Updated 13 October 2026.
Chicago Fire host Philadelphia Union at Soldier Field in Major League Soccer on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 01:30 UK. It pairs a home side sitting 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a visiting side that has not lost in its last ten and has won each of its last seven.
Both sides score freely. Chicago score 1.82 a game while Philadelphia average 2.00. Neither defence has been hard to beat, which is why this one looks like a game with goals at both ends.
Chicago Fire are 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 48 points from 28 games, built on 14 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats. They have scored 51 and conceded 40. They come in on a three-game winning run after a poor spell.
That run started with a 1-0 win at Charlotte, followed by a 3-1 home win over Vancouver and a 2-1 win over NYCFC on 10 October. Before that came a 3-0 loss at Nashville SC and a 2-1 home defeat to New England. At home they have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games, and both teams have scored in 71% of their matches.
Philadelphia Union are 6th with 42 points from 28 games: 12 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, 56 goals scored and 45 conceded. Their form is the story. Seven straight wins have followed a draw-heavy patch, and the last five have brought 20 goals for and 6 against.
They beat Cincinnati 5-0, won 5-0 at San Diego, edged a 4-3 game at Sporting KC, beat Orlando City 4-2 and then overcame RSL 2-1 on 10 October. They also commit 15.50 fouls a game.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Brady; Dean, Elliott, Mbokazi, Barroso; Salétros, Oregel; Zinckernagel, Haile-Selassie, Bamba; Lewandowski
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Westfield, Pierre, Harriel, Wagner; Sullivan, Lukić, Jean Jacques; Vassilev, Iloski, Damiani
Milan Iloski has had two or more shots in 16 straight games and averages 4.6 shots a game. He has also had a shot on target in seven in a row and is 1.30 at Ladbrokes to make it eight.
Anton Salétros has had at least one shot in each of his last five games and averages 1.8 a game. He is 1.40 at bet365 for a shot, and 2.63 for two or more.
Jack Elliott, a centre-back, has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.44 at bet365 to take another.
Robert Lewandowski has had a shot in seven straight games and averages 2.1 a game in that stretch.
Bruno Damiani has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 3.0 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 to keep it going. He has also committed a foul in 11 straight, at 2.7 a game.
We back Chicago Fire, who are 2.40 at bet365 to win at home. Philadelphia Union are 2.50 and the draw is 4.00.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 2.40 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Philadelphia Union win | 2.50 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 67% |
We expect 1.86 goals from Chicago and 1.59 from Philadelphia. The likeliest score is 1-1, a result the model gives a 10% chance, so a draw is in play, though we make Chicago the more likely winner. Both teams to score is a 68% chance, and 75% of Chicago's games have gone over 2.5 goals, which fits that picture.
On the player side, Iloski's shot run and Salétros' consistency give two clear angles.
Our prediction: Chicago Fire 1-1 Philadelphia Union.
Kick-off at Soldier Field is 01:30 UK on Thursday 15 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw, though we make Chicago Fire slightly more likely to win than Philadelphia Union.
Chicago Fire are favourites at 2.40 with bet365, against 2.50 for Philadelphia Union and 4.00 for the draw. We give Chicago a 43% chance of winning.
We give both teams to score a 68% chance. It is 1.40 at bet365, and both teams have scored in 71% of Chicago's games.
In the Eastern Conference, Chicago Fire are 3rd with 48 points from 28 games. Philadelphia Union are 6th with 42 points from 28.
Milan Iloski of Philadelphia Union has had two or more shots in 16 straight games and a shot on target in seven in a row.
Chicago Fire: Brady; Dean, Elliott, Mbokazi, Barroso; Salétros, Oregel; Zinckernagel, Haile-Selassie, Bamba; Lewandowski. Philadelphia Union: Blake; Westfield, Pierre, Harriel, Wagner; Sullivan, Lukić, Jean Jacques; Vassilev, Iloski, Damiani.