Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 3 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Paris | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Toulouse | 3 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -2 | 2.2 | -4.2 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Angers SCO | 3 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 5 | Auxerre | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Rennes | 3 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Le Havre | 3 | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | -2 | 0.3 | -2.3 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Brest | 2 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | -1 | 2.6 | -3.6 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| 10 | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | +2 | -2.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 11 | Lens | 2 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Nice | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +1 | -0.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | LOSC Lille | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| 14 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 15 | Monaco | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 |
| 16 | Troyes | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 17 | Strasbourg | 2 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.1 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
| 18 | Lorient | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 2 | Brest | 3 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Paris | 2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | Lorient | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | Monaco | 3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Lens | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Troyes | 3 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 8 | LOSC Lille | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 2.5 | -2.5 |
| 11 | Le Havre | 2 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Olympique Lyonnais | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 3 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | -1 | -2.8 | +1.8 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Toulouse | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -1.9 | +1.9 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 15 | Rennes | 2 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Angers SCO | 2 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | +2 | -1.6 | +3.6 | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | -5 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | 10.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | +1 | 5.8 | -4.8 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Paris | 5 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Brest | 5 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -1 | 4.7 | -5.7 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Lens | 5 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 6 | Toulouse | 5 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Le Havre | 5 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 |
| 10 | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Rennes | 5 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Monaco | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | +5 | -1.5 | +6.5 | 13 | 6.0 | +7.0 |
| 14 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | +4 | -2.0 | +6.0 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Troyes | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | -7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Nice | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 5 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | +0 | -3.9 | +3.9 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
Strasbourg are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 10 goals from chances worth 6.6 xG, a gap of 3.4. Monaco are next on 2.1.
Le Havre are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 8.4 xG, a shortfall of 4.4. Brest are next on 3.5.
Monaco are the luckiest side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 13 points from performances worth 6.0 xPts, 7.0 more than their chances deserved. LOSC Lille are next on 4.0.
Le Havre are the unluckiest side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 2 points from performances worth 6.7 xPts, 4.7 short of what they deserved. Brest are next on 4.0.
Paris Saint Germain would be top of Ligue 1 in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 9.8 xPts from 10.9 xG created and 5.1 conceded across five matches. Paris are next on 9.6.
Paris Saint Germain have created the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 10.9 from five matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Brest and Lens are next on 10.5.
Nice have created the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 4.8 from five matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Lorient are next on 5.8.
Olympique Marseille have conceded the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 10.6 from five matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Strasbourg are next on 10.5.
Paris have conceded the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 4.2 from five matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Olympique Lyonnais are next on 5.0.
Ligue 1 teams have averaged 1.60 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 45 matches played, and have scored 1.42 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.41 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Ligue 1 teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.74 a game against 1.46 away, a home advantage of +0.28, against +0.36 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | 10.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | +1 | 5.8 | -4.8 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Paris | 5 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Brest | 5 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -1 | 4.7 | -5.7 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Lens | 5 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 6 | Toulouse | 5 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Le Havre | 5 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 |
| 10 | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Rennes | 5 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Monaco | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | +5 | -1.5 | +6.5 | 13 | 6.0 | +7.0 |
| 14 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | +4 | -2.0 | +6.0 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Troyes | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | -7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Nice | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 5 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | +0 | -3.9 | +3.9 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |