Updated 11 November 2026.
Montenegro host Latvia in UEFA Nations League League C on Thursday 12 November, with kick-off at 19:45 UK. The hosts sit 1st in the group on 10 points from four games, unbeaten with three wins and a draw. Latvia are 4th, a single point from four, having already lost to Montenegro 2-1 in this campaign.
Montenegro have scored in three of those four games, while Latvia have managed two goals in total. Our model gives the home side a 65% chance of winning.
Montenegro have taken 10 points from 12 in the Nations League, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their last outing was a 0-0 home draw with Armenia, after a 2-1 win in Latvia, a 3-2 win in Armenia and a 2-1 win over Cyprus. They average 1.75 goals a game, and both teams have scored in 75% of their games. Their shots on target come in at 4.75 a game.
Latvia's run is rougher. They lost 2-1 away to Cyprus last time out, after a 2-1 home defeat to Montenegro, a 0-0 home draw with Cyprus and a 2-0 defeat away to Armenia. Eight of their last ten games were draws or defeats. They average 0.5 goals a game and 1 shot on target a game. At the other end they concede 1.5 a game.
Our model projects Montenegro for 1.89 goals and 12.71 shots against 0.74 goals and 7.23 shots for Latvia, and gives the hosts a 48% chance of a clean sheet.
Montenegro possible starting lineup:
Popovic; Roganovic, Vujacic, Rubezic, Marusic; Adžić, Bulatovic, Vuković; Haksabanovic, Krstović, Osmajic
Latvia possible starting lineup:
Matrevics; Jurkovskis, Balodis, Melniks, Cernomordijs; Ciganiks, Zelenkovs, Strods; Daskevics, Vapne, Gutkovskis
Nikola Krstović has had two or more shots on target in four straight games, and at least two shots in each of those four, averaging 4.5 a game. Two shots on target is 1.95 at Ladbrokes, and a single shot on target is 1.20 at Ladbrokes and Coral.
Milutin Osmajic has committed a foul in four consecutive games and is 1.4 at Midnite to make it five. Alongside him, Andrija Bulatovic has fouled in three straight and is 1.25 at Midnite.
For Latvia, Vladislavs Gutkovskis has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.09 at Midnite to extend it. Antonijs Cernomordijs has committed two or more fouls in three straight and is 2.30 at Midnite to do it again.
We back Montenegro to win at 1.29 with bet365. Over 1.5 goals is 1.22 at bet365, and both teams to score is 2.38 at the same book.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Montenegro win | 1.29 (bet365) | 65% |
| Draw | 5.75 (Coral) | 21% |
| Latvia win | 11.00 (Ladbrokes) | 14% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 (bet365) | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 49% |
We predict Montenegro 1-0 Latvia, with 2-0 only a shade behind it. A draw is possible, with 1-1 the third likeliest scoreline, though we make a home win far more likely. A Montenegro bet builder could use Krstović to have a shot on target at 1.20 (Ladbrokes, Coral), Osmajic to commit a foul at 1.40 (Midnite) and Vasilije Adžić to commit a foul at 1.33 (Midnite). Adžić has fouled in four of his last five games.
Montenegro vs Latvia in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C kicks off at 19:45 UK on Thursday 12 November 2026. Montenegro are the home side and lead their group on 10 points from 4 games, while Latvia are 4th with 1 point.
We predict Montenegro 1-0 Latvia in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C fixture on 12 November. Our model gives the hosts a 65% chance of winning, with the draw at 21% and a Latvia win at 14%.
Montenegro are clear favourites at 1.29 with bet365 for the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 match against Latvia, who are 11.00 at Ladbrokes. Our model also backs the hosts, giving them a 65% chance of a win.
We give both teams to score a 44% chance in Montenegro vs Latvia in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, with the price at 2.38 at bet365. Latvia have scored only 2 goals in 4 games, while Montenegro have scored 7.
Nikola Krstović has had 2 or more shots on target in 4 straight games for Montenegro going into the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 match against Latvia. He has also had 2 or more shots in each of those games, averaging 4.5 a game.
Montenegro are 1st in their UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C group on 10 points from 4 games, while Latvia are 4th on 1 point. Montenegro have won 3 and drawn 1, and Latvia have lost 3 and drawn 1.
Predicted lineups for Montenegro vs Latvia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026: Montenegro may start Popovic; Roganovic, Vujacic, Rubezic, Marusic; Adžić, Bulatovic, Vuković; Haksabanovic, Krstović, Osmajic. Latvia may start Matrevics; Jurkovskis, Balodis, Melniks, Cernomordijs; Ciganiks, Zelenkovs, Strods; Daskevics, Vapne, Gutkovskis.