The opening round closes under the lights at Craven Cottage, which is one of the better places in the country to watch a football match and one of the worse places to be a visiting favourite.
Chelsea arrive as the model's projected third-placed side. They also arrive off the back of a closing run - LDLWL - that was worse than any of the other sides the model puts in its top four. Both of those things are true, and Monday night will tell us which one matters more.
Kickoff is 8:00pm UK, live on Sky. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
Chelsea line up 3-4-3 with Cole Palmer floating behind João Pedro and Danny Welbeck, Caicedo and Enzo Fernández anchoring, and Reece James back at wing-back. Fofana is suspended; Henderson and Emegha are doubts.
Fulham are without the suspended Andersen but otherwise have a clean bill of health, which at the end of a long opening weekend counts for something. Smith Rowe and Iwobi supply Josh King, with Berge and Charles in the double pivot.
Fulham predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Leno; Robinson, J.Cuenca, Bassey, Tete; Berge, Charles; Iwobi, Smith Rowe, King; GarcÃa.
Chelsea predicted XI (3-4-3): Sánchez; James, Lacroix, Hato; Neto, Caicedo, Enzo, Palestra; Palmer, João Pedro, Welbeck.
Fulham's WLLDW was unremarkable, Chelsea's LDLWL was worse. The projections favour the visitors clearly enough: 1.56 goals to 1.13, with a 32.3% clean sheet against 21.1%.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Everything Chelsea do runs through Cole Palmer, and the market knows it, but there is still a price worth taking. Palmer 2+ shots at 1.50 is backed by a 68.9% projection and a last-five line of three, three, zero, zero and five - when he is involved, he shoots a lot. The 3+ shots on target at 15.00 is the lottery ticket version.
Note that Palmer's rows come back as a likely starter rather than a confirmed one, which at this stage of the week is normal but worth a glance at the team news before kickoff.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Chelsea at 1.95 tracks the model's 45.6% almost exactly. No edge, no argument, no bet on the result.
Both teams to score at 1.57 is the modest lean: the model has it at 53.5%, Fulham are at home where they have always made life difficult, and Chelsea's defensive numbers last spring were not those of a team about to keep a clean sheet on a Monday night in Fulham.
The bet: Both teams to score at 1.57.
A fair price about a good team with a questionable recent record, against a home side who specialise in awkward evenings. That is a game to watch rather than a game to bet heavily on.
Take the goals, enjoy the football, and let the opening weekend close the way it started - with more happening than the favourites would like.