UEFA Nations League xG Table 2026/2027

How these xG numbers are calculated

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 xG table, Home

# Team Played Goals xG Goals minus xG Goals against xGA Goals against minus xGA Goal difference xGD Goal difference minus xGD Points xPts Points minus xPts
1Slovakia243.4+0.610.7+0.3+32.7+0.364.7+1.3
2Austria264.6+1.421.7+0.3+42.9+1.164.3+1.7
3Norway244.4-0.442.2+1.8+02.2-2.234.0-1.0
4Georgia202.7-2.711.4-0.4-11.3-2.313.7-2.7
5Bulgaria212.4-1.421.8+0.2-10.6-1.613.2-2.2
6Sweden252.6+2.422.2-0.2+30.4+2.663.0+3.0
7Slovenia222.2-0.202.0-2.0+20.2+1.842.9+1.1
8Armenia242.0+2.031.9+1.1+10.1+0.932.9+0.1
9Turkey212.8-1.852.8+2.2-40.0-4.002.7-2.7
10Kosovo112.4-1.400.3-0.3+12.1-1.132.6+0.4
11Montenegro123.1-1.111.3-0.3+11.8-0.832.3+0.7
12Albania122.1-0.100.8-0.8+21.3+0.732.2+0.8
13Netherlands112.9-1.911.7-0.7+01.3-1.312.1-1.1
14Denmark121.9+0.100.9-0.9+21.1+0.932.1+0.9
15Faroe Islands111.5-0.510.6+0.4+00.9-0.912.1-1.1
16Spain141.4+2.610.5+0.5+30.9+2.132.1+0.9
17Germany101.4-1.410.5+0.5-10.9-1.902.0-2.0
18Hungary102.1-2.111.2-0.2-10.9-1.901.9-1.9
19Portugal112.2-1.201.4-1.4+10.8+0.231.9+1.1
20Moldova111.8-0.811.1-0.1+00.8-0.811.9-0.9
21Poland101.0-1.000.4-0.4+00.6-0.611.9-0.9
22Iceland111.8-0.811.2-0.2+00.6-0.611.8-0.8
23Finland101.0-1.000.5-0.5+00.5-0.511.8-0.8
24Italy102.0-2.022.0+0.0-20.0-2.001.4-1.4
25Lithuania111.3-0.311.3-0.3+00.0+0.011.4-0.4
26England121.5+0.531.7+1.3-1-0.1-0.901.3-1.3
27Czech Republic211.5-0.543.7+0.3-3-2.2-0.801.3-1.3
28Northern Ireland100.9-0.901.1-1.1+0-0.3+0.311.1-0.1
29Israel100.5-0.531.0+2.0-3-0.5-2.500.9-0.9
30Belgium100.9-0.911.5-0.5-1-0.6-0.400.9-0.9
31Latvia101.0-1.001.7-1.7+0-0.7+0.710.9+0.1
32Serbia222.5-0.546.7-2.7-2-4.2+2.200.9-0.9
33Gibraltar100.3-0.300.8-0.8+0-0.5+0.510.8+0.2
34Romania121.0+1.042.0+2.0-2-1.0-1.000.8-0.8
35San Marino200.7-0.7105.6+4.4-10-4.9-5.100.6-0.6
36Luxembourg100.3-0.331.9+1.1-3-1.5-1.500.4-0.4
37Scotland100.1-0.131.5+1.5-3-1.4-1.600.3-0.3
38Liechtenstein100.1-0.121.6+0.4-2-1.5-0.500.3-0.3
39Andorra110.9+0.123.3-1.3-1-2.4+1.400.3-0.3
40North Macedonia100.1-0.132.3+0.7-3-2.2-0.800.1-0.1

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 xG table, Away

# Team Played Goals xG Goals minus xG Goals against xGA Goals against minus xGA Goal difference xGD Goal difference minus xGD Points xPts Points minus xPts
1Switzerland263.8+2.200.2-0.2+63.6+2.465.2+0.8
2France222.6-0.601.9-1.9+20.6+1.463.2+2.8
3Greece233.6-0.612.7-1.7+20.9+1.163.0+3.0
4Finland173.7+3.300.0+0.0+73.7+3.332.9+0.1
5Bosnia and Herzegovina242.3+1.722.0+0.0+20.4+1.642.8+1.2
6Croatia232.6+0.452.4+2.6-20.2-2.232.8+0.2
7Malta123.3-1.310.9+0.1+12.4-1.432.6+0.4
8Netherlands123.6-1.611.1-0.1+12.5-1.532.5+0.5
9Lithuania121.6+0.400.1-0.1+21.5+0.532.5+0.5
10Iceland131.9+1.100.3-0.3+31.5+1.532.4+0.6
11Cyprus213.0-2.024.2-2.2-1-1.1+0.112.4-1.4
12Albania131.9+1.100.7-0.7+31.3+1.732.2+0.8
13England121.6+0.400.5-0.5+21.1+0.932.2+0.8
14Scotland101.5-1.500.6-0.6+00.9-0.912.1-1.1
15Montenegro131.5+1.520.6+1.4+10.9+0.132.0+1.0
16Republic of Ireland231.3+1.712.9-1.9+2-1.6+3.632.0+1.0
17Estonia211.7-0.712.9-1.9+0-1.3+1.321.8+0.2
18Andorra100.8-0.800.3-0.3+00.5-0.511.7-0.7
19Hungary101.1-1.100.9-0.9+00.3-0.311.6-0.6
20Wales202.3-2.334.2-1.2-3-1.9-1.101.6-1.6
21Spain131.7+1.321.5+0.5+10.1+0.931.5+1.5
22Belarus201.3-1.323.1-1.1-2-1.8-0.211.5-0.5
23Luxembourg121.4+0.611.3-0.3+10.1+0.931.4+1.6
24Belgium122.0+0.002.0-2.0+20.0+2.031.4+1.6
25Romania110.9+0.120.9+1.1-10.0-1.001.4-1.4
26Azerbaijan111.3-0.311.3-0.3+00.0+0.011.4-0.4
27Italy141.8+2.211.8-0.8+30.0+3.031.4+1.6
28Ukraine211.4-0.403.1-3.1+1-1.7+2.741.4+2.6
29Kosovo111.4-0.431.6+1.4-2-0.2-1.801.2-1.2
30Denmark121.2+0.831.6+1.4-1-0.4-0.601.1-1.1
31Northern Ireland111.2-0.201.6-1.6+1-0.4+1.431.1+1.9
32Poland111.3-0.331.7+1.3-2-0.4-1.601.1-1.1
33Kazakhstan220.8+1.232.9+0.1-1-2.2+1.211.1-0.1
34Faroe Islands111.1-0.111.8-0.8+0-0.8+0.810.9+0.1
35Germany111.7-0.712.9-1.9+0-1.3+1.310.8+0.2
36Latvia100.4-0.421.4+0.6-2-1.0-1.000.6-0.6
37North Macedonia100.5-0.521.7+0.3-2-1.1-0.900.6-0.6
38Moldova100.5-0.521.9+0.1-2-1.4-0.600.5-0.5
39Portugal121.0+1.012.8-1.8+1-1.8+2.830.5+2.5
40Israel110.3+0.733.0+0.0-2-2.7+0.700.1-0.1

UEFA Nations League xG Table Questions

Which UEFA Nations League team is overperforming their xG the most this season?

Spain are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, with 7 goals from chances worth 3.1 xG, a gap of 3.9. Sweden are next on 2.4.

Which UEFA Nations League team is underperforming their xG the most this season?

The Netherlands are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, with 3 goals from chances worth 6.6 xG, a shortfall of 3.6. Hungary are next on 3.2.

Which UEFA Nations League team has been the luckiest on expected points this season?

Portugal are the luckiest side in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, with 6 points from performances worth 2.4 xPts, 3.6 more than their chances deserved. Greece and Sweden are next on 3.0.

Which UEFA Nations League team has been the unluckiest on expected points this season?

Georgia and Turkey are the unluckiest sides in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, both 2.7 short of their expected points, Georgia 1 point from 3.7, Turkey no points from 2.7. Hungary are next on 2.5.

Who would be top of the UEFA Nations League on xG this season?

Switzerland would also be top of the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 5.2 xPts from 3.8 xG created and 0.2 conceded across two matches. Finland and Slovakia are next on 4.7.

Which UEFA Nations League team has the most xG this season?

The Netherlands have created the most xG in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, 6.6 from two matches, 3.3 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Finland are next on 4.7.

Which UEFA Nations League team has the least xG this season?

