New managers get honeymoons. They rarely get them at Brentford.
Roberto De Zerbi takes charge of his first Premier League game for Tottenham on Saturday teatime, at a ground where visiting sides with grand plans have been getting bullied for years. Spurs closed last season in their best form of the campaign and the market has priced in a good chunk of optimism about the new era. The model has not: it still leans Brentford, at 41.3% against 30.2%.
Kickoff is 5:30pm UK, live on Sky. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
Brentford are close to full strength, with only Milambo doubtful, and line up as you would expect: Kelleher behind a settled back four, Thiago leading the line, Damsgaard pulling the strings.
Spurs are the unknown. Kulusevski, Xavi Simons and Odobert are all out, with Kudus a doubt, and our team news desk expects De Zerbi to go with three at the back given the centre-back depth available to him, with Tonali and Fernandes in the engine room and one of Tel or Maddison supporting Solanke. That is a lot of new information to process in one afternoon.
Brentford predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Kelleher; Hickey, Collins, Ajer, Kayode; Sangaré, Jensen; Anthony, Damsgaard, O.Dango; Thiago.
Spurs predicted XI (3-5-2): Kinsky; Van de Ven, Senesi, Van Hecke; Udogie, Gallagher, Fernandes, Tonali, Pedro Porro; Solanke, Maddison.
Spurs' closing WWDLW is the better recent line, but the model still favours Brentford at home: 1.49 projected goals to 1.25, and a 28.8% clean sheet to 22.6%. A brand new system cuts both ways, and Brentford's team-strength numbers have always held up in this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The props board here is thin, which is itself worth knowing. Among the starters, Aaron Hickey 1+ shot at 2.00 is the one the model likes, on a 55.5% projection, with Brentford's wing-backs getting forward relentlessly against a Spurs shape nobody has seen yet.
Michael Oliver takes charge, and his games run hot: 27.5 fouls and 4.25 cards a game. Mika Kayode's fouls-drawn line at 2.75 reflects that, though fouls come from our commentary data and are noisier than shots.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Brentford at 2.40 sits a shade under the model's 41.3%, so there is a small edge on the home win if you want it. I understand the temptation to oppose a brand new system on day one.
The firmer call is both teams to score at 55.2% (1.57 at the time of writing), the second-strongest BTTS number of the round. Two attacking sides, a referee who lets the game breathe, and a Spurs back three still learning each other's habits.
The bet: Both teams to score at 1.57.
De Zerbi's Spurs will be worth watching by October. Whether they are worth backing in their first away game, in a tight ground, against a side built to punish exactly this kind of afternoon, is another question entirely.
Brentford at 2.40 is defensible. Goals at both ends is the bet I actually want.