Ukraine host Hungary at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Štadión Antona Malatinského in Slovakia, where Ukraine continue to stage their home fixtures. The first meeting, ten days ago in Budapest, finished 1-0 to Ukraine.
Both sides have scored a third of a goal a game in this competition and neither has played in a match with goals at both ends. Hungary at 3.00 is the widest model-versus-price gap on Monday's card.
Ukraine were beaten 3-0 by Northern Ireland on Friday, which was a jolt after a 0-0 in Georgia and the 1-0 win in Hungary. They lead all 54 teams in this competition for cards at 4.67 a game and are fifth for fouls at 16, while ranking forty-seventh for shots on target at 2.33. That combination is the whole team in one line.
Hungary beat Georgia 1-0 on Friday and drew 0-0 at Northern Ireland before it. They have conceded a single goal in three, which is joint second of 54, and kept two clean sheets, and none of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals. Seventh for fouls at 15 a game and seventh for cards at three. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.30 goals for Hungary and 1.24 for Ukraine, a combined 2.54, and prefers the visitors by a clear margin.
Hungary at 3.00 are rated 38 per cent against a margin-free implied 31.4. That six and a half point gap is the largest on any match-market selection on Monday. Ukraine to win runs the other way, 35.3 against an implied 39.2, so the model has the two sides closer together than the market does and tilted the other way.
The ground is part of it. Ukraine's home advantage here exists on the coupon rather than at the stadium. Under 2.5 goals is 53.2 against an implied 55.3 and both teams to score is 51.9 against 50, in a fixture where neither side has yet been in a game with scoring at both ends. Across the competition that happens in 46.6 per cent of matches.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The cards material is the strongest on Monday's card. Ukraine are first of 54 teams at 4.67 cards a game and fifth for fouls; Hungary are seventh and seventh. Four Ukrainian players are on foul streaks of three straight games: Valeriy Bondar, Danylo Sikan, Oleg Ocheretko and Yegor Nazaryna.
Hungary's are priced. Roland Sallai has committed a foul in four of his last five at 1.22 and Dominik Szoboszlai in four of five at 1.40.
At the other end, Willi Orbán has had a shot in all five of his last five, thirteen in total at 2.6 a game, priced 1.36, and two or more in three straight. A centre half leading a national side for shot volume says something about where Hungary's chances come from.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Two sides who have scored once each in three matches, foul more than almost anyone and are meeting at a neutral ground is not the setting for an open game, and the model's 2.54 says so.
The read is a tight match in which the away price looks the more generous of the two by the widest margin on the card, and the cards and fouls markets carry more of the fixture than the shots do.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.