Al Najma have the biggest shortfall in the Saudi Pro League: 16 points from chances worth 25.4 xPts, a gap of 9.4. At the other end, Al Ahli have taken 81 points from an xPts figure of 65.7, 15.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 17 | 41 | 38.9 | +2.1 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | +30 | 28.7 | +1.3 | 43 | 39.4 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 17 | 46 | 39.9 | +6.1 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | +34 | 27.1 | +6.9 | 46 | 38.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 17 | 45 | 37.7 | +7.3 | 13 | 14.1 | -1.1 | +32 | 23.7 | +8.3 | 45 | 36.1 | +8.9 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 17 | 40 | 32.4 | +7.6 | 13 | 15.4 | -2.4 | +27 | 17.0 | +10.0 | 39 | 33.7 | +5.3 |
| 5 | Al Taawoun | 17 | 29 | 29.4 | -0.4 | 24 | 22.4 | +1.6 | +5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 26 | 27.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 17 | 22 | 26.8 | -4.8 | 21 | 21.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 31 | 27.0 | +4.0 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 17 | 28 | 31.0 | -3.0 | 36 | 29.2 | +6.8 | -8 | 1.8 | -9.8 | 22 | 25.4 | -3.4 |
| 8 | Al Fateh | 17 | 25 | 28.7 | -3.7 | 26 | 25.1 | +0.9 | -1 | 3.6 | -4.6 | 25 | 25.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Al Hazm | 17 | 22 | 26.6 | -4.6 | 30 | 25.1 | +4.9 | -8 | 1.5 | -9.5 | 26 | 24.5 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej | 17 | 28 | 25.1 | +2.9 | 31 | 23.2 | +7.8 | -3 | 1.9 | -4.9 | 20 | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 11 | NEOM SC | 17 | 20 | 22.4 | -2.4 | 24 | 22.9 | +1.1 | -4 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 22 | 23.8 | -1.8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 17 | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 | 20 | 21.0 | -1.0 | +2 | -2.0 | +4.0 | 24 | 22.6 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Al Riyadh | 17 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | 23 | 26.4 | -3.4 | -6 | -4.7 | -1.3 | 20 | 21.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Al Ettifaq | 17 | 26 | 21.8 | +4.2 | 26 | 28.9 | -2.9 | +0 | -7.1 | +7.1 | 27 | 20.6 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Damac FC | 17 | 18 | 17.2 | +0.8 | 20 | 21.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Al Kholood | 17 | 17 | 15.4 | +1.6 | 31 | 27.1 | +3.9 | -14 | -11.7 | -2.3 | 13 | 18.0 | -5.0 |
| 17 | Al Najma | 17 | 21 | 15.7 | +5.3 | 36 | 28.4 | +7.6 | -15 | -12.7 | -2.3 | 13 | 15.8 | -2.8 |
| 18 | Al Akhdoud | 17 | 19 | 16.1 | +2.9 | 38 | 32.1 | +5.9 | -19 | -15.9 | -3.1 | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 17 | 44 | 42.9 | +1.1 | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 | +28 | 27.6 | +0.4 | 41 | 37.0 | +4.0 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 17 | 45 | 37.7 | +7.3 | 16 | 15.1 | +0.9 | +29 | 22.7 | +6.3 | 40 | 36.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Al-Qadsiah | 17 | 43 | 35.6 | +7.4 | 21 | 23.0 | -2.0 | +22 | 12.6 | +9.4 | 38 | 30.6 | +7.4 |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 17 | 26 | 22.7 | +3.3 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 | +14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 36 | 29.6 | +6.4 |
| 5 | NEOM SC | 17 | 23 | 25.1 | -2.1 | 24 | 21.2 | +2.8 | -1 | 3.9 | -4.9 | 23 | 26.2 | -3.2 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 17 | 33 | 28.0 | +5.0 | 27 | 24.7 | +2.3 | +6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 24 | 24.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Al Khaleej | 17 | 26 | 22.3 | +3.7 | 31 | 24.8 | +6.2 | -5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 17 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 8 | Al Taawoun | 17 | 30 | 19.1 | +10.9 | 22 | 26.8 | -4.8 | +8 | -7.7 | +15.7 | 27 | 18.9 | +8.1 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 17 | 16 | 19.7 | -3.7 | 21 | 27.7 | -6.7 | -5 | -7.9 | +2.9 | 13 | 18.9 | -5.9 |
| 10 | Al Ettifaq | 17 | 25 | 20.7 | +4.3 | 29 | 32.4 | -3.4 | -4 | -11.7 | +7.7 | 23 | 18.9 | +4.1 |
| 11 | Al Fateh | 17 | 16 | 19.0 | -3.0 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 | -13 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 12 | 18.7 | -6.7 |
| 12 | Al Hazm | 17 | 16 | 17.0 | -1.0 | 27 | 24.8 | +2.2 | -11 | -7.7 | -3.3 | 16 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 17 | 19 | 17.4 | +1.6 | 34 | 26.0 | +8.0 | -15 | -8.6 | -6.4 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 17 | 22 | 19.5 | +2.5 | 30 | 28.9 | +1.1 | -8 | -9.5 | +1.5 | 20 | 17.7 | +2.3 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 17 | 18 | 21.5 | -3.5 | 40 | 32.1 | +7.9 | -22 | -10.7 | -11.3 | 10 | 17.5 | -7.5 |
| 16 | Damac FC | 17 | 14 | 13.8 | +0.2 | 35 | 28.9 | +6.1 | -21 | -15.1 | -5.9 | 11 | 14.8 | -3.8 |
| 17 | Al Akhdoud | 17 | 8 | 12.4 | -4.4 | 32 | 34.9 | -2.9 | -24 | -22.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 11.5 | -6.5 |
| 18 | Al Najma | 17 | 11 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 40 | 38.9 | +1.1 | -29 | -25.9 | -3.1 | 3 | 9.6 | -6.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadsiah | 5 | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | +13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | 15 | 11.3 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Al Ahli | 5 | 16 | 10.6 | +5.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +13 | 6.9 | +6.1 | 15 | 10.6 | +4.4 |
| 3 | Al Hilal | 5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | +7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Al Nassr | 5 | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +5 | 1.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | NEOM SC | 5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -1 | 1.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 |
| 9 | Al Ettifaq | 5 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 | +5 | -0.7 | +5.7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Al Hazm | 5 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 5 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Damac FC | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | -4 | -1.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Al Fateh | 5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 9.2 | -3.2 | -1 | -3.2 | +2.2 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 14 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Al Najma | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Al-Fayha | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Al Shabab | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 14 | 10.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -4.1 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 14 | 8.5 | +5.5 | -9 | -4.2 | -4.8 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
Al-Qadsiah overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, with 83 goals from chances worth 68.0 xG, a gap of 15.0. Al Nassr were next on 13.4.
