Estonia host Iceland at Sportland Arena, Sportland Arena on 6 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Estonia's last five results: L W D D W (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss). Iceland's last five: W L D W W (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 2 meetings, Estonia have won 0, Iceland 0, with 2 draws.
Estonia vs Iceland kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 6 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Sportland Arena, Sportland Arena.
Estonia vs Iceland is being played at Sportland Arena in Sportland Arena, the home ground of Estonia.
Estonia's last five results read L W D D W (oldest to newest): 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Iceland's last five results read W L D W W (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Across the last 2 meetings Estonia have won 0, Iceland have won 0 and 2 were drawn. The most recent was Iceland 1-1 Estonia on 26 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Robi Saarma leads Estonia with 4 shots across their last 10 games.
Orri Óskarsson leads Iceland with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
David Dickinson is the referee for Estonia vs Iceland.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Estonia and Iceland are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Iceland the favourite with a 55% chance of winning, against 21% for Estonia and 23% for the draw. Projected goals are Estonia 1.0 - 1.8 Iceland.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1, a Iceland win, at 11%. Both teams to score is 52% likely and over 2.5 goals 52%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Iceland vs Estonia | 1-1 |
| 8 Jan 2023 | Friendly International | Iceland vs Estonia | 1-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Estonia 1.0 - 1.8 Iceland in goals. It gives Estonia a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iceland 55%. Both teams to score is 52% likely, over 1.5 goals 76% and over 2.5 goals 52%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-0 (6%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Iceland win | 11% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 11% |
| 0-2 | Iceland win | 10% |
| 1-2 | Iceland win | 10% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 6% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Estonia vs Iceland, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Estonia | Fouls committed | Iceland | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Saarma | 8 | H. Magnússon | 9 |
| 2 | I. Yakovlev | 2 | D. Muminovic | 1 |
| 3 | M. Vetkal | 1 | H. Gunnlaugsson | 1 |
| 4 | J. GuðmundsÂson | 1 | ||
| 5 | A. Gunnarsson | 1 |
| # | Estonia | Shots | Iceland | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Saarma | 4 | J. GuðmundsÂson | 2 |
| 2 | I. Yakovlev | 4 | B. Helgason | 1 |
| 3 | M. Paalberg | 1 | A. Gunnarsson | 1 |
| 4 | H. Magnússon | 1 |
| # | Estonia | Shots on target | Iceland | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Saarma | 2 | J. GuðmundsÂson | 1 |
| # | Estonia | Goals | Iceland | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Saarma | 1 | O. Óskarsson | 5 |
| 2 | A. Gudjohnsen | 2 | ||
| 3 | S. Ingason | 1 | ||
| 4 | A. Gudmundsson | 1 | ||
| 5 | G. Sigurdsson | 1 |
| # | Estonia | Yellow cards | Iceland | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Saarma | 1 | H. Magnússon | 1 |
| 2 | A. Gunnarsson | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Estonia vs Iceland: Hörður Magnússon 1+ fouls (80% hit rate at 1.40). Combined odds 1.4 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1 | 32 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.3 | 4 of 54 |
| Shots | 9.3 | 43 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.3 | 16 of 54 |
| Fouls | 17.3 | 3 of 54 |
| Tackles | 13.7 | 32 of 54 |
| Passes | 374 | 46 of 54 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 15 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.3 | 5 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.3 | 3 of 54 |
| Shots | 14 | 22 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 9 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 23 of 54 |
| Tackles | 16 | 17 of 54 |
| Passes | 458 | 30 of 54 |
| Corners | 6 | 7 of 54 |