Updated 5 November 2026.
The FA Cup 1st Round brings a League Two side up against a National League one as Gillingham host Barrow at MEMS Priestfield Stadium on Saturday 7 November, with kick-off at 3pm UK time. Barrow are the lower-league visitors but arrive having already come through two games against Gloucester City to reach this stage, while Gillingham have won five of their last ten games.
Our model gives Gillingham a 50% chance of winning, with Barrow on 24% and the draw on 26%.
Gillingham have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten games. In the league they won 4-1 at Rotherham on 10 October, then lost 3-1 at Accrington, drew 1-1 at home to Port Vale and went down 4-1 at home to Grimsby. The most recent result was a 2-1 win at Shrewsbury on 31 October, so they come into the cup tie on a win, though they have conceded ten goals across their last five league games. Our projection has them scoring 1.64 goals and landing 4.76 shots on target.
Barrow have lost one of their last ten games, winning seven and drawing two, and they are unbeaten in the last nine. They needed a replay to get past Gloucester City, drawing 0-0 at home before winning 2-0 away on 20 October. In the National League they won 3-2 at Halifax Town on 27 October and drew 1-1 at home to Eastleigh four days later, and they have scored in four of their last five games. We project them at 1.07 goals and 3.23 shots on target.
Barrow have won each of their last three away games, at Tamworth, Gloucester City and Halifax Town, scoring seven goals and conceding three across them, while Gillingham have not won either of their last two at home, a 1-1 draw with Port Vale and a 4-1 defeat to Grimsby.
Gillingham possible starting lineup:
Wright; Smith, Beckles, Freeman, Dobbs; Coleman, Brophy, McManus; Waldock, Sillah, Chapman Hale
Barrow possible starting lineup:
Winterbottom; Oakley, Benjamin, Kalambayi, Latty-Fairweather; Marriott, Harper, Ward; Allen, Cameron, Thompson
We back Gillingham to win, and the best price is 1.91 at midnite. The draw is 3.60 and Barrow are 3.75, both at midnite. Over 2.5 goals is 1.80 at bet365 and both teams to score is 1.73 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 1.91 (midnite) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.60 (midnite) | 26% |
| Barrow win | 3.75 (midnite) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (midnite) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 76% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, which is the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Gillingham the more likely winners at 50%. A 1-0 home win is next at 10%, then 2-1 at 10%. Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 34% of our simulations and Barrow in 19%, and we give both teams to score a 54% chance. Over 1.5 goals is 76%, and after 1-0 and 2-1 the next likeliest scores are 2-0 at 9% and 0-0 at 7%. We project Gillingham for 12.6 shots and 5.3 corners against 8.9 shots and 3.9 corners for Barrow, and the visitors for 1.84 yellow cards to Gillingham's 1.55.
Gillingham vs Barrow in the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round kicks off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 November 2026. The match is at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham's home ground, and we make Gillingham 50% to win.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Gillingham vs Barrow in the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round, the likeliest scoreline at 12%. We still make Gillingham the more likely winners at 50%, with Barrow at 24% and the draw at 26%.
Gillingham are favourites in the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie against Barrow, with a 50% win chance in our model and a best price of 1.91 at midnite. Barrow are rated at 24% and the draw at 26%.
We give both teams to score a 54% chance in Gillingham vs Barrow, the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie. The best price is 1.73 at midnite, and over 2.5 goals is 51% in our model at 1.80 with bet365.
Gillingham have won 5 of their last 10 games before the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie with Barrow, including a 2-1 win at Shrewsbury on 31 October. Before that they lost 4-1 at home to Grimsby and drew 1-1 with Port Vale.
Barrow have lost 1 of their last 10 games before the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie at Gillingham, winning 7. They beat Gloucester City 2-0 in a cup replay on 20 October and drew 1-1 with Eastleigh on 31 October.
Predicted lineups for Gillingham vs Barrow in the 2026/27 FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026: Gillingham may start Wright; Smith, Beckles, Freeman, Dobbs; Coleman, Brophy, McManus; Waldock, Sillah, Chapman Hale. Barrow may start Winterbottom; Oakley, Benjamin, Kalambayi, Latty-Fairweather; Marriott, Harper, Ward; Allen, Cameron, Thompson.