Updated 24 October 2026.
Atalanta host Frosinone at the Gewiss Stadium on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 14:00 UK. Frosinone arrive 6th on 13 points from seven games, while Atalanta are 11th on nine, with three wins and four defeats behind them.
The hosts are still the favourites, and we project 21.79 shots for Atalanta to 14.79 for Frosinone. Frosinone have scored 13 goals this season to Atalanta's 10, though, and they come to Bergamo off a 4-2 win over Sassuolo.
Atalanta have lost their last two, 2-0 at Ajax in the Europa Conference League on Thursday and 3-2 at AC Milan in the league the Sunday before. Before those came a pair of home wins, 3-1 over Pafos FC and 3-1 against Venezia, and a 2-0 defeat at Juventus in September. All three defeats in that run came away from home.
In the Serie A table they sit 11th with 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Both teams have scored in 71% of their matches, the 4th highest rate in the league, and 71% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest. They also win few corners, 3.43 a game, the 4th fewest.
Frosinone average 1.86 goals a game, the 6th most in Serie A, and have conceded 9 in seven, 1.29 a game, the 8th fewest. They have won three of their last five league games, most recently the 4-2 win over Sassuolo, with the one defeat a 3-0 loss at Napoli. Before that came a 2-0 win over Como, a 1-1 draw at Genoa and a 3-2 win over Venezia.
The visitors average 15.71 fouls a game, the most in the division, and they keep clean sheets in 29% of matches, the 6th highest rate. They also win 5.43 corners a game, the 5th most.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Obrić, Bernasconi; Éderson, Gaetano, Elmas; Rowe, De Ketelaere, Krstović
Frosinone possible starting lineup:
Palmisani; Oyono, Cittadini, Calvani, Bracaglia; Calò, Masini; Ghedjemis, Schmid, Kvernadze; Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo has committed a foul in seven straight league games, averaging 1.9 a game, and he is 1.28 at Ladbrokes to make it eight. His team-mate Giorgio Cittadini has done the same, averaging 1.4 fouls a game, and he is 1.18 at bet365. He has also made a tackle in each of those seven games, 3 a game on average.
Éderson has had a shot in five straight league games for Atalanta, and he is 1.20 at bet365 to extend that. He has also fouled twice or more in three straight, at 2.75 with Coral.
Nikola Krstović has had a shot in five straight league games, averaging 2.8 a game.
Back on the Frosinone side, Farès Ghedjemis has had a shot in five straight league games, averaging 2.2 a game, and is 1.06 at Coral. Giacomo Calò has taken two or more shots in four straight league games, 3.5 a game, and is 2.00 at Ladbrokes.
We back Atalanta to win at 1.80 with bet365, and our model gives them a 58% chance, with the draw and a Frosinone win both at 21%. A Frosinone win is 3.80 at bet365 and the draw is 4.33 at Coral. On goals, both teams to score is 1.44 with Ladbrokes, over 1.5 goals is 1.11 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.40 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 1.80 (bet365) | 58% |
| Draw | 4.33 (Coral) | 21% |
| Frosinone win | 3.80 (bet365) | 21% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 69% |
We make it 2-1 to Atalanta, the likeliest single scoreline. We project 2.24 goals for the hosts and 1.30 for Frosinone, with both teams scoring in about two games in three. A 1-1 draw is the second most likely scoreline, so a draw is in play, though Atalanta are clearly the likelier winners.
A four-leg builder from the player markets pairs Calò to have a shot, Calvani to make two tackles, Éderson to commit a foul and Raimondo to commit a foul. All four have cleared those lines in each of their last five games. The best prices are 1.22 for Calò at Coral, 1.67 for Calvani at bet365, 1.36 for Éderson at Ladbrokes and 1.28 for Raimondo at Ladbrokes.
Kick-off at the Gewiss Stadium is 14:00 UK on Sunday 25 October 2026.
We predict Atalanta 2-1 Frosinone. A 1-1 draw is the second most likely scoreline.
Atalanta are favourites. Our model gives them a 58% chance of winning, and bet365 price them at 1.80.
We make it 66% for both teams to score, with Ladbrokes at 1.44. Over 2.5 goals is 69% in our model, with bet365 at 1.40.
Antonio Raimondo and Giorgio Cittadini of Frosinone have each committed a foul in seven straight league games. For Atalanta, Éderson and Nikola Krstović have both had a shot in five straight league games.
Frosinone are 6th with 13 points from seven games. Atalanta are 11th with nine points from seven.
Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Obrić, Bernasconi; Éderson, Gaetano, Elmas; Rowe, De Ketelaere, Krstović. Frosinone: Palmisani; Oyono, Cittadini, Calvani, Bracaglia; Calò, Masini; Ghedjemis, Schmid, Kvernadze; Raimondo.