Metz have the biggest shortfall in the Ligue 1: 17 points from chances worth 31.5 xPts, a gap of 14.5. At the other end, Lens have taken 70 points from an xPts figure of 58.6, 11.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 17 | 41 | 38.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 13.6 | -1.6 | +29 | 24.6 | +4.4 | 41 | 37.8 | +3.2 |
| 2 | Lens | 17 | 35 | 37.9 | -2.9 | 13 | 18.4 | -5.4 | +22 | 19.5 | +2.5 | 42 | 33.9 | +8.1 |
| 3 | LOSC Lille | 17 | 24 | 29.1 | -5.1 | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | +7 | 14.0 | -7.0 | 29 | 32.1 | -3.1 |
| 4 | Olympique Marseille | 17 | 41 | 30.3 | +10.7 | 20 | 17.8 | +2.2 | +21 | 12.5 | +8.5 | 37 | 31.1 | +5.9 |
| 5 | Olympique Lyonnais | 17 | 30 | 30.5 | -0.5 | 18 | 21.3 | -3.3 | +12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 37 | 28.8 | +8.2 |
| 6 | Monaco | 17 | 33 | 29.9 | +3.1 | 23 | 20.6 | +2.4 | +10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 32 | 28.5 | +3.5 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 17 | 25 | 27.8 | -2.8 | 24 | 19.5 | +4.5 | +1 | 8.2 | -7.2 | 24 | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 8 | Rennes | 17 | 30 | 29.1 | +0.9 | 17 | 22.8 | -5.8 | +13 | 6.4 | +6.6 | 34 | 28.0 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 17 | 30 | 25.6 | +4.4 | 19 | 17.9 | +1.1 | +11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Lorient | 17 | 31 | 27.5 | +3.5 | 25 | 20.1 | +4.9 | +6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 30 | 27.3 | +2.7 |
| 11 | Brest | 17 | 28 | 28.5 | -0.5 | 23 | 24.2 | -1.2 | +5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 17 | 20 | 22.5 | -2.5 | 18 | 19.9 | -1.9 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 23 | 25.6 | -2.6 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 17 | 18 | 21.6 | -3.6 | 17 | 19.8 | -2.8 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 22 | 24.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Paris | 17 | 28 | 26.0 | +2.0 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 25 | 23.7 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Nantes | 17 | 18 | 19.6 | -1.6 | 27 | 22.7 | +4.3 | -9 | -3.1 | -5.9 | 13 | 21.4 | -8.4 |
| 16 | Nice | 17 | 19 | 23.4 | -4.4 | 27 | 28.0 | -1.0 | -8 | -4.7 | -3.3 | 20 | 21.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Metz | 17 | 15 | 19.8 | -4.8 | 32 | 24.0 | +8.0 | -17 | -4.2 | -12.8 | 10 | 20.5 | -10.5 |
| 18 | Angers SCO | 17 | 18 | 18.7 | -0.7 | 20 | 24.3 | -4.3 | -2 | -5.6 | +3.6 | 23 | 19.7 | +3.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 17 | 33 | 29.6 | +3.4 | 17 | 19.7 | -2.7 | +16 | 9.9 | +6.1 | 35 | 29.6 | +5.4 |
| 2 | Olympique Marseille | 17 | 22 | 27.3 | -5.3 | 25 | 23.0 | +2.0 | -3 | 4.3 | -7.3 | 22 | 26.3 | -4.3 |
| 3 | LOSC Lille | 17 | 28 | 24.7 | +3.3 | 20 | 20.3 | -0.3 | +8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 32 | 25.9 | +6.1 |
| 4 | Lens | 17 | 31 | 29.6 | +1.4 | 22 | 25.6 | -3.6 | +9 | 4.0 | +5.0 | 28 | 24.7 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 17 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | 31 | 28.1 | +2.9 | -4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 22 | 22.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 17 | 28 | 24.1 | +3.9 | 28 | 27.4 | +0.6 | +0 | -3.2 | +3.2 | 23 | 21.2 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Olympique Lyonnais | 17 | 23 | 22.0 | +1.0 | 22 | 26.1 | -4.1 | +1 | -4.1 | +5.1 | 23 | 21.0 | +2.0 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 17 | 22 | 18.0 | +4.0 | 22 | 22.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -4.2 | +4.2 | 21 | 21.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Rennes | 17 | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 | 33 | 29.4 | +3.6 | -4 | -5.6 | +1.6 | 25 | 20.3 | +4.7 |
| 10 | Paris | 17 | 19 | 19.0 | +0.0 | 23 | 27.9 | -4.9 | -4 | -8.9 | +4.9 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 |
| 11 | Lorient | 17 | 17 | 18.3 | -1.3 | 26 | 26.7 | -0.7 | -9 | -8.4 | -0.6 | 15 | 18.1 | -3.1 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 17 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 | 27 | 26.7 | +0.3 | -11 | -10.1 | -0.9 | 12 | 17.7 | -5.7 |
| 13 | Nantes | 17 | 11 | 16.9 | -5.9 | 25 | 26.6 | -1.6 | -14 | -9.7 | -4.3 | 11 | 17.1 | -6.1 |
| 14 | Nice | 17 | 18 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 33 | 30.2 | +2.8 | -15 | -11.4 | -3.6 | 12 | 16.8 | -4.8 |
| 15 | Brest | 17 | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 | 32 | 28.2 | +3.8 | -17 | -12.8 | -4.2 | 13 | 16.2 | -3.2 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 17 | 12 | 17.5 | -5.5 | 26 | 32.3 | -6.3 | -14 | -14.8 | +0.8 | 12 | 14.9 | -2.9 |
| 17 | Angers SCO | 17 | 11 | 15.8 | -4.8 | 28 | 29.5 | -1.5 | -17 | -13.7 | -3.3 | 13 | 14.8 | -1.8 |
| 18 | Metz | 17 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | 44 | 36.3 | +7.7 | -27 | -22.0 | -5.0 | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 3.7 | -3.7 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 2 | Lens | 5 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Paris | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 5 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Nantes | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 7 | Nice | 5 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Rennes | 5 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Monaco | 5 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 5 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +1 | -1.4 | +2.4 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 13 | Lorient | 5 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | +3 | -1.4 | +4.4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 5 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | +2 | -1.4 | +3.4 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 15 | Brest | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -3.4 | -2.6 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Metz | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 13 | 8.2 | +4.8 | -7 | -2.7 | -4.3 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 5 | 11 | 5.2 | +5.8 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | +4 | -4.2 | +8.2 | 10 | 4.2 | +5.8 |
| 18 | Angers SCO | 5 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
Strasbourg overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, with 58 goals from chances worth 49.7 xG, a gap of 8.3. Paris Saint Germain were next on 6.2.
