Al Taawoun have the biggest shortfall in the Saudi Pro League: 3 points from chances worth 9.6 xPts, a gap of 6.6. At the other end, Al Ittihad have taken 17 points from an xPts figure of 12.0, 5.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadsiah | 4 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | +2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| 2 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 3 | NEOM SC | 4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 3 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Al Nassr | 3 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Al Ettifaq | 4 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | -2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 7 | Al Hilal | 3 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Al Taawoun | 4 | 0 | 6.9 | -6.9 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -6 | -0.2 | -5.8 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 |
| 9 | Al Draih | 4 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | -3 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 4 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | -4 | -1.7 | -2.3 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 3 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | +4 | 1.2 | +2.8 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 12 | Al Faisaly | 4 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Al Riyadh | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Abha | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Al Hazm | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 17 | Al Fateh | 3 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.6 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 3 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -4.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 4 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | +15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 4 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Al Kholood | 4 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 |
| 4 | Al Draih | 3 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 5 | Al-Qadsiah | 3 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +6 | 2.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | -5 | -1.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Al Hazm | 4 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -4.2 | +2.2 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Al Ittihad | 3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 9 | NEOM SC | 3 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 10 | Al Ettifaq | 3 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -0.9 | +2.9 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
| 11 | Al Shabab | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 12 | Al Fateh | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -5 | -2.9 | -2.1 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Abha | 4 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | Al Taawoun | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 15 | Al-Fayha | 4 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | -2 | -4.4 | +2.4 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Al Khaleej | 3 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Al Riyadh | 4 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | -7 | -6.9 | -0.1 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 18 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -4 | -5.2 | +1.2 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 5 | 16 | 15.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | +13 | 8.9 | +4.1 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | +2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 5 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 5 | Al Kholood | 5 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | +1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 5 | 11 | 12.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 5.0 | -4.0 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 7 | NEOM SC | 5 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | Al Draih | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | +2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 1 | 7.7 | -6.7 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -8 | -1.5 | -6.5 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 11 | Al Ettifaq | 5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Abha | 5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 13 | Al Hazm | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 11.9 | -4.9 | -2 | -5.7 | +3.7 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Al Riyadh | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -4.7 | +2.7 | 8 | 4.6 | +3.4 |
| 15 | Al Fateh | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 10.7 | -3.7 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 17 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | -7 | -3.7 | -3.3 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 5 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 | +0 | -5.6 | +5.6 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
Al Nassr are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 11.6 xG, a gap of 4.4. Al Riyadh are next on 2.0.
Al Taawoun are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 3 goals from chances worth 10.4 xG, a shortfall of 7.4. Al Fateh are next on 4.5.
Al Ittihad are the luckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 17 points from performances worth 12.0 xPts, 5.0 more than their chances deserved. NEOM SC are next on 3.8.
Al Taawoun are the unluckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 9.6 xPts, 6.6 short of what they deserved. Al Shabab and Abha are next on 4.8.
Al Hilal would also be top of the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.3 xPts from 23.1 xG created and 8.1 conceded across seven matches. Al-Qadsiah are next on 14.5.
Al Hilal have created the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 23.1 from seven matches, 3.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al Ahli are next on 16.2.
Al Khaleej have created the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 4.6 from seven matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al Faisaly are next on 5.9.
Al-Fayha have conceded the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 16.1 from seven matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al Fateh are next on 14.0.
Al Nassr have conceded the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 4.9 from seven matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al-Qadsiah are next on 6.5.
Saudi Pro League teams have averaged 1.49 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 63 matches played, and have scored 1.38 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.43 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Saudi Pro League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.60 a game against 1.39 away, a home advantage of +0.21, against +0.19 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 7 | 23 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +18 | 15.1 | +2.9 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Al-Qadsiah | 7 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | +8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 16 | 14.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 7 | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | +9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 12 | 14.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 10.1 | -4.1 | +6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 17 | 12.0 | +5.0 |
| 5 | Al Ahli | 7 | 16 | 16.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | +6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 11.4 | +0.6 |
| 6 | Al Kholood | 7 | 12 | 11.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | NEOM SC | 7 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | +7 | 2.2 | +4.8 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 |
| 8 | Al Draih | 7 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 |
| 9 | Al Ettifaq | 7 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Al Taawoun | 7 | 3 | 10.4 | -7.4 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | -9 | -1.3 | -7.7 | 3 | 9.6 | -6.6 |
| 11 | Al Shabab | 7 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | -5 | -2.6 | -2.4 | 4 | 8.8 | -4.8 |
| 12 | Al Hazm | 7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 13.6 | -4.6 | -2 | -5.7 | +3.7 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Abha | 7 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | -8 | -3.9 | -4.1 | 2 | 6.8 | -4.8 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 7 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -7 | -4.2 | -2.8 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Al Fateh | 7 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | 11 | 14.0 | -3.0 | -7 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Al Faisaly | 7 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 13 | 12.6 | +0.4 | -8 | -6.7 | -1.3 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 | -8 | -7.7 | -0.3 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 11 | 16.1 | -5.1 | -4 | -8.9 | +4.9 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |