RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

RB Leipzig host Elversberg at Red Bull Arena on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 14:30 UK, with 7th in the Bundesliga table meeting 6th. Leipzig have the better attack and the shorter price, but they arrive on the back of two heavy defeats in four days. Elversberg, a point ahead of them in the standings, have just won a seven-goal thriller.

We make Leipzig clear favourites. The question is whether a side that has conceded ten goals in two games can tighten up against a visitor that has won 4-3 twice in its last five league games.

How the teams arrive

RB Leipzig sit 7th on 9 points from six games, with three wins and three defeats and a goal difference of plus five. They have scored 16, which is the 2nd most in the division, and they keep clean sheets in half their games, the 2nd highest rate. They also average 6.5 shots on target a game, the 4th most shots on target in the league.

The recent run has been swingy. Leipzig beat Frankfurt 6-0 and PSV 1-0, then lost 6-1 at Bayern and 4-1 at Real Madrid on Wednesday. Before the Frankfurt win they had lost 2-0 at Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of their league games, the 4th highest rate in the Bundesliga.

Elversberg are 6th on 10 points, with three wins, a draw and two defeats, and 12 goals scored against 11 conceded. They beat Augsburg 4-3 last time out, after a 1-0 loss at Union Berlin and a goalless draw at Schalke. In September they also had a 4-3 win at Gladbach. Both teams have scored in 67% of Elversberg's games, the 5th highest rate in the league, and Elversberg concede 1.83 a game, the same as Leipzig.

Elversberg take the 6th fewest shots on target at 4.67 a game and commit 11.7 fouls a game, the 7th most. They also pick up 2.17 cards a game, the 7th most.

Predicted lineups

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; El Aynaoui, Reitz; Gruda, Nkunku, Nusa; Gomis

Elversberg possible starting lineup:
Kristof; Pinckert, Sirch, Rohr, Günther; Poręba, Keidel; Petkov, Krattenmacher, Schmahl; Mokwa

Players to watch

Antonio Nusa has had a shot in all six Leipzig games this season, averaging 2.2, and he is 1.02 at bet365 to have one again. Brajan Gruda has done the same in four straight at two a game, priced at 1.05.

Neil El Aynaoui has made at least one tackle in four straight games and averages 2.3, and centre-back Willi Orbán has matched the run at two a game. David Raum has made two or more tackles in four of his last five, with 12 across that stretch.

For Elversberg, Łukasz Poręba has committed a foul in six straight games and is 1.36 at midnite to make it seven. Lukas Petkov has made a tackle in all six games at 3.3 a game.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back RB Leipzig, who are 1.44 at bet365 to win. Our model gives them a 73% chance, with 12% for Elversberg and 15% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to Leipzig, with 3-1 a fraction behind it. A 2-1 home win is our prediction, and we expect both teams to score.

Leipzig are projected to take 23 shots to Elversberg's 11, and we expect 2.9 goals from the hosts to 1.2 from the visitors.

For a player-market builder, Poręba to commit a foul, Gruda to commit a foul and Raum to make two or more tackles are our three legs. Poręba and Gruda have both committed a foul in each of their last five games, and Raum has made two or more tackles in four of them.