Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 3 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Club BolÃvar | 3 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | +6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | +4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Racing Club | 3 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Central Cordoba SdE | 3 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 6 | Flamengo | 3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 7 | LDU Quito | 3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | +5 | 1.7 | +3.3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Universidad Chile | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 9 | São Paulo | 3 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 1.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| 11 | River Plate | 2 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | +4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Atlético Nacional | 3 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +6 | 1.1 | +4.9 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 13 | Fortaleza | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Olimpia | 3 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Alianza Lima | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Talleres Córdoba | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 0.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 17 | Deportivo Táchira | 3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | -3 | 1.4 | -4.4 | 0 | 3.9 | -3.9 |
| 18 | Universitario | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 19 | Peñarol | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 20 | Colo-Colo | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 21 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 3 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | -1 | -1.1 | +0.1 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 22 | Internacional | 2 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | +4 | 1.1 | +2.9 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
| 23 | Cerro Porteño | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 24 | Libertad | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 25 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 26 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 27 | Bahia | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 28 | Estudiantes | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 29 | Sporting Cristal | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| 30 | Independiente del Valle | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 31 | Carabobo | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -4.3 | +1.3 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 32 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 3 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 3 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | Racing Club | 2 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 2.9 | +4.1 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Flamengo | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | Central Cordoba SdE | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 6 | Vélez Sarsfield | 3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Internacional | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | River Plate | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Peñarol | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 0 | 3.7 | -3.7 |
| 11 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Olimpia | 3 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Universidad Chile | 2 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Libertad | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 |
| 16 | Alianza Lima | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Colo-Colo | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 5.7 | +5.3 | -8 | -2.2 | -5.8 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Nacional | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 19 | São Paulo | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +3 | -0.1 | +3.1 | 6 | 2.5 | +3.5 |
| 20 | Club BolÃvar | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 2.5 | -2.5 |
| 21 | Atlético Nacional | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 22 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
| 23 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -2.3 | +2.3 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 |
| 24 | Independiente del Valle | 3 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 25 | Cerro Porteño | 3 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | -4 | -4.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 26 | Fortaleza | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 27 | Deportivo Táchira | 3 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -2.9 | -1.1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 28 | Carabobo | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | -8 | -5.7 | -2.3 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 29 | LDU Quito | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | -1 | -6.1 | +5.1 | 4 | 0.9 | +3.1 |
| 30 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | -7 | -3.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 31 | Sporting Cristal | 2 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 | -9 | -3.9 | -5.1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Universitario | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -1.8 | +1.8 | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 |
Palmeiras overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, with 17 goals from chances worth 12.9 xG, a gap of 4.1. Racing Club were next on 3.9.
Deportivo Táchira underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, with 4 goals from chances worth 6.0 xG, a shortfall of 2.0. Universidad Chile were next on 1.6.
LDU Quito were the luckiest side in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, with 11 points from performances worth 6.2 xPts, 4.8 more than their chances deserved. Palmeiras were next on 4.5.
Deportivo Táchira were the unluckiest side in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, with no points from performances worth 5.8 xPts, 5.8 short of what they deserved. Talleres Córdoba were next on 3.9.
Palmeiras were also top of the Copa Libertadores in 2025 on expected points, with 13.5 xPts from 12.9 xG created and 3.9 conceded across six matches. Racing Club were next on 10.5.
Palmeiras created the most xG in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, 12.9 from six matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Club BolÃvar were next on 9.2.
Carabobo created the least xG in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, 2.7 from six matches, 0.5 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Atlético Bucaramanga were next on 3.0.
Carabobo conceded the most xG in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, 12.7 from six matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Sporting Cristal were next on 11.0.
River Plate conceded the least xG in the Copa Libertadores in 2025, 1.9 from four matches, 0.5 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Estudiantes were next on 2.8.
Copa Libertadores teams averaged 1.17 xG a game in 2025, from the 83 matches played, and scored 1.32 goals a game from it.
Copa Libertadores teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.35 a game against 0.98 away, a home advantage of +0.37.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 6 | 17 | 12.9 | +4.1 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | +13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | 18 | 13.5 | +4.5 |
| 2 | Racing Club | 5 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +11 | 5.5 | +5.5 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 6 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | 11 | 10.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | Central Cordoba SdE | 6 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 11 | 10.4 | +0.6 |
| 5 | Flamengo | 6 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Club BolÃvar | 6 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | 11 | 6.4 | +4.6 | +1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 |
| 7 | River Plate | 4 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 1.9 | +3.1 | +6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 9 | Universidad Chile | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | Olimpia | 6 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | -2 | 0.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Estudiantes | 4 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Talleres Córdoba | 6 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +4 | 1.8 | +2.2 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 |
| 14 | Internacional | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 1.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 15 | Alianza Lima | 6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 16 | Peñarol | 5 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 17 | Atlético Nacional | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | +2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 19 | Colo-Colo | 5 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 6.5 | +4.5 | -7 | -1.3 | -5.7 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 20 | Bahia | 5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 21 | LDU Quito | 6 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | +4 | -4.4 | +8.4 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 |
| 22 | Libertad | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | +3 | -0.6 | +3.6 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 |
| 23 | Deportivo Táchira | 6 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | -7 | -1.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 5.8 | -5.8 |
| 24 | Nacional | 5 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 25 | Cerro Porteño | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 26 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 4 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 27 | Universitario | 4 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 28 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 | -8 | -4.8 | -3.2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 29 | Independiente del Valle | 4 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 30 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 5 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -4 | -4.6 | +0.6 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 |
| 31 | Sporting Cristal | 5 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 14 | 11.0 | +3.0 | -10 | -7.8 | -2.2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 32 | Carabobo | 6 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | -11 | -10.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |