Crawley Town have the biggest shortfall in the League Two: 40 points from chances worth 57.6 xPts, a gap of 17.6. At the other end, Bromley have taken 87 points from an xPts figure of 69.2, 17.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grimsby Town | 23 | 41 | 43.6 | -2.6 | 22 | 20.3 | +1.7 | +19 | 23.3 | -4.3 | 41 | 46.2 | -5.2 |
| 2 | Cambridge United | 23 | 43 | 39.6 | +3.4 | 15 | 19.3 | -4.3 | +28 | 20.3 | +7.7 | 51 | 45.0 | +6.0 |
| 3 | Barnet | 23 | 38 | 42.2 | -4.2 | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 | +9 | 18.4 | -9.4 | 36 | 42.9 | -6.9 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 23 | 38 | 38.1 | -0.1 | 24 | 24.6 | -0.6 | +14 | 13.5 | +0.5 | 41 | 40.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | Notts County | 23 | 45 | 35.8 | +9.2 | 25 | 22.9 | +2.1 | +20 | 12.9 | +7.1 | 43 | 40.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Colchester United | 23 | 35 | 38.0 | -3.0 | 23 | 22.5 | +0.5 | +12 | 15.5 | -3.5 | 36 | 40.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 | Bromley | 23 | 41 | 40.8 | +0.2 | 21 | 29.3 | -8.3 | +20 | 11.5 | +8.5 | 51 | 38.3 | +12.7 |
| 8 | Salford City | 23 | 34 | 40.3 | -6.3 | 24 | 29.1 | -5.1 | +10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 46 | 37.8 | +8.2 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 23 | 41 | 34.8 | +6.2 | 20 | 25.3 | -5.3 | +21 | 9.4 | +11.6 | 45 | 37.8 | +7.2 |
| 10 | Fleetwood Town | 23 | 34 | 36.9 | -2.9 | 34 | 30.1 | +3.9 | +0 | 6.7 | -6.7 | 33 | 35.3 | -2.3 |
| 11 | Oldham Athletic | 23 | 30 | 35.1 | -5.1 | 18 | 29.1 | -11.1 | +12 | 5.9 | +6.1 | 38 | 34.9 | +3.1 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 23 | 29 | 34.4 | -5.4 | 36 | 30.7 | +5.3 | -7 | 3.8 | -10.8 | 31 | 33.7 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 23 | 38 | 32.0 | +6.0 | 27 | 30.4 | -3.4 | +11 | 1.6 | +9.4 | 39 | 32.3 | +6.7 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury Town | 23 | 22 | 28.1 | -6.1 | 27 | 25.6 | +1.4 | -5 | 2.5 | -7.5 | 33 | 31.8 | +1.2 |
| 15 | Walsall | 23 | 23 | 29.6 | -6.6 | 30 | 29.1 | +0.9 | -7 | 0.5 | -7.5 | 29 | 31.3 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Crawley Town | 23 | 26 | 31.5 | -5.5 | 28 | 32.3 | -4.3 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 25 | 31.2 | -6.2 |
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 23 | 22 | 29.1 | -7.1 | 37 | 30.3 | +6.7 | -15 | -1.3 | -13.7 | 18 | 30.2 | -12.2 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 23 | 31 | 30.3 | +0.7 | 28 | 33.8 | -5.8 | +3 | -3.6 | +6.6 | 37 | 30.2 | +6.8 |
| 19 | Crewe Alexandra | 23 | 34 | 29.9 | +4.1 | 28 | 32.3 | -4.3 | +6 | -2.4 | +8.4 | 41 | 30.0 | +11.0 |
| 20 | Accrington Stanley | 23 | 27 | 26.1 | +0.9 | 27 | 31.3 | -4.3 | +0 | -5.2 | +5.2 | 32 | 28.7 | +3.3 |
| 21 | Barrow | 23 | 18 | 24.5 | -6.5 | 34 | 29.9 | +4.1 | -16 | -5.4 | -10.6 | 19 | 28.3 | -9.3 |
| 22 | Newport County | 23 | 24 | 26.9 | -2.9 | 37 | 33.4 | +3.6 | -13 | -6.5 | -6.5 | 22 | 27.7 | -5.7 |
| 23 | Harrogate Town | 23 | 16 | 27.3 | -11.3 | 38 | 37.7 | +0.3 | -22 | -10.4 | -11.6 | 15 | 25.5 | -10.5 |
| 24 | Cheltenham Town | 23 | 28 | 23.8 | +4.2 | 33 | 35.3 | -2.3 | -5 | -11.5 | +6.5 | 31 | 24.8 | +6.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Keynes Dons | 23 | 45 | 36.1 | +8.9 | 25 | 24.3 | +0.7 | +20 | 11.9 | +8.1 | 41 | 38.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Cambridge United | 23 | 23 | 28.8 | -5.8 | 18 | 21.1 | -3.1 | +5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 31 | 36.6 | -5.6 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 23 | 33 | 34.2 | -1.2 | 28 | 29.3 | -1.3 | +5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 37 | 34.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Salford City | 23 | 27 | 33.6 | -6.6 | 27 | 29.5 | -2.5 | +0 | 4.1 | -4.1 | 35 | 34.3 | +0.7 |
| 5 | Notts County | 23 | 29 | 31.3 | -2.3 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 37 | 34.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Barnet | 23 | 32 | 34.4 | -2.4 | 24 | 31.6 | -7.6 | +8 | 2.8 | +5.2 | 40 | 34.0 | +6.0 |
| 7 | Walsall | 23 | 33 | 31.3 | +1.7 | 26 | 28.0 | -2.0 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 36 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 8 | Oldham Athletic | 23 | 30 | 33.2 | -3.2 | 26 | 33.4 | -7.4 | +4 | -0.2 | +4.2 | 30 | 32.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Bromley | 23 | 30 | 30.2 | -0.2 | 25 | 31.4 | -6.4 | +5 | -1.2 | +6.2 | 36 | 30.9 | +5.1 |