Liechtenstein have created the least xG in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, 0.1 from one match, 0.1 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Gibraltar are next on 0.3.

Which UEFA Nations League team has conceded the most xG this season?

Serbia have conceded the most xG in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, 6.7 from two matches, 3.4 a game against a competition average of 1.3. San Marino are next on 5.6.

Which UEFA Nations League team has conceded the least xG this season?

Switzerland have conceded the least xG in the UEFA Nations League in 2026/2027, 0.2 from two matches, 0.1 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Finland are next on 0.5.

What is the average xG per game in the UEFA Nations League this season?

UEFA Nations League teams have averaged 1.33 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 52 matches played, and have scored 1.20 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.34 xG a game in 2024/2025.

Do UEFA Nations League teams create more xG at home or away this season?

UEFA Nations League teams create as much xG at home as away in 2026/2027, 1.33 a game at each, against +0.45 in 2024/2025.

UEFA Nations League player expected goals

The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.

  • UEFA Nations League Player xG Stats 2026/2027

UEFA Nations League pages

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UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 xG table

# Team Played Goals xG Goals minus xG Goals against xGA Goals against minus xGA Goal difference xGD Goal difference minus xGD Points xPts Points minus xPts
1 Switzerland 2 6 3.8 +2.2 0 0.2 -0.2 +6 3.6 +2.4 6 5.2 +0.8
2 Finland 2 7 4.7 +2.3 0 0.5 -0.5 +7 4.2 +2.8 4 4.7 -0.7
3 Slovakia 2 4 3.4 +0.6 1 0.7 +0.3 +3 2.7 +0.3 6 4.7 +1.3
4 Netherlands 2 3 6.6 -3.6 2 2.8 -0.8 +1 3.8 -2.8 4 4.6 -0.6
5 Albania 2 5 4.0 +1.0 0 1.5 -1.5 +5 2.6 +2.4 6 4.5 +1.5
6 Austria 2 6 4.6 +1.4 2 1.7 +0.3 +4 2.9 +1.1 6 4.3 +1.7
7 Montenegro 2 5 4.6 +0.4 3 1.9 +1.1 +2 2.7 -0.7 6 4.3 +1.7
8 Iceland 2 4 3.7 +0.3 1 1.6 -0.6 +3 2.1 +0.9 4 4.2 -0.2
9 Norway 2 4 4.4 -0.4 4 2.2 +1.8 +0 2.2 -2.2 3 4.0 -1.0
10 Kosovo 2 2 3.8 -1.8 3 1.9 +1.1 -1 1.8 -2.8 3 3.9 -0.9
11 Lithuania 2 3 2.9 +0.1 1 1.4 -0.4 +2 1.5 +0.5 4 3.9 +0.1
12 Georgia 2 0 2.7 -2.7 1 1.4 -0.4 -1 1.3 -2.3 1 3.7 -2.7
13 Hungary 2 0 3.2 -3.2 1 2.1 -1.1 -1 1.2 -2.2 1 3.5 -2.5
14 England 2 4 3.2 +0.8 3 2.2 +0.8 +1 1.0 +0.0 3 3.5 -0.5
15 Spain 2 7 3.1 +3.9 3 2.1 +0.9 +4 1.0 +3.0 6 3.5 +2.5
16 Denmark 2 4 3.2 +0.8 3 2.5 +0.5 +1 0.7 +0.3 3 3.2 -0.2
17 France 2 2 2.6 -0.6 0 1.9 -1.9 +2 0.6 +1.4 6 3.2 +2.8
18 Bulgaria 2 1 2.4 -1.4 2 1.8 +0.2 -1 0.6 -1.6 1 3.2 -2.2
19 Greece 2 3 3.6 -0.6 1 2.7 -1.7 +2 0.9 +1.1 6 3.0 +3.0
20 Sweden 2 5 2.6 +2.4 2 2.2 -0.2 +3 0.4 +2.6 6 3.0 +3.0
21 Poland 2 1 2.2 -1.2 3 2.0 +1.0 -2 0.2 -2.2 1 3.0 -2.0
22 Slovenia 2 2 2.2 -0.2 0 2.0 -2.0 +2 0.2 +1.8 4 2.9 +1.1
23 Faroe Islands 2 2 2.5 -0.5 2 2.4 -0.4 +0 0.2 -0.2 2 2.9 -0.9
24 Armenia 2 4 2.0 +2.0 3 1.9 +1.1 +1 0.1 +0.9 3 2.9 +0.1
25 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 4 2.3 +1.7 2 2.0 +0.0 +2 0.4 +1.6 4 2.8 +1.2
26 Croatia 2 3 2.6 +0.4 5 2.4 +2.6 -2 0.2 -2.2 3 2.8 +0.2
27 Italy 2 4 3.8 +0.2 3 3.8 -0.8 +1 0.0 +1.0 3 2.8 +0.2
28 Germany 2 1 3.1 -2.1 2 3.4 -1.4 -1 -0.4 -0.6 1 2.8 -1.8
29 Turkey 2 1 2.8 -1.8 5 2.8 +2.2 -4 0.0 -4.0 0 2.7 -2.7
30 Malta 1 2 3.3 -1.3 1 0.9 +0.1 +1 2.4 -1.4 3 2.6 +0.4
31 Scotland 2 0 1.6 -1.6 3 2.1 +0.9 -3 -0.5 -2.5 1 2.4 -1.4
32 Portugal 2 3 3.2 -0.2 1 4.2 -3.2 +2 -1.0 +3.0 6 2.4 +3.6
33 Cyprus 2 1 3.0 -2.0 2 4.2 -2.2 -1 -1.1 +0.1 1 2.4 -1.4
34 Belgium 2 2 2.9 -0.9 1 3.5 -2.5 +1 -0.6 +1.6 3 2.3 +0.7
35 Moldova 2 1 2.3 -1.3 3 3.0 +0.0 -2 -0.7 -1.3 1 2.3 -1.3
36 Northern Ireland 2 1 2.0 -1.0 0 2.7 -2.7 +1 -0.7 +1.7 4 2.2 +1.8
37 Romania 2 3 2.0 +1.0 6 2.9 +3.1 -3 -0.9 -2.1 0 2.1 -2.1
38 Andorra 2 1 1.7 -0.7 2 3.6 -1.6 -1 -1.9 +0.9 1 2.1 -1.1
39 Republic of Ireland 2 3 1.3 +1.7 1 2.9 -1.9 +2 -1.6 +3.6 3 2.0 +1.0
40 Estonia 2 1 1.7 -0.7 1 2.9 -1.9 +0 -1.3 +1.3 2 1.8 +0.2
41 Luxembourg 2 2 1.7 +0.3 4 3.1 +0.9 -2 -1.4 -0.6 3 1.8 +1.2
42 Wales 2 0 2.3 -2.3 3 4.2 -1.2 -3 -1.9 -1.1 0 1.6 -1.6
43 Latvia 2 0 1.4 -1.4 2 3.1 -1.1 -2 -1.7 -0.3 1 1.5 -0.5
44 Belarus 2 0 1.3 -1.3 2 3.1 -1.1 -2 -1.8 -0.2 1 1.5 -0.5
45 Azerbaijan 1 1 1.3 -0.3 1 1.3 -0.3 +0 0.0 +0.0 1 1.4 -0.4
46 Ukraine 2 1 1.4 -0.4 0 3.1 -3.1 +1 -1.7 +2.7 4 1.4 +2.6
47 Czech Republic 2 1 1.5 -0.5 4 3.7 +0.3 -3 -2.2 -0.8 0 1.3 -1.3
48 Kazakhstan 2 2 0.8 +1.2 3 2.9 +0.1 -1 -2.2 +1.2 1 1.1 -0.1
49 Israel 2 1 0.8 +0.2 6 4.0 +2.0 -5 -3.2 -1.8 0 1.0 -1.0
50 Serbia 2 2 2.5 -0.5 4 6.7 -2.7 -2 -4.2 +2.2 0 0.9 -0.9
51 Gibraltar 1 0 0.3 -0.3 0 0.8 -0.8 +0 -0.5 +0.5 1 0.8 +0.2
52 North Macedonia 2 0 0.6 -0.6 5 4.0 +1.0 -5 -3.3 -1.7 0 0.7 -0.7
53 San Marino 2 0 0.7 -0.7 10 5.6 +4.4 -10 -4.9 -5.1 0 0.6 -0.6
54 Liechtenstein 1 0 0.1 -0.1 2 1.6 +0.4 -2 -1.5 -0.5 0 0.3 -0.3

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