Montenegro host Armenia at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica, a week after winning 3-2 in Yerevan.
Montenegro have won all three in this group and every one has finished with goals at both ends and more than two and a half of them. They are first of all 54 teams on both rates, and all three wins were by a single goal.
Montenegro beat Latvia 2-1 on Friday, Armenia 3-2 before it and Cyprus 2-1 to open the group. Nine points from nine and not one clean sheet. They are sixth of 54 for scoring at 2.33 a game and thirty-third for goals conceded at 1.33, which is the arithmetic of winning every week by the minimum.
Armenia beat Latvia 2-0 and have lost the other two, 3-2 at home to Monday's opponents and 2-0 in Cyprus on Friday. The number that stands out is set pieces: they take 7.67 corners a game, third of all 54 teams, and the only sides above them are in League A. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.89 goals for Montenegro and 0.95 for Armenia, a combined 2.84, and is more cautious about the hosts than the price.
Montenegro to win is rated 59.4 per cent against a margin-free implied 64.3, a gap of nearly five points on the favourite. Armenia at 6.25 carry 18.6 against an implied 14.9.
The one line the model likes on the other side is both teams to score at 1.91, projected at 52.2 against an implied 48.5. That is a three and a half point gap and it has the fixture's whole history behind it: every Montenegro match in this group has had goals at both ends, and they have not kept a clean sheet. Over 2.5 goals, by contrast, is priced almost exactly to the model at 54.1 against 54.6.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Nikola Krstović is the fixture's most repeated name: he has hit the target in four of his last five at 1.20, and in three straight, with two or more shots in three straight as well.
Armenia's volume runs through Eduard Spertsyan, who has had two or more shots in four of his last five and in three straight, twelve in total at 2.4 a game, priced 1.33. With 7.67 corners a game behind him, Armenia get into the final third more often than their results suggest.
In the foul markets, Stefan Lončar has committed a foul in four of his last five at 1.22 and Milutin Osmajić in four of five at 1.33. Neither side fouls much as a team, both ranking fortieth of 54 at ten a game.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Montenegro have won every match in this group and beaten Monday's opponents already, and the model still has them nearly five points short of the price. The more interesting read is the other market: a side that has conceded in all three, hosting one that creates more than its results show.
The read is a Montenegro win that follows the pattern of the other three, which is to say a narrow one with goals at both ends rather than a comfortable afternoon.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.