Twenty-five years. That is how long Coventry City have been away from the top flight - a quarter of a century that took in administration, a drop to the fourth tier and home games played in Northampton and Birmingham. They come back on a Friday night at the Emirates, against the champions, live on Sky. The fixture computer has a sense of humour.
Frank Lampard has been Championship Manager of the Season for getting them here, and he will know exactly what this is: a free hit. Nobody expects anything from Coventry tonight, which is the only good thing about drawing Arsenal first. For Arsenal it is the opposite - a title defence starts here, at home, against a promoted side, and anything other than a comfortable win becomes a talking point by Saturday morning.
Kickoff is 8:00pm UK. The numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, which re-runs through to kickoff.
The team news that actually matters is at the back. William Saliba and Jurriën Timber are both out, which means Cristhian Mosquera partners Gabriel in a defence that has barely played together, with Ben White and Myles Lewis-Skelly either side. Arsenal will still have plenty of the ball, but this is not the back line that kept 19 clean sheets last season, and opening night is exactly when a new pairing looks unsure of itself.
Viktor Gyökeres leads the line with Ødegaard through the middle, Saka on the right and summer signing Christos Tzolis on the left. Coventry are close to full strength, Jack Rudoni their only doubt, and Lampard is expected to mirror the 4-2-3-1 with Brandon Thomas-Asante through the middle and Loum Tchaouna carrying the counter-attack.
Arsenal predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Raya; Calafiori, Gabriel, Mosquera, White; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Tzolis, Ødegaard, Saka; Gyökeres.
Coventry predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Rushworth; Dasilva, Kitching, Amenda, van Ewijk; Onyeka, Grimes; Tchaouna, Sakamoto, Wright; Thomas-Asante.
These are predicted rather than confirmed line-ups - the Statz team news page tracks every club up to kickoff.
Arsenal finished last season unbeaten in five and were champions by some distance. Coventry won three of their last five on the way to automatic promotion and were never out of the Championship's top two after September. Both arrive in form; only one of them has been playing Premier League opponents.
The model's read is emphatic: Arsenal win this in 79.8% of simulations, with a 58.2% clean-sheet chance - the highest of the opening round. Coventry win it once in twenty.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
One thing to keep in mind before you touch the player markets: these are predicted line-ups, not confirmed ones, and this is the first weekend after a World Cup summer. England went deep, and Saka is one of a number of players across the league whose fitness and minutes are a genuine question rather than a formality. He may well start. He may also get an hour, or a place on the bench if Arteta decides the opening night of a title defence is not the night to find out.
His numbers are the best on the board - 3.6 projected shots, 1.42 on target, 3+ shots at 1.67 - and if you know he is playing 90 minutes it is a fine bet. That is a big if, which is why I would not lead with it.
Christos Tzolis, on the opposite wing, is the cleaner way in. A summer signing making his home debut, no tournament in his legs, and priced at 1.53 for 1+ shot on target (3.50 for 2+) with at least one on target in four of his last five. He is not a replacement for Saka - they play different flanks - just the winger whose involvement is easier to trust tonight.
At the other end, Thomas-Asante and Tchaouna have both had a shot in each of their last five. Coventry will get their moments; whether they hit the target is another matter.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Arsenal at 1.18 is not a bet, it is a savings account with a worse rate. The interest is in the shape of the game.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 59.4% (1.57 at the time of writing), and I think that is the play. Arsenal will rack up the attempts, the makeshift back line invites Coventry to have a go, and promoted sides on their first night back are rarely disciplined for 90 minutes - they either sit too deep and get picked off, or they push and get caught. Either way the ball ends up in the box a lot.
Both teams to score is the counter-argument at 38.6%, and I understand it: Arsenal's clean-sheet number is the best on the coupon. But that number was built when Saliba was fit. Take the goals, leave the result alone.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.57.
Arsenal should win, probably comfortably, and the model's 79.8% is not wrong. But at 1.18 you are being asked to risk a lot to win a little on a night when their two best defenders are unavailable and a promoted side with nothing to lose is going to have a swing at them.
Coventry's night is about not being embarrassed on the way back after 25 years. Lampard will settle for that. I will settle for goals.