Cercle Brugge have the biggest shortfall in the Belgian Pro League: 39 points from chances worth 51.4 xPts, a gap of 12.4. At the other end, Genk have taken 81 points from an xPts figure of 68.3, 12.7 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 20 | 46 | 49.7 | -3.7 | 21 | 20.6 | +0.4 | +25 | 29.1 | -4.1 | 43 | 43.8 | -0.8 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 20 | 40 | 41.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 16.3 | -3.3 | +27 | 25.1 | +1.9 | 46 | 42.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Genk | 20 | 37 | 42.3 | -5.3 | 15 | 22.5 | -7.5 | +22 | 19.8 | +2.2 | 47 | 39.0 | +8.0 |
| 4 | Westerlo | 19 | 39 | 45.0 | -6.0 | 29 | 25.1 | +3.9 | +10 | 19.9 | -9.9 | 28 | 37.1 | -9.1 |
| 5 | Sporting Charleroi | 20 | 32 | 36.2 | -4.2 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | +15 | 14.5 | +0.5 | 37 | 35.9 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 20 | 37 | 34.7 | +2.3 | 21 | 26.6 | -5.6 | +16 | 8.1 | +7.9 | 31 | 32.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Cercle Brugge | 18 | 22 | 31.9 | -9.9 | 22 | 21.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 10.2 | -10.2 | 27 | 31.9 | -4.9 |
| 8 | Mechelen | 20 | 40 | 35.3 | +4.7 | 27 | 28.9 | -1.9 | +13 | 6.3 | +6.7 | 29 | 31.4 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Antwerp | 20 | 37 | 32.0 | +5.0 | 29 | 31.1 | -2.1 | +8 | 0.9 | +7.1 | 28 | 28.6 | -0.6 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 20 | 25 | 27.6 | -2.6 | 19 | 28.6 | -9.6 | +6 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 31 | 28.4 | +2.6 |
| 11 | Standard Liège | 20 | 15 | 26.6 | -11.6 | 15 | 25.8 | -10.8 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 28 | 28.2 | -0.2 |
| 12 | Sint-Truiden | 18 | 29 | 30.4 | -1.4 | 27 | 27.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 28 | 26.3 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Gent | 20 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 | 32 | 29.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 25 | 25.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Dender | 20 | 25 | 23.6 | +1.4 | 22 | 28.2 | -6.2 | +3 | -4.5 | +7.5 | 28 | 24.4 | +3.6 |
| 15 | KV Kortrijk | 18 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 | 26 | 23.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 22 | 24.0 | -2.0 |
| 16 | K. Beerschot V.A. | 18 | 23 | 23.9 | -0.9 | 27 | 31.4 | -4.4 | -4 | -7.6 | +3.6 | 22 | 20.1 | +1.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 20 | 40 | 42.6 | -2.6 | 21 | 22.4 | -1.4 | +19 | 20.2 | -1.2 | 39 | 38.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 20 | 31 | 28.8 | +2.2 | 15 | 24.7 | -9.7 | +16 | 4.1 | +11.9 | 37 | 30.9 | +6.1 |
| 3 | Genk | 20 | 32 | 34.0 | -2.0 | 29 | 30.9 | -1.9 | +3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 34 | 29.3 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Sporting Charleroi | 20 | 23 | 31.0 | -8.0 | 29 | 28.7 | +0.3 | -6 | 2.3 | -8.3 | 21 | 28.9 | -7.9 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 20 | 25 | 25.4 | -0.4 | 19 | 31.3 | -12.3 | +6 | -5.8 | +11.8 | 30 | 23.9 | +6.1 |
| 6 | Mechelen | 19 | 21 | 27.5 | -6.5 | 29 | 33.3 | -4.3 | -8 | -5.8 | -2.2 | 20 | 23.4 | -3.4 |
| 7 | Westerlo | 20 | 29 | 29.8 | -0.8 | 35 | 40.9 | -5.9 | -6 | -11.1 | +5.1 | 22 | 22.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | OH Leuven | 20 | 14 | 20.8 | -6.8 | 33 | 32.2 | +0.8 | -19 | -11.4 | -7.6 | 14 | 21.1 | -7.1 |
| 9 | Antwerp | 20 | 20 | 21.1 | -1.1 | 21 | 32.8 | -11.8 | -1 | -11.7 | +10.7 | 27 | 20.0 | +7.0 |
| 10 | Dender | 20 | 28 | 27.5 | +0.5 | 50 | 43.9 | +6.1 | -22 | -16.4 | -5.6 | 17 | 19.8 | -2.8 |
| 11 | Cercle Brugge | 18 | 17 | 21.3 | -4.3 | 35 | 31.6 | +3.4 | -18 | -10.3 | -7.7 | 12 | 19.5 | -7.5 |
| 12 | Gent | 20 | 17 | 22.4 | -5.4 | 33 | 38.6 | -5.6 | -16 | -16.2 | +0.2 | 23 | 19.0 | +4.0 |
| 13 | Standard Liège | 20 | 12 | 20.7 | -8.7 | 28 | 34.7 | -6.7 | -16 | -14.0 | -2.0 | 18 | 18.5 | -0.5 |
| 14 | KV Kortrijk | 18 | 19 | 19.1 | -0.1 | 37 | 32.0 | +5.0 | -18 | -12.9 | -5.1 | 15 | 17.8 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden | 18 | 21 | 20.0 | +1.0 | 39 | 31.8 | +7.2 | -18 | -11.8 | -6.2 | 13 | 17.6 | -4.6 |
| 16 | K. Beerschot V.A. | 18 | 13 | 16.7 | -3.7 | 43 | 37.9 | +5.1 | -30 | -21.2 | -8.8 | 2 | 13.2 | -11.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Westerlo | 5 | 11 | 15.3 | -4.3 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | +3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 5 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | +7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 3 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | +8 | 3.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | -3 | 2.6 | -5.6 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 |
| 5 | Mechelen | 5 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | Sporting Charleroi | 5 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | +6 | 1.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Sint-Truiden | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | KV Kortrijk | 5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | +4 | 0.4 | +3.6 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 9 | Genk | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Dender | 5 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | +0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Anderlecht | 5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Standard Liège | 5 | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 2 | 7.3 | -5.3 | -1 | -2.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Gent | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 15 | 8.9 | +6.1 | -12 | -2.6 | -9.4 | 0 | 5.7 | -5.7 |
| 14 | Antwerp | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -2.2 | +0.2 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 15 | K. Beerschot V.A. | 5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | +1 | -3.4 | +4.4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 5 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | -9 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
Antwerp overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, with 57 goals from chances worth 53.1 xG, a gap of 3.9. Anderlecht and Dender were next on 1.9.
Standard Liège underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, with 27 goals from chances worth 47.4 xG, a shortfall of 20.4. Cercle Brugge were next on 14.3.
Genk were the luckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, with 81 points from performances worth 68.3 xPts, 12.7 more than their chances deserved. Union Saint-Gilloise were next on 10.0.
Cercle Brugge were the unluckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, with 39 points from performances worth 51.4 xPts, 12.4 short of what they deserved. Westerlo were next on 9.5.
Club Brugge would be top of the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 82.7 xPts from 92.3 xG created and 43.0 conceded across 40 matches. Union Saint-Gilloise were next on 73.0.
Club Brugge created the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, 92.3 from 40 matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Genk were next on 76.3.
KV Kortrijk created the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, 40.4 from 36 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. K. Beerschot V.A. were next on 40.5.
Dender conceded the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, 72.0 from 40 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. K. Beerschot V.A. were next on 69.3.
Union Saint-Gilloise conceded the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2024/2025, 41.1 from 40 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Club Brugge were next on 43.0.
Belgian Pro League teams averaged 1.51 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 311 matches played, and scored 1.38 goals a game from it.
Belgian Pro League teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.70 a game against 1.31 away, a home advantage of +0.38.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 40 | 86 | 92.3 | -6.3 | 42 | 43.0 | -1.0 | +44 | 49.3 | -5.3 | 82 | 82.7 | -0.7 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 40 | 71 | 70.3 | +0.7 | 28 | 41.1 | -13.1 | +43 | 29.2 | +13.8 | 83 | 73.0 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Genk | 40 | 69 | 76.3 | -7.3 | 44 | 53.4 | -9.4 | +25 | 22.9 | +2.1 | 81 | 68.3 | +12.7 |
| 4 | Sporting Charleroi | 40 | 55 | 67.2 | -12.2 | 46 | 50.4 | -4.4 | +9 | 16.8 | -7.8 | 58 | 64.8 | -6.8 |
| 5 | Westerlo | 39 | 68 | 74.8 | -6.8 | 64 | 66.0 | -2.0 | +4 | 8.8 | -4.8 | 50 | 59.5 | -9.5 |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 40 | 62 | 60.1 | +1.9 | 40 | 57.8 | -17.8 | +22 | 2.3 | +19.7 | 61 | 56.6 | +4.4 |
| 7 | Mechelen | 39 | 61 | 62.7 | -1.7 | 56 | 62.2 | -6.2 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 49 | 54.8 | -5.8 |
| 8 | Cercle Brugge | 36 | 39 | 53.3 | -14.3 | 57 | 53.3 | +3.7 | -18 | 0.0 | -18.0 | 39 | 51.4 | -12.4 |
| 9 | OH Leuven | 40 | 39 | 48.4 | -9.4 | 52 | 60.8 | -8.8 | -13 | -12.4 | -0.6 | 45 | 49.6 | -4.6 |
| 10 | Antwerp | 40 | 57 | 53.1 | +3.9 | 50 | 63.9 | -13.9 | +7 | -10.8 | +17.8 | 55 | 48.5 | +6.5 |
| 11 | Standard Liège | 40 | 27 | 47.4 | -20.4 | 43 | 60.5 | -17.5 | -16 | -13.1 | -2.9 | 46 | 46.7 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Gent | 40 | 45 | 47.9 | -2.9 | 65 | 68.1 | -3.1 | -20 | -20.2 | +0.2 | 48 | 44.8 | +3.2 |
| 13 | Dender | 40 | 53 | 51.1 | +1.9 | 72 | 72.0 | +0.0 | -19 | -20.9 | +1.9 | 45 | 44.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Sint-Truiden | 36 | 50 | 50.4 | -0.4 | 66 | 59.1 | +6.9 | -16 | -8.7 | -7.3 | 41 | 43.8 | -2.8 |
| 15 | KV Kortrijk | 36 | 40 | 40.4 | -0.4 | 63 | 55.2 | +7.8 | -23 | -14.8 | -8.2 | 37 | 41.9 | -4.9 |
| 16 | K. Beerschot V.A. | 36 | 36 | 40.5 | -4.5 | 70 | 69.3 | +0.7 | -34 | -28.8 | -5.2 | 24 | 33.3 | -9.3 |