No, Zrinjski have taken 7 points over their last 6 Europa Conference League games, within 0.16 of the 7.16 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Zrinjski create 1.21 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Europa Conference League games, 7.26 in all, and have scored 8 goals from those chances, 0.74 more than that xG would expect.
Zrinjski allow 1.68 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Europa Conference League games, 10.10 in all, and have conceded 10 goals from those chances, 0.10 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Nemanja Bilbija has the most expected goals (xG) for Zrinjski over their last 6 Europa Conference League games, 2.27 xG in 5 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Mario Cuze is next with 1.25 xG.
Zrinjski's results and their chances agree, within 0.2 points of xPts over 6 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 7.26 | 8 | +0.74 | 10.10 | 10 | +0.10 | 7.16 | 7 | -0.16 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.35 | 3 | -1.35 | 9.54 | 10 | -0.46 | 4.52 | 4 | -0.52 |
| Home | 3 | 6.02 | 8 | +1.98 | 2.75 | 2 | +0.75 | 6.07 | 7 | +0.93 |
| Away | 3 | 1.24 | 0 | -1.24 | 7.35 | 8 | -0.65 | 1.09 | 0 | -1.09 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec | Europa Conference League | SK Rapid (H) | 1-1 | 1.52 | 0.60 | 2.05 | 1 | W |
| 11 Dec | Europa Conference League | Raków (A) | 1-0 | 0.73 | 1.73 | 0.70 | 0 | L |
| 27 Nov | Europa Conference League | Häcken (H) | 2-1 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.38 | 3 | L |
| 6 Nov | Europa Conference League | Dynamo Kyiv (A) | 6-0 | 0.41 | 2.07 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 23 Oct | Europa Conference League | Mainz (A) | 1-0 | 0.10 | 3.55 | 0.04 | 0 | L |
| 2 Oct | Europa Conference League | Red Imps (H) | 5-0 | 2.91 | 0.56 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitalie Damașcan | attacker | 4 | 124 | 0.13 | 1 | +0.87 | 0.09 |
| Slobodan Jakovljevic | defender | 3 | 270 | 0.17 | 1 | +0.83 | 0.06 |
| Leo Mikic | attacker | 6 | 211 | 0.79 | 1 | +0.21 | 0.34 |
| Duje Dujmovic | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.16 |
| Mario Cuze | attacker | 4 | 223 | 1.25 | 1 | -0.25 | 0.50 |
| Nemanja Bilbija | attacker | 5 | 371 | 2.27 | 2 | -0.27 | 0.55 |
| Igor Savic | midfielder | 5 | 397 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.12 |