Updated 6 November 2026.
Estrela Amadora host Benfica at the Estádio José Gomes on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 20:30 UK. Benfica are 2nd in Liga Portugal on 25 points from 10 games, with eight wins. Estrela are 12th on 10 points and have lost their last four in the league. The visitors have scored more goals per game than anyone in the division, while the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season. We give Benfica a 72% chance of winning.
Estrela have lost their last four league games: 2-1 at Moreirense on 31 October, 2-0 at home to Casa Pia, 1-0 at Arouca and 2-0 at home to Ac. Viseu. Before that came a 3-3 draw at Rio Ave. They have scored 15 and conceded 19 in 10 games, and they sit 12th in the Liga Portugal table.
Estrela have the highest both-teams-to-score rate in the league at 70%, and they are 2nd for over 2.5 goals at 70%. They average 1.5 goals a game, the 4th most, and 4 shots on target a game, the 7th most. At the other end they have the lowest clean-sheet rate in the division at 0%, and they concede 1.9 a game.
Benfica have won nine of their last 10 in all competitions, losing only one. Their last four were a 3-1 win over Lech Poznań in the Europa League on Thursday, a 1-0 win over Alverca in the league, a 2-1 win at Santa Clara and a 4-1 win at Omonia. They score 2.7 a game, the most in the league, concede 0.8 (the 5th fewest) and have kept a clean sheet in half their games. They also lead the division for corners at 7.3 a game and for over 2.5 goals at 80%, and they rank 2nd for shots on target at 6.2 a game.
Estrela Amadora possible starting lineup:
Linck; Scholze, Leković, Luan Patrick, Mincarelli Davin; Höög Jansson, Ferreira Serra; Marcus, Zvonarek, Stoica; Antonetti
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Soares; Bah, Araújo, Circati, Dahl; Palhinha, Aursnes; Lukébakio, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis has had 2+ shots in 10 straight league games, averaging 3.2 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 for 2+ shots against an Estrela defence that has conceded 19 in 10.
Gianluca Prestianni has had a shot in all 10 of Benfica's league games and averages 3.4 a game.
For Estrela, Abraham Marcus has had at least one shot in all 10 league games, at two a game, and is 1.18 at bet365 to make it 11. Lovro Zvonarek has had a shot in eight straight games (1.67 at bet365) and has committed a foul in all 10, at 1.4 a game.
João Palhinha has committed a foul in six straight games at 1.8 a game, and Samuel Dahl has made at least one tackle in four in a row, averaging 4.5.
We back Benfica to win, and the bookmakers agree: the best price is 1.28 at Ladbrokes, with Estrela at 11.00 at Midnite and the draw at 6.50 at Coral. We give Benfica a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Estrela 11%. Over 2.5 goals is 1.44 at bet365, and both teams to score is 1.83 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora win | 11.00 (Midnite) | 11% |
| Draw | 6.50 (Coral) | 17% |
| Benfica win | 1.28 (Ladbrokes) | 72% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 (bet365) | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 67% |
Our model projects 2.54 goals for Benfica and 0.9 for Estrela, with the visitors projected 19 shots to the hosts' 10. We predict a 0-2 away win, the likeliest single scoreline at 10%, with 1-2 and 0-3 next. We give Benfica a 41% chance of a clean sheet and Estrela 8%.
Prediction: Estrela Amadora 0-2 Benfica
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal kicks off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 8 November 2026 at the Estádio José Gomes, with 12th-placed Estrela hosting 2nd-placed Benfica after 10 games each.
We predict a 0-2 away win for Estrela Amadora vs Benfica in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, the single likeliest scoreline at 10%. We give Benfica a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Estrela Amadora 11%, with 2.54 goals projected for the visitors.
We give both teams to score in Estrela Amadora vs Benfica a 55% chance in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, with the best price 1.83 at Ladbrokes. Estrela have the league's highest both-teams-to-score rate at 70%, while Benfica's is 50%.
We give over 2.5 goals a 67% chance in Estrela Amadora vs Benfica in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, priced 1.44 at bet365. Benfica have gone over 2.5 in 80% of their league games, the highest rate in the division, and Estrela in 70%.
Before Estrela Amadora vs Benfica in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, Abraham Marcus has had at least one shot in 10 straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.18 at bet365 to extend the run. Lovro Zvonarek has had a shot in 8 straight.
Before Estrela Amadora vs Benfica, Benfica are 2nd in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal table with 25 points from 10 games (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Estrela Amadora are 12th on 10 points after 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats.
Predicted lineups for Estrela vs Benfica in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal on Sunday 8 November 2026: Estrela Amadora may start Linck; Scholze, Leković, Luan Patrick, Mincarelli Davin; Höög Jansson, Ferreira Serra; Marcus, Zvonarek, Stoica; Antonetti. Benfica may start Soares; Bah, Araújo, Circati, Dahl; Palhinha, Aursnes; Lukébakio, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.