| 10 | Swindon Town | 23 | 32 | 31.5 | +0.5 | 32 | 34.9 | -2.9 | +0 | -3.4 | +3.4 | 36 | 30.8 | +5.2 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 23 | 23 | 29.8 | -6.8 | 24 | 32.1 | -8.1 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 28 | 30.6 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Colchester United | 23 | 27 | 26.7 | +0.3 | 26 | 32.4 | -6.4 | +1 | -5.7 | +6.7 | 30 | 28.6 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Crewe Alexandra | 23 | 30 | 29.9 | +0.1 | 30 | 34.9 | -4.9 | +0 | -5.0 | +5.0 | 26 | 28.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 23 | 25 | 27.7 | -2.7 | 37 | 33.7 | +3.3 | -12 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 25 | 27.8 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Chesterfield | 23 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1 | 32 | 36.4 | -4.4 | +1 | -8.5 | +9.5 | 38 | 27.7 | +10.3 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 23 | 24 | 27.9 | -3.9 | 36 | 37.6 | -1.6 | -12 | -9.7 | -2.3 | 22 | 26.5 | -4.5 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 23 | 18 | 29.2 | -11.2 | 40 | 38.8 | +1.2 | -22 | -9.6 | -12.4 | 15 | 26.4 | -11.4 |
| 18 | Cheltenham Town | 23 | 25 | 23.7 | +1.3 | 46 | 34.8 | +11.2 | -21 | -11.1 | -9.9 | 21 | 24.7 | -3.7 |
| 19 | Barrow | 23 | 27 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 44 | 40.4 | +3.6 | -17 | -12.0 | -5.0 | 17 | 24.3 | -7.3 |
| 20 | Accrington Stanley | 23 | 20 | 21.7 | -1.7 | 31 | 33.9 | -2.9 | -11 | -12.2 | +1.2 | 21 | 24.3 | -3.3 |
| 21 | Tranmere Rovers | 23 | 32 | 26.8 | +5.2 | 42 | 39.3 | +2.7 | -10 | -12.5 | +2.5 | 23 | 24.2 | -1.2 |
| 22 | Shrewsbury Town | 23 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | 42 | 31.3 | +10.7 | -22 | -12.6 | -9.4 | 16 | 22.2 | -6.2 |
| 23 | Newport County | 23 | 24 | 25.4 | -1.4 | 40 | 41.6 | -1.6 | -16 | -16.2 | +0.2 | 21 | 21.7 | -0.7 |
| 24 | Harrogate Town | 23 | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 | 30 | 41.0 | -11.0 | -7 | -20.9 | +13.9 | 24 | 19.4 | +4.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cambridge United | 5 | 8 | 11.4 | -3.4 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Barnet | 5 | 18 | 11.2 | +6.8 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +10 | 4.6 | +5.4 | 15 | 9.2 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Salford City | 5 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | +2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Bromley | 5 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +6 | 1.9 | +4.1 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +7 | 1.5 | +5.5 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | -2 | 1.7 | -3.7 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | Notts County | 5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | -2 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Colchester United | 5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | +5 | 1.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Newport County | 5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | Harrogate Town | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Crawley Town | 5 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -0.2 | -3.8 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | -2 | 0.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | +8 | 0.2 | +7.8 | 13 | 6.8 | +6.2 |
| 15 | Walsall | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | -7 | -0.6 | -6.4 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Oldham Athletic | 5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Chesterfield | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 9.2 | -5.2 | +4 | -2.2 | +6.2 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 |
| 19 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | -7 | -1.3 | -5.7 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | -5 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 22 | Swindon Town | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 23 | Barrow | 5 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | -6 | -4.2 | -1.8 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 24 | Gillingham | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | -7 | -5.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
Milton Keynes Dons overperformed their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2025/2026, with 86 goals from chances worth 70.9 xG, a gap of 15.1. Notts County were next on 6.9.
Crawley Town underperformed their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2025/2026, with 44 goals from chances worth 60.7 xG, a shortfall of 16.7. Salford City were next on 12.9.
Bromley were the luckiest side in League Two in 2025/2026, with 87 points from performances worth 69.2 xPts, 17.8 more than their chances deserved. Swindon Town were next on 11.9.
Crawley Town were the unluckiest side in League Two in 2025/2026, with 40 points from performances worth 57.6 xPts, 17.6 short of what they deserved. Barrow were next on 16.6.
Cambridge United would be top of League Two in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 81.6 xPts from 68.4 xG created and 40.4 conceded across 46 matches. Grimsby Town were next on 80.9.
Grimsby Town created the most xG in League Two in 2025/2026, 77.8 from 46 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Barnet were next on 76.6.
Shrewsbury Town created the least xG in League Two in 2025/2026, 46.8 from 46 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Cheltenham Town and Harrogate Town were next on 47.4.
Harrogate Town conceded the most xG in League Two in 2025/2026, 78.7 from 46 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Newport County were next on 75.0.
Cambridge United conceded the least xG in League Two in 2025/2026, 40.4 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Grimsby Town and Milton Keynes Dons were next on 49.6.
League Two teams averaged 1.35 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 552 matches played, and scored 1.29 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.24 xG a game in 2024/2025.
League Two teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.45 a game against 1.25 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.26 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cambridge United | 46 | 66 | 68.4 | -2.4 | 33 | 40.4 | -7.4 | +33 | 28.0 | +5.0 | 82 | 81.6 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 74 | 77.8 | -3.8 | 50 | 49.6 | +0.4 | +24 | 28.2 | -4.2 | 78 | 80.9 | -2.9 |
| 3 | Barnet | 46 | 70 | 76.6 | -6.6 | 53 | 55.3 | -2.3 | +17 | 21.2 | -4.2 | 76 | 76.9 | -0.9 |
| 4 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 70.9 | +15.1 | 45 | 49.6 | -4.6 | +41 | 21.3 | +19.7 | 86 | 76.7 | +9.3 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 74 | 67.1 | +6.9 | 52 | 50.0 | +2.0 | +22 | 17.1 | +4.9 | 80 | 74.3 | +5.7 |
| 6 | Salford City | 46 | 61 | 73.9 | -12.9 | 51 | 58.6 | -7.6 | +10 | 15.2 | -5.2 | 81 | 72.1 | +8.9 |
| 7 | Bromley | 46 | 71 | 71.0 | +0.0 | 46 | 60.8 | -14.8 | +25 | 10.3 | +14.7 | 87 | 69.2 | +17.8 |
| 8 | Colchester United | 46 | 62 | 64.7 | -2.7 | 49 | 54.9 | -5.9 | +13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | 66 | 68.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Chesterfield | 46 | 71 | 66.1 | +4.9 | 56 | 61.0 | -5.0 | +15 | 5.1 | +9.9 | 79 | 68.2 | +10.8 |
| 10 | Oldham Athletic | 46 | 60 | 68.3 | -8.3 | 44 | 62.6 | -18.6 | +16 | 5.7 | +10.3 | 68 | 67.5 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 57 | 66.6 | -9.6 | 58 | 62.3 | -4.3 | -1 | 4.4 | -5.4 | 61 | 65.9 | -4.9 |
| 12 | Walsall | 46 | 56 | 60.9 | -4.9 | 56 | 57.1 | -1.1