Inside a CricStatz VIP Card: How a Warner Park Ladder Returned 10.73 Points

On 1 September 2026, CricStatz VIP tipster Paul Krishnamurty posted a five-leg card on St Kitts and Nevis Patriots against Barbados Royals in the Caribbean Premier League at Warner Park, Basseterre. Every leg won: 3 points staked, 10.73 points profit.

A winning card is easy to admire after the scorecard is in. This is how it looked before the first ball: what went into the channel, why each price was too big, and what members could take from it.

The card

Four of the five legs were one idea backed at rising thresholds, a ladder on both sides posting a big total. The fifth was a separate line on sixes. The stakes shrank as the prices grew, so the shortest rung carried the card.

Barbados Royals made 217 for 4 and St Kitts and Nevis chased 220 for 4 with five balls left. Both innings cleared every rung, and the match produced 32 sixes against a line of 17.5. Odds are those available when the tip was posted.

What members saw in the channel

The post carried stakes, prices and bookmakers, and the reasoning went out with it. This was Krishnamurty's note to members:

I've been lining bets up for Warner Park but been frustrated by the weather. Tonight looks fine.

Sixes: The last four produced at least 20, as did 8/12 since start of the 2023 season. Add in three T20Is in 2025 and that becomes 10/15, with today's 17.5 line beaten 11/15.

Runs: Btts 170 lands 9/15; btts 190 lands 5/15; btts 200 lands 3/15; btts 210 lands 2/15. All comfortably beating today's odds.

That is an argument about the ground, not a hunch about two teams. The last line is the one that matters: the case was never that each outcome was likely, only that each was more likely than its price said. Only the second is a reason to bet.

The weather line matters too. A ground profile is worth nothing if the match is cut short, and the card was held back for several days until a dry night was forecast.

Why Warner Park

Warner Park is a small ground with a true surface and a quick outfield, and its six count shows it. Across the 16 men's T20 matches there since the start of 2023 in our ball-by-ball records, it averaged 22.7 sixes a match and cleared 17.5 in 11 of them, 69 per cent.

The run before this match was stronger still: 20, 22, 25 and 24 sixes in the last four. None of them would have lost the over 17.5 line.

Our own count of the run thresholds agrees with the shape of Krishnamurty's. Across the 20 men's T20 matches at the ground since 2023, both sides reached 170, 190, 200 and 210 in 12, 8, 6 and 3 of them. His numbers differ slightly because his set of matches differs; the conclusion is the same. The full match-by-match breakdown is on the Warner Park ground page.

Were the prices value?

This is where the card was won. Here is every leg against what Warner Park had produced before this match.

Every leg was priced below the ground's own rate. The top rung shows it best: 35/1 says a 2.8 per cent chance, for something Warner Park had done about one game in seven, more than five times as often. That is why 0.1pt on it was worth having.

None of this says a 60 per cent rate is a promise about one night. It says the price was too big, and that is the only thing a bettor can act on.

How the ladder works

A ladder backs one idea at several thresholds instead of picking a single line.

• The anchor. The biggest stake goes on the shortest, most likely rung. Both teams to 170 at 15/8 took a full point and funded the rest.
• The rungs above. Each higher line takes a smaller stake at a longer price: 0.3pt on 190, 0.1pt each on 200 and 210.
• The side bet. Sixes go with a high-scoring game but settle on their own, so they took their own 1.5pt at evens.

Had both teams finished in the 170s, the anchor alone would still have shown a profit on the card. The ladder needs only the bottom rung; everything above it is cheap upside.

How the match went

St Kitts won the toss and bowled. Quinton de Kock made 106 from 59 balls for Barbados, with 11 fours and six sixes, and Zachary Carter's 57 from 37 balls, seven of them sixes, took the Royals to 217 for 4.

That settled the 170 and 190 rungs and left 200 and 210 needing the chase to keep pace. Johnson Charles hit 78 from 51 balls with seven sixes, Dasun Shanaka added 36 and Kyle Mayers 30, and St Kitts got home at 220 for 4 with five balls to spare.

The Royals cleared the top rung by seven runs. The 32 sixes nearly doubled the 17.5 line, with 61 boundaries in all, the highest six count in the ground's recent run.

Good bet or lucky bet?

Five from five will look like a hot streak whatever the thinking behind it. What is worth taking from it is the process:

• The edge came from data anyone could read. The work was checking it, not assuming it.
• The stakes matched the confidence. Ten times more went on the 15/8 anchor than on the 35/1 rung.
• The conditions came last. The card waited for a dry forecast, because the ground profile only applies to a full match.
• One card proves little. A 69 per cent line still loses about three times in ten. Judge a method over many bets, not one night.

Following CricStatz VIP

CricStatz VIP is the Statz cricket tips channel on Telegram, tipped by Ed Hawkins, Paul Krishnamurty and Richard Mann. Cards go into the channel in full before the match, with the stakes, prices and the reasoning behind them, as this one did.

Every tip is then settled on the CricStatz tips tracker, winners and losers. One 10.73 point night tells you much less than the full record does, so start there. You can join from the CricStatz VIP page.

Bet responsibly

18+. Betting should be entertainment: never stake more than you can afford to lose, and take a break if it stops being fun. Free, confidential support is available from BeGambleAware.