Updated 26 October 2026.
Flamengo host Atlético Mineiro at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on Monday 26 October (23:00 UK), the league's highest-scoring side against its 3rd-best defence. Flamengo are 2nd on 67 points from 31 games, Atlético Mineiro are 6th on 50, a gap of 17 points.
Flamengo score more than anyone in the league at 1.97 a game and have the most shots on target too. Atlético Mineiro concede only 1.13 a game, the 3rd fewest, but we project 2.08 goals for Flamengo in this match.
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last ten games in all competitions, with six wins and four draws. Three of their last five were draws, including a 0-0 with Estudiantes on Friday in the Copa Libertadores. In the league they picked up a 3-0 win at Bahia on 18 October, after a 1-0 home win over Fluminense.
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the league, and they concede just 0.81 a game, the 2nd fewest. Their shots on target average 5.65 a game, the most in the division, and 61% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 4th highest figure.
Atlético Mineiro have won three of their last five in all competitions. They beat Santos 2-1 and Coritiba 1-0 in the league, and put three past Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana, but lost the return 2-0 on Wednesday. Across their last ten in all competitions they have six wins, two draws and two defeats.
They concede 1.13 a game, the 3rd fewest, and score 1.35 a game, the 9th most. They are also the least-carded side in the league at 1.87 a game, and commit 11.58 fouls, the 3rd fewest.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Rossi; Varela, Ortiz, Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Pulgar, Jorginho; Carrascal, Lino, Plata; Pedro
Atlético Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Delfim; Franco, Lyanco, Vitão, Renan Lodi; Maycon, Castaño; Minda, Victor Hugo, Bernard; Reinier
Samuel Lino has had a shot in seven straight games and a shot on target in five, averaging 3.6 shots a game across the run. A shot on target is 1.30 at Ladbrokes.
Erick Pulgar has committed a foul in four straight games, averaging 2.3 a game across the run, and 1+ fouls is 1.20 at Midnite.
On the Atlético Mineiro side, Bernard has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2.5 a game, and is 1.36 at bet365. Alan Minda has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 1.5 a game, and is 1.20 at Coral. Vitão has made a tackle in four straight games, averaging 1.5 a game, and 1+ tackles is 1.40 at Ladbrokes.
We back Flamengo, who are 1.35 at Coral to win, and we give them a 66% chance. Atlético Mineiro are 9.50 at Ladbrokes, and we make their chance 12%, with the draw at 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo to win | 1.35 (Coral) | 66% |
| Draw | 5.25 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Atlético Mineiro to win | 9.50 (Ladbrokes) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 55% |
We project 2.08 goals for Flamengo and 0.79 for Atlético Mineiro. The likeliest single score is 2-0 at 12%, with 1-0 at 11% and 1-1 at 10% next, so a draw is in play. We give Flamengo a 45% chance of a clean sheet. We predict a 2-0 home win.
The match is at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on Monday 26 October 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
We predict a 2-0 win for Flamengo, the likeliest score at 12%. A draw is in play, with 1-1 at 10%.
Flamengo are favourites at 1.35 with Coral, and we give them a 66% chance of winning, against 22% for the draw and 12% for Atlético Mineiro.
We make both teams to score 49%, and the best price is 1.95 at bet365. We give over 2.5 goals 55%, and the best price is 1.57 at bet365.
Samuel Lino has had a shot in seven straight games and a shot on target in five, and Erick Pulgar has committed a foul in four straight.
Flamengo are 2nd on 67 points from 31 games, and Atlético Mineiro are 6th on 50 points.
Flamengo: Rossi; Varela, Ortiz, Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Pulgar, Jorginho; Carrascal, Lino, Plata; Pedro. Atlético Mineiro: Delfim; Franco, Lyanco, Vitão, Renan Lodi; Maycon, Castaño; Minda, Victor Hugo, Bernard; Reinier.