Updated 5 November 2026.
Borussia Dortmund host Elversberg at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday 7 November, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. Dortmund are 2nd in the Bundesliga and still unbeaten after eight games, with five wins and three draws. Elversberg sit 7th, with the Bundesliga's 8th-highest scoring attack and 16 goals conceded. Our model makes Dortmund clear favourites, with a 72% chance of the home win.
Dortmund have 18 points from eight games, 14 scored, 1.75 a game and the 9th most in the league, and only 6 conceded. That makes them the league's stingiest defence at 0.75 goals against per game, and they've kept a clean sheet in 63% of their matches, the highest rate in the division. They drew 2-2 at Bayern on 31 October and beat Betis 2-1 in the Champions League on Wednesday. The league game before Bayern was a 1-0 home win over Frankfurt, and the one before that a goalless draw at Union Berlin. They commit 10 fouls a game, the 4th fewest in the league.
Elversberg's numbers are much more open. They're 7th in the Bundesliga on 13 points from four wins, one draw and three defeats, with 16 scored and 16 conceded. Their 4-1 win over Mainz last Friday came a week after a 4-0 defeat at RB Leipzig, and before that they beat Augsburg 4-3 at home. Both teams have scored in 63% of their games, the 7th highest rate in the league, and 75% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, also the 7th highest. They have the 5th fewest shots on target in the league, 4.38 a game.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson; Svensson, Bellingham, Nmecha; Nwaneri, Beier, Silva
Elversberg possible starting lineup:
Kristof; Sirch, Rohr, Pinckert, Günther; Poręba, Keidel, Petkov; Krattenmacher, Onyeka, Mokwa
Maximilian Beier has had a shot in five straight Dortmund league games, averaging 2.2 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 to make it six.
Ethan Nwaneri has also had a shot in five straight league games, and he has hit the target in four of his last five. A shot on target is 1.73 at bet365.
For Elversberg, Łukasz Poręba has committed a foul in all eight league games, 1.8 a game, and the price is 1.25 at bet365. Lukas Petkov has made at least one tackle in all eight, averaging 2.8, and is 1.10 at bet365 to make it nine.
Elversberg's Maurice Krattenmacher has had a shot in four straight and is 1.20 to extend it. For Dortmund, Waldemar Anton has made at least one tackle in seven straight league games, averaging 2 a game.
We back Dortmund to win, at 1.33 with Coral, and our model gives them a 72% chance.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 1.33 (Coral) | 72% |
| Draw | 6.00 (bet365) | 17% |
| Elversberg win | 8.50 (bet365) | 11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 67% |
We predict Dortmund 2-0. The model projects 2.55 goals for the home side and 0.91 for Elversberg. Dortmund keep a clean sheet 40% of the time in our model. Over 2.5 goals is a 67% chance and both teams to score is 56%.
Dortmund vs Elversberg in the 2026/27 Bundesliga season kicks off at 14:30 UK on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Signal Iduna Park, with Dortmund 2nd on 18 points and Elversberg 7th on 13 points after eight games.
We predict a 2-0 Dortmund win in Dortmund vs Elversberg in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, with the model giving the hosts a 72% chance of victory, the draw 17% and an Elversberg win 11%.
Dortmund are heavy favourites against Elversberg in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, with our model at 72% and the best price 1.33 at Coral, against 8.50 at bet365 for an Elversberg win.
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance in Dortmund vs Elversberg in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, with bet365 at 1.62, and over 2.5 goals is a 67% chance at 1.36.
Dortmund are 2nd in the 2026/27 Bundesliga on 18 points from eight games and unbeaten, while Elversberg are 7th on 13 points with four wins and three defeats.
In Dortmund vs Elversberg in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, Maximilian Beier has had a shot in five straight league games, averaging 2.2 a game, and Łukasz Poręba has committed a foul in all 8 of Elversberg's league games.
Dortmund's predicted XI features Kobel, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bellingham, Nmecha, Beier and Silva, while Elversberg's has Kristof, Sirch, Rohr, Poręba, Krattenmacher, Onyeka and Mokwa.