23.1 | -4.1 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 | +7 | 10.4 | -3.4 | 25 | 22.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | Zenit | 12 | 27 | 22.2 | +4.8 | 13 | 13.4 | -0.4 | +14 | 8.8 | +5.2 | 27 | 21.2 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva | 12 | 21 | 21.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 12.8 | -2.8 | +11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 23 | 20.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 12 | 15 | 16.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 |
| 5 | CSKA Moskva | 12 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 16.9 | -4.9 | +9 | 4.4 | +4.6 | 25 | 19.4 | +5.6 |
| 6 | Krylya Sovetov | 12 | 17 | 18.1 | -1.1 | 17 | 15.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 3.1 | -3.1 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 |
| 7 | Krasnodar | 12 | 20 | 15.9 | +4.1 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | +6 | 1.4 | +4.6 | 23 | 17.3 | +5.7 |
| 8 | Orenburg | 12 | 14 | 16.9 | -2.9 | 12 | 16.7 | -4.7 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 12 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 17 | 13.6 | +3.4 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 11 | 16.7 | -5.7 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 12 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 | 23 | 17.6 | +5.4 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 13 | 16.6 | -3.6 |
| 11 | Rostov | 12 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | 21 | 17.3 | +3.7 | -6 | -4.7 | -1.3 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | Rubin Kazan | 12 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 | 18 | 18.6 | -0.6 | -6 | -6.7 | +0.7 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Fakel | 12 | 8 | 12.6 | -4.6 | 20 | 19.5 | +0.5 | -12 | -6.9 | -5.1 | 6 | 12.5 | -6.5 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 12 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 | 16 | 22.3 | -6.3 | +0 | -7.4 | +7.4 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | 27 | 25.4 | +1.6 | -14 | -13.4 | -0.6 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 |