Updated 23 October 2026.
Houston Dynamo welcome Minnesota United to Shell Energy Stadium on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 1:30am UK time. These two shared a 2-2 draw in Minnesota only a fortnight ago, and the rematch comes with the hosts 5th in the Western Conference on 47 points and the visitors 13th on 34.
Houston concede 1.3 goals a game, the 5th fewest in MLS, while Minnesota concede 1.83, the 10th most, and we put both teams to score at 60%.
Houston have won once in their last ten, drawing six and losing three, and the last three were all draws: 2-2 with Dallas, 3-3 at San Diego and 2-2 at Minnesota. Before that came a 0-2 home loss to Sporting KC and a 2-2 with Cincinnati. They have won 13 and lost 9 of their 30, with 41 goals scored and 39 conceded, so the 5th place in the Western Conference rests on a solid defence. Houston rank 5th fewest for goals against and have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games, the 4th highest rate in the league. Only 43% of their matches have seen both sides score, the lowest in MLS.
Minnesota lost five in a row, then drew with Houston and drew 2-2 at Colorado before a 3-2 home win over St. Louis on 17 October. Their two most recent defeats were 3-1 at Seattle and 3-2 at home to LA Galaxy. They have scored 47 and let in 55 across 30 matches, and 73% of their games have seen both teams score, the 5th highest figure in the division. They also win plenty of corners, averaging 5.27 a game, the 9th most.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Bond; Negri, Halter, Resch, Ennali; Artur, Herrera; Bouzat, Bogusz, Guilherme; Foster
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Callender; Valerius, DÃaz, Duggan, Markanich Jr.; Trapp, Gene; Caldeira, Hlongwane, Jackson; Yeboah
Mateusz Bogusz has had two or more shots in ten straight games, averaging 3.8, and is 1.17 at midnite to keep it going. Team-mate Guilherme is on a similar run of eight, averaging 3.4 shots, and is 1.17 at bet365 to keep it going.
Kelvin Yeboah leads Minnesota's line and has had three or more shots in three games running, averaging 4.7 across them. He has also put a shot on target in each of those three and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
Owen Gene has committed a foul in 15 straight games, averaging 1.7, and is 1.29 at midnite to do it again. Wil Trapp has had a shot in each of his last five games and is 1.73 at midnite to have another.
We make Houston the likelier winner at 40%, and bet365 has them at 2.10. Minnesota are at 33% and the draw at 27%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 2.10 (bet365) | 40% |
| Draw | 3.60 (bet365) | 27% |
| Minnesota United win | 3.25 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 55% |
We expect 1.53 goals from Houston and 1.37 from Minnesota. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, with 2-1 to Houston next, though we make Houston the more likely winner. Our prediction is Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United.
Kick-off at Shell Energy Stadium is 1:30am UK time on Sunday 25 October 2026.
We predict Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, though we make Houston the more likely winner at 40%.
Houston are favourites. Bet365 has them at 2.10, with Minnesota at 3.25 and the draw at 3.60, and our model gives Houston a 40% chance to win.
We put both teams to score at 60%. Minnesota have seen both sides score in 73% of their games, while Houston's figure is the lowest in MLS at 43%.
Mateusz Bogusz of Houston has had two or more shots in ten straight games, and Kelvin Yeboah of Minnesota has had three or more shots in three in a row.
Houston Dynamo are 5th in the Western Conference on 47 points from 30 games. Minnesota United are 13th on 34 points.
Houston: Bond; Negri, Halter, Resch, Ennali; Artur, Herrera; Bouzat, Bogusz, Guilherme; Foster. Minnesota: Callender; Valerius, DÃaz, Duggan, Markanich Jr.; Trapp, Gene; Caldeira, Hlongwane, Jackson; Yeboah.