Le Havre underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, with 32 goals from chances worth 40.0 xG, a shortfall of 8.0. Nantes were next on 7.5.
Lens were the luckiest side in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, with 70 points from performances worth 58.6 xPts, 11.4 more than their chances deserved. Rennes were next on 10.7.
Nantes and Metz were the unluckiest sides in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, both 14.5 short of their expected points, Nantes 24 points from 38.5, Metz 17 points from 31.5. Auxerre were next on 7.8.
Paris Saint Germain were also top of Ligue 1 in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 67.4 xPts from 67.8 xG created and 33.3 conceded across 34 matches. Lens were next on 58.6.
Paris Saint Germain created the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, 67.8 from 34 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Lens were next on 67.5.
Metz created the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, 34.0 from 34 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Angers SCO were next on 34.5.
Metz conceded the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, 60.3 from 34 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Nice were next on 58.2.
Paris Saint Germain conceded the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2025/2026, 33.3 from 34 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. LOSC Lille were next on 35.4.
Ligue 1 teams averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.41 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.50 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Ligue 1 teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.59 a game against 1.23 away, a home advantage of +0.36, against +0.25 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 74 | 67.8 | +6.2 | 29 | 33.3 | -4.3 | +45 | 34.5 | +10.5 | 76 | 67.4 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 66 | 67.5 | -1.5 | 35 | 44.0 | -9.0 | +31 | 23.5 | +7.5 | 70 | 58.6 | +11.4 |
| 3 | LOSC Lille | 34 | 52 | 53.8 | -1.8 | 37 | 35.4 | +1.6 | +15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | 61 | 58.0 | +3.0 |
| 4 | Olympique Marseille | 34 | 63 | 57.7 | +5.3 | 45 | 40.8 | +4.2 | +18 | 16.8 | +1.2 | 59 | 57.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | Monaco | 34 | 60 | 55.4 | +4.6 | 54 | 48.7 | +5.3 | +6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 54 | 50.6 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Olympique Lyonnais | 34 | 53 | 52.4 | +0.6 | 40 | 47.4 | -7.4 | +13 | 5.1 | +7.9 | 60 | 49.8 | +10.2 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 34 | 47 | 45.8 | +1.2 | 46 | 41.8 | +4.2 | +1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 45 | 49.6 | -4.6 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 34 | 58 | 49.7 | +8.3 | 47 | 45.3 | +1.7 | +11 | 4.4 | +6.6 | 53 | 48.9 | +4.1 |
| 9 | Rennes | 34 | 59 | 53.0 | +6.0 | 50 | 52.2 | -2.2 | +9 | 0.8 | +8.2 | 59 | 48.3 | +10.7 |
| 10 | Lorient | 34 | 48 | 45.8 | +2.2 | 51 | 46.8 | +4.2 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 45 | 45.4 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Brest | 34 | 43 | 43.9 | -0.9 | 55 | 52.4 | +2.6 | -12 | -8.5 | -3.5 | 39 | 43.5 | -4.5 |
| 12 | Paris | 34 | 47 | 45.0 | +2.0 | 50 | 55.0 | -5.0 | -3 | -10.0 | +7.0 | 44 | 42.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 34 | 34 | 38.2 | -4.2 | 44 | 46.6 | -2.6 | -10 | -8.3 | -1.7 | 34 | 41.8 | -7.8 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 32 | 40.0 | -8.0 | 44 | 52.2 | -8.2 | -12 | -12.1 | +0.1 | 35 | 40.5 | -5.5 |
| 15 | Nantes | 34 | 29 | 36.5 | -7.5 | 52 | 49.2 | +2.8 | -23 | -12.7 | -10.3 | 24 | 38.5 | -14.5 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 37 | 42.2 | -5.2 | 60 | 58.2 | +1.8 | -23 | -16.1 | -6.9 | 32 | 38.2 | -6.2 |
| 17 | Angers SCO | 34 | 29 | 34.5 | -5.5 | 48 | 53.8 | -5.8 | -19 | -19.3 | +0.3 | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 32 | 34.0 | -2.0 | 76 | 60.3 | +15.7 | -44 | -26.2 | -17.8 | 17 | 31.5 | -14.5 |