Värnamo have taken 11.5 points fewer than their chances warranted over 30 games: +0.7 goals against their xG, and -4.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/ | 30 | 35.30 | 36 | +0.70 | 64.71 | 69 | -4.29 | 27.50 | 16 | -11.50 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.00 | 14 | +1.00 | 30.24 | 32 | -1.76 | 6.77 | 4 | -2.77 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.86 | 7 | +2.14 | 15.70 | 17 | -1.30 | 2.66 | 4 | +1.34 |
| Home | 15 | 16.93 | 17 | +0.07 | 31.96 | 31 | +0.96 | 13.83 | 11 | -2.83 |
| Away | 15 | 18.37 | 19 | +0.63 | 32.75 | 38 | -5.25 | 13.67 | 5 | -8.67 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov | Allsvenskan | Sirius (A) | 3-1 | 0.78 | 4.05 | 0.15 | 0 | L |
| 3 Nov | Allsvenskan | Mjällby (H) | 0-5 | 0.51 | 3.91 | 0.10 | 0 | L |
| 25 Oct | Allsvenskan | Djurgården (A) | 6-2 | 0.61 | 4.07 | 0.11 | 0 | L |
| 19 Oct | Allsvenskan | Bromma (H) | 1-1 | 1.00 | 1.52 | 1.01 | 1 | L |
| 5 Oct | Allsvenskan | AIK (A) | 2-3 | 1.96 | 2.15 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 28 Sep | Allsvenskan | Malmö FF (A) | 3-2 | 0.70 | 1.35 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 22 Sep | Allsvenskan | Halmstad (H) | 1-2 | 2.01 | 3.12 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 14 Sep | Allsvenskan | Öster (A) | 4-3 | 2.09 | 2.93 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Allsvenskan | IFK Göteborg (A) | 1-0 | 1.98 | 2.33 | 1.21 | 0 | L |
| 24 Aug | Allsvenskan | Häcken (H) | 1-5 | 1.36 | 4.81 | 0.20 | 0 | L |
| 18 Aug | Allsvenskan | Degerfors (H) | 3-2 | 2.00 | 1.51 | 1.69 | 3 | W |
| 11 Aug | Allsvenskan | Elfsborg (A) | 2-2 | 0.73 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 1 | L |
| 2 Aug | Allsvenskan | GAIS (H) | 2-2 | 0.67 | 2.59 | 0.36 | 1 | L |
| 27 Jul | Allsvenskan | Hammarby (H) | 2-3 | 1.09 | 2.77 | 0.52 | 0 | L |
| 21 Jul | Allsvenskan | Norrköping (A) | 3-1 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.10 | 0 | L |
| 13 Jul | Allsvenskan | Djurgården (H) | 1-0 | 0.65 | 2.56 | 0.36 | 3 | L |
| 5 Jul | Allsvenskan | Hammarby (A) | 1-0 | 0.41 | 1.34 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 29 Jun | Allsvenskan | Elfsborg (H) | 0-0 | 1.57 | 0.49 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 1 Jun | Allsvenskan | Mjällby (A) | 2-0 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 0 | W |
| 24 May | Allsvenskan | Öster (H) | 1-1 | 1.08 | 0.99 | 1.42 | 1 | W |
| 18 May | Allsvenskan | Häcken (A) | 2-0 | 0.40 | 2.21 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 15 May | Allsvenskan | Malmö FF (H) | 2-2 | 0.94 | 2.36 | 0.58 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Allsvenskan | GAIS (A) | 1-1 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 0.83 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Allsvenskan | Halmstad (A) | 4-2 | 1.24 | 1.57 | 1.15 | 0 | L |
| 27 Apr | Allsvenskan | Norrköping (H) | 1-3 | 1.21 | 1.55 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| 24 Apr | Allsvenskan | AIK (H) | 1-2 | 0.73 | 1.41 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 20 Apr | Allsvenskan | Bromma (A) | 3-2 | 2.22 | 2.65 | 1.18 | 0 | L |
| 13 Apr | Allsvenskan | IFK Göteborg (H) | 0-1 | 1.26 | 0.81 | 1.70 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | Allsvenskan | Degerfors (A) | 1-0 | 1.20 | 0.42 | 1.99 | 0 | W |
| 31 Mar | Allsvenskan | Sirius (H) | 1-2 | 0.85 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajdin Zeljkovic | attacker | 27 | 1773 | 0.00 | 7 | +7.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammad Alsalkhadi | attacker | 26 | 1591 | 0.00 | 4 | +4.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Antonsson | attacker | 13 | 968 | 0.00 | 4 | +4.00 | 0.00 |
| Kai Meriluoto | attacker | 12 | 758 | 0.00 | 4 | +4.00 | 0.00 |
| Otso Liimatta | midfielder | 13 | 912 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Johnbosco Samuel Kalu | attacker | 13 | 785 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Frank Junior Adjei | midfielder | 15 | 828 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rufai Mohammed | defender | 17 | 1283 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Shamoun | attacker | 14 | 867 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Carl Johansson | attacker | 24 | 1647 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Thern | midfielder | 24 | 1474 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Emin Grozdanic | defender | 23 | 1891 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenan Bilalovic | attacker | 18 | 583 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Andersson | defender | 23 | 1435 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjällby | 30 | 52 | 57 | 37.1 | 18 | 49.8 | 75 | +25.2 |
| 2 | IFK Göteborg | 30 | 44.3 | 41 | 47.6 | 33 | 39.5 | 51 | +11.5 |
| 3 | Hammarby | 30 | 52.8 | 60 | 33.4 | 29 | 53.4 | 62 | +8.6 |
| 4 | Halmstad | 30 | 35.3 | 24 | 53.1 | 50 | 32.6 | 35 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Djurgården | 30 | 48.6 | 52 | 38.7 | 32 | 46.7 | 49 | +2.3 |
| 6 | AIK | 30 | 40.6 | 40 | 34.8 | 33 | 45.7 | 48 | +2.3 |
| 7 | GAIS | 30 | 51.3 | 45 | 35.8 | 30 | 50.1 | 52 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Malmö FF | 30 | 53.3 | 46 | 39.6 | 33 | 49.8 | 49 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Elfsborg | 30 | 48.8 | 45 | 49.2 | 51 | 41.1 | 40 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Norrköping | 30 | 36.2 | 40 | 54.4 | 57 | 30.9 | 29 | -1.9 |
| 11 | Öster | 30 | 38.2 | 29 | 54.8 | 48 | 31.6 | 26 | -5.6 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 30 | 39.9 | 40 | 46.8 | 47 | 37.2 | 31 | -6.2 |
| 13 | Sirius | 30 | 55.2 | 53 | 44.5 | 51 | 47.3 | 39 | -8.3 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 30 | 41 | 33 | 44.8 | 52 | 38.3 | 30 | -8.3 |
| 15 | Häcken | 30 | 51.8 | 42 | 45.5 | 50 | 44.7 | 35 | -9.7 |
| 16 | Värnamo | 30 | 35.3 | 36 | 64.7 | 69 | 27.5 | 16 | -11.5 |