Belarus host Finland on 6 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Belarus's last five results: D D L D W (1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss). Finland's last five: L W W D W (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 1 meetings, Belarus have won 0, Finland 0, with 1 draw.
Belarus vs Finland kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 6 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Belarus's last five results read D D L D W (oldest to newest): 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss.
Finland's last five results read L W W D W (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Across the last 1 meetings Belarus have won 0, Finland have won 0 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was Finland 0-0 Belarus on 29 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Trofim Melnichenko leads Belarus with 11 shots across their last 10 games.
Leo Walta leads Finland with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Sascha Stegemann is the referee for Belarus vs Finland, averaging 14.0 fouls and 1.5 yellow cards per game this season.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Belarus and Finland are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Finland the favourite with a 43% chance of winning, against 29% for Belarus and 28% for the draw. Projected goals are Belarus 1.0 - 1.3 Finland.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 13%. Both teams to score is 47% likely and over 2.5 goals 42%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Finland vs Belarus | 0-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Belarus 1.0 - 1.3 Finland in goals. It gives Belarus a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Finland 43%. Both teams to score is 47% likely, over 1.5 goals 68% and over 2.5 goals 42%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 13% |
| 0-1 | Finland win | 13% |
| 1-0 | Belarus win | 10% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 10% |
| 1-2 | Finland win | 9% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Belarus vs Finland, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Belarus | Fouls committed | Finland | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Yablonskiy | 13 | R. Mahuta | 10 |
| 2 | T. Melnichenko | 4 | ||
| 3 | P. Zabelin | 3 | ||
| 4 | E. Khvalko | 3 | ||
| 5 | N. Demchenko | 2 |
| # | Belarus | Shots | Finland | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Melnichenko | 11 | R. Mahuta | 2 |
| 2 | N. Demchenko | 4 | ||
| 3 | P. Zabelin | 3 | ||
| 4 | E. Yablonskiy | 3 | ||
| 5 | S. Karpovich | 1 |
| # | Belarus | Shots on target | Finland | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Demchenko | 2 | L. Walta | 10 |
| 2 | T. Melnichenko | 2 | J. Pohjanpalo | 9 |
| 3 | P. Zabelin | 1 | O. Antman | 5 |
| 4 | T. Keskinen | 4 | ||
| 5 | B. Källman | 4 |
| # | Belarus | Goals | Finland | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Demchenko | 1 | L. Walta | 5 |
| 2 | I. Tikhomirov | 1 | J. Pohjanpalo | 4 |
| 3 | O. Antman | 1 | ||
| 4 | T. Pukki | 1 | ||
| 5 | N. Pyyhtiä | 1 |
| # | Belarus | Yellow cards | Finland | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Khvalko | 2 | K. Kairinen | 2 |
| 2 | N. Korzun | 1 | M. Peltola | 1 |
| 3 | I. Tikhomirov | 1 | V. Koski | 1 |
| 4 | A. Ståhl | 1 | ||
| 5 | A. Markhiev | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Belarus vs Finland: Glen Kamara 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.44); Adrian Svanbäck 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.40); Adam Ståhl 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.30); Joel Pohjanpalo 1+ fouls (80% hit rate at 1.40). Combined odds 3.67 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 11 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.7 | 13 of 54 |
| Shots | 10.7 | 39 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 3.3 | 38 of 54 |
| Fouls | 17.7 | 2 of 54 |
| Tackles | 16.7 | 11 of 54 |
| Passes | 415 | 40 of 54 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 37 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 4.5 | 1 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.3 | 5 of 54 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 19 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.3 | 13 of 54 |
| Fouls | 13.7 | 13 of 54 |
| Tackles | 14 | 31 of 54 |
| Passes | 641 | 3 of 54 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 3 of 54 |