Al Riyadh underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, with 35 goals from chances worth 43.2 xG, a shortfall of 8.2. Al Shabab and Al Fateh were next on 6.7.
Al Ahli were the luckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, with 81 points from performances worth 65.7 xPts, 15.3 more than their chances deserved. Al-Qadsiah were next on 12.7.
Al Najma were the unluckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, with 16 points from performances worth 25.4 xPts, 9.4 short of what they deserved. Al Shabab were next on 9.2.
Al Hilal would be top of the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 76.4 xPts from 81.7 xG created and 25.3 conceded across 34 matches. Al Nassr were next on 74.3.
Al Hilal created the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, 81.7 from 34 matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Nassr were next on 77.6.
Al Akhdoud created the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, 28.5 from 34 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Najma were next on 28.7.
Al Najma conceded the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, 67.3 from 34 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Akhdoud were next on 66.9.
Al Hilal conceded the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2025/2026, 25.3 from 34 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Al Ahli were next on 26.8.
Saudi Pro League teams averaged 1.43 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.50 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.42 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Saudi Pro League teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.52 a game against 1.33 away, a home advantage of +0.19, against +0.19 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 34 | 85 | 81.7 | +3.3 | 27 | 25.3 | +1.7 | +58 | 56.4 | +1.6 | 84 | 76.4 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 34 | 91 | 77.6 | +13.4 | 28 | 27.9 | +0.1 | +63 | 49.7 | +13.3 | 86 | 74.3 | +11.7 |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 34 | 71 | 60.4 | +10.6 | 25 | 26.8 | -1.8 | +46 | 33.7 | +12.3 | 81 | 65.7 | +15.3 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 34 | 83 | 68.0 | +15.0 | 34 | 38.5 | -4.5 | +49 | 29.5 | +19.5 | 77 | 64.3 | +12.7 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 34 | 55 | 54.8 | +0.2 | 48 | 46.3 | +1.7 | +7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | 55 | 51.4 | +3.6 |
| 6 | NEOM SC | 34 | 43 | 47.5 | -4.5 | 48 | 44.1 | +3.9 | -5 | 3.4 | -8.4 | 45 | 50.0 | -5.0 |
| 7 | Al Taawoun | 34 | 59 | 48.5 | +10.5 | 46 | 49.2 | -3.2 | +13 | -0.8 | +13.8 | 53 | 46.9 | +6.1 |
| 8 | Al Khaleej | 34 | 54 | 47.4 | +6.6 | 62 | 48.0 | +14.0 | -8 | -0.7 | -7.3 | 37 | 45.9 | -8.9 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44 | 50.7 | -6.7 | 57 | 56.9 | +0.1 | -13 | -6.2 | -6.8 | 35 | 44.2 | -9.2 |
| 10 | Al Fateh | 34 | 41 | 47.7 | -6.7 | 55 | 52.6 | +2.4 | -14 | -4.9 | -9.1 | 37 | 43.9 | -6.9 |
| 11 | Al Hazm | 34 | 38 | 43.6 | -5.6 | 57 | 49.8 | +7.2 | -19 | -6.2 | -12.8 | 42 | 42.8 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 41 | 36.4 | +4.6 | 54 | 47.1 | +6.9 | -13 | -10.6 | -2.4 | 38 | 40.6 | -2.6 |
| 13 | Al Ettifaq | 34 | 51 | 42.5 | +8.5 | 55 | 61.3 | -6.3 | -4 | -18.8 | +14.8 | 50 | 39.6 | +10.4 |
| 14 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 35 | 43.2 | -8.2 | 63 | 58.5 | +4.5 | -28 | -15.3 | -12.7 | 30 | 38.9 | -8.9 |
| 15 | Al Kholood | 34 | 39 | 34.8 | +4.2 | 61 | 56.0 | +5.0 | -22 | -21.2 | -0.8 | 33 | 35.7 | -2.7 |
| 16 | Damac FC | 34 | 32 | 31.0 | +1.0 | 55 | 50.5 | +4.5 | -23 | -19.4 | -3.6 | 29 | 35.3 | -6.3 |
| 17 | Al Akhdoud | 34 | 27 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 70 | 66.9 | +3.1 | -43 | -38.4 | -4.6 | 20 | 27.4 | -7.4 |
| 18 | Al Najma | 34 | 32 | 28.7 | +3.3 | 76 | 67.3 | +8.7 | -44 | -38.6 | -5.4 | 16 | 25.4 | -9.4 |