Almere City have the biggest shortfall in the Eredivisie: 22 points from chances worth 38.3 xPts, a gap of 16.3. At the other end, Ajax have taken 78 points from an xPts figure of 66.0, 12.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 17 | 55 | 46.9 | +8.1 | 15 | 15.5 | -0.5 | +40 | 31.4 | +8.6 | 42 | 38.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Ajax | 17 | 38 | 37.0 | +1.0 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | +24 | 24.7 | -0.7 | 42 | 38.4 | +3.6 |
| 3 | AZ | 17 | 30 | 33.0 | -3.0 | 17 | 15.3 | +1.7 | +13 | 17.7 | -4.7 | 28 | 34.3 | -6.3 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 38 | 35.5 | +2.5 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | +20 | 19.2 | +0.8 | 36 | 33.2 | +2.8 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 17 | 36 | 36.6 | -0.6 | 21 | 22.5 | -1.5 | +15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 34 | 31.9 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 32 | 30.6 | +1.4 | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 | +10 | 11.6 | -1.6 | 34 | 29.8 | +4.2 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 17 | 30 | 28.8 | +1.2 | 15 | 18.7 | -3.7 | +15 | 10.1 | +4.9 | 36 | 29.2 | +6.8 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 17 | 36 | 31.6 | +4.4 | 24 | 21.9 | +2.1 | +12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 24 | 29.2 | -5.2 |
| 9 | FC Utrecht | 17 | 28 | 30.9 | -2.9 | 24 | 20.5 | +3.5 | +4 | 10.4 | -6.4 | 30 | 28.9 | +1.1 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 17 | 27 | 25.2 | +1.8 | 14 | 17.9 | -3.9 | +13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 30 | 27.5 | +2.5 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 17 | 20 | 24.2 | -4.2 | 24 | 21.4 | +2.6 | -4 | 2.8 | -6.8 | 18 | 25.5 | -7.5 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 17 | 17 | 24.1 | -7.1 | 24 | 20.8 | +3.2 | -7 | 3.4 | -10.4 | 25 | 25.1 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Heracles Almelo | 17 | 29 | 27.6 | +1.4 | 27 | 27.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 25 | 25.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | NAC Breda | 17 | 21 | 24.9 | -3.9 | 22 | 24.4 | -2.4 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 24 | 23.7 | +0.3 |
| 15 | Almere City | 17 | 13 | 23.3 | -10.3 | 36 | 22.9 | +13.1 | -23 | 0.4 | -23.4 | 11 | 23.6 | -12.6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 24 | 23.5 | +0.5 | 20 | 24.3 | -4.3 | +4 | -0.9 | +4.9 | 25 | 23.1 | +1.9 |
| 17 | RKC Waalwijk | 16 | 24 | 19.9 | +4.1 | 30 | 27.6 | +2.4 | -6 | -7.7 | +1.7 | 17 | 17.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Willem II | 17 | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 | 27 | 32.3 | -5.3 | -7 | -14.9 | +7.9 | 12 | 14.9 | -2.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 17 | 48 | 39.2 | +8.8 | 24 | 16.5 | +7.5 | +24 | 22.8 | +1.2 | 37 | 36.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 38 | 28.4 | +9.6 | 20 | 18.4 | +1.6 | +18 | 10.0 | +8.0 | 32 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 3 | Ajax | 17 | 29 | 29.7 | -0.7 | 18 | 21.8 | -3.8 | +11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | 36 | 27.6 | +8.4 |
| 4 | FC Utrecht | 17 | 34 | 25.9 | +8.1 | 21 | 25.7 | -4.7 | +13 | 0.2 | +12.8 | 34 | 24.0 | +10.0 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 17 | 26 | 22.7 | +3.3 | 28 | 22.2 | +5.8 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 20 | 23.4 | -3.4 |
| 6 | AZ | 17 | 28 | 22.1 | +5.9 | 20 | 21.9 | -1.9 | +8 | 0.2 | +7.8 | 29 | 23.3 | +5.7 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 17 | 19 | 24.8 | -5.8 | 19 | 30.8 | -11.8 | +0 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 21 | 20.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 25 | 25.4 | -0.4 | 33 | 34.5 | -1.5 | -8 | -9.1 | +1.1 | 17 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 17 | 15 | 16.5 | -1.5 | 22 | 25.6 | -3.6 | -7 | -9.1 | +2.1 | 19 | 18.1 | +0.9 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 17 | 12 | 17.9 | -5.9 | 42 | 30.0 | +12.0 | -30 | -12.1 | -17.9 | 7 | 16.9 | -9.9 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 17 | 20 | 18.2 | +1.8 | 30 | 31.7 | -1.7 | -10 | -13.5 | +3.5 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | FC Groningen | 17 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | 39 | 30.6 | +8.4 | -26 | -14.9 | -11.1 | 9 | 15.8 | -6.8 |
| 13 | Almere City | 17 | 10 | 14.3 | -4.3 | 28 | 30.1 | -2.1 | -18 | -15.8 | -2.2 | 11 | 14.7 | -3.7 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | 30 | 29.9 | +0.1 | -12 | -14.7 | +2.7 | 15 | 13.8 | +1.2 |
| 15 | NAC Breda | 17 | 13 | 18.2 | -5.2 | 36 | 36.6 | -0.6 | -23 | -18.4 | -4.6 | 9 | 13.5 | -4.5 |
| 16 | RKC Waalwijk | 17 | 19 | 21.2 | -2.2 | 43 | 43.7 | -0.7 | -24 | -22.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 13.4 | -6.4 |
| 17 | Heracles Almelo | 17 | 13 | 14.0 | -1.0 | 36 | 37.7 | -1.7 | -23 | -23.7 | +0.7 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 17 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 | 29 | 33.3 | -4.3 | -15 | -22.0 | +7.0 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 5 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | +11 | 13.6 | -2.6 | 15 | 12.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | AZ | 5 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 | FC Groningen | 5 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | +3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 4 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Feyenoord | 5 | 12 | 11.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | +6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 5 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Ajax | 5 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -5 | 1.2 | -6.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Almere City | 5 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | -4 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 8.6 | -5.6 | +6 | -0.8 | +6.8 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 |
| 12 | NAC Breda | 5 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | -6 | -0.9 | -5.1 | 2 | 6.2 | -4.2 |
| 13 | FC Twente | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -2.3 | +1.3 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 11.6 | -2.6 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 13.0 | -6.0 | -1 | -5.7 | +4.7 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 16 | Heracles Almelo | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | -9 | -6.1 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 17 | RKC Waalwijk | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 | -7 | -9.6 | +2.6 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 11.6 | -4.6 | -3 | -6.9 | +3.9 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
PSV overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, with 103 goals from chances worth 86.1 xG, a gap of 16.9. Feyenoord were next on 12.1.
Almere City underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, with 23 goals from chances worth 37.6 xG, a shortfall of 14.6. Sparta Rotterdam were next on 10.0.
Ajax were the luckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, with 78 points from performances worth 66.0 xPts, 12.0 more than their chances deserved. FC Utrecht were next on 11.1.
Almere City were the unluckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, with 22 points from performances worth 38.3 xPts, 16.3 short of what they deserved. RKC Waalwijk were next on 7.3.
PSV were also top of the Eredivisie in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 75.4 xPts from 86.1 xG created and 32.0 conceded across 34 matches. Ajax were next on 66.0.
PSV created the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, 86.1 from 34 matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Ajax were next on 66.7.
Willem II created the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, 28.7 from 34 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Almere City were next on 37.6.
RKC Waalwijk conceded the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, 71.3 from 33 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Willem II were next on 65.6.
PSV conceded the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2024/2025, 32.0 from 34 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Ajax were next on 34.1.
Eredivisie teams averaged 1.48 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 305 matches played, and scored 1.50 goals a game from it.
Eredivisie teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.71 a game against 1.25 away, a home advantage of +0.46.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 34 | 103 | 86.1 | +16.9 | 39 | 32.0 | +7.0 | +64 | 54.2 | +9.8 | 79 | 75.4 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 67 | 66.7 | +0.3 | 32 | 34.1 | -2.1 | +35 | 32.6 | +2.4 | 78 | 66.0 | +12.0 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 76 | 63.9 | +12.1 | 38 | 34.7 | +3.3 | +38 | 29.2 | +8.8 | 68 | 63.2 | +4.8 |
| 4 | AZ | 34 | 58 | 55.1 | +2.9 | 37 | 37.2 | -0.2 | +21 | 17.9 | +3.1 | 57 | 57.6 | -0.6 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 62 | 59.2 | +2.8 | 49 | 44.6 | +4.4 | +13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 54 | 55.3 | -1.3 |
| 6 | FC Utrecht | 34 | 62 | 56.8 | +5.2 | 45 | 46.2 | -1.2 | +17 | 10.6 | +6.4 | 64 | 52.9 | +11.1 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 57 | 56.0 | +1.0 | 55 | 53.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 51 | 48.7 | +2.3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 51 | 48.2 | +2.8 | 46 | 47.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 0.7 | +4.3 | 43 | 47.2 | -4.2 |
| 9 | SC Heerenveen | 34 | 42 | 46.7 | -4.7 | 57 | 48.8 | +8.2 | -15 | -2.1 | -12.9 | 43 | 46.1 | -3.1 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 39 | 49.0 | -10.0 | 43 | 52.2 | -9.2 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 39 | 45.8 | -6.8 |
| 11 | FC Groningen | 34 | 40 | 40.9 | -0.9 | 53 | 48.5 | +4.5 | -13 | -7.6 | -5.4 | 39 | 43.4 | -4.4 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 37 | 42.3 | -5.3 | 54 | 52.4 | +1.6 | -17 | -10.1 | -6.9 | 41 | 41.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | Almere City | 34 | 23 | 37.6 | -14.6 | 64 | 53.0 | +11.0 | -41 | -15.4 | -25.6 | 22 | 38.3 | -16.3 |
| 14 | NAC Breda | 34 | 34 | 43.1 | -9.1 | 58 | 61.0 | -3.0 | -24 | -17.9 | -6.1 | 33 | 37.3 | -4.3 |
| 15 | Heracles Almelo | 34 | 42 | 41.6 | +0.4 | 63 | 64.9 | -1.9 | -21 | -23.3 | +2.3 | 38 | 37.1 | +0.9 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 42 | 38.7 | +3.3 | 50 | 54.3 | -4.3 | -8 | -15.6 | +7.6 | 40 | 37.0 | +3.0 |
| 17 | RKC Waalwijk | 33 | 43 | 41.1 | +1.9 | 73 | 71.3 | +1.7 | -30 | -30.2 | +0.2 | 24 | 31.3 | -7.3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 34 | 34 | 28.7 | +5.3 | 56 | 65.6 | -9.6 | -22 | -36.9 | +14.9 | 26 | 24.8 | +1.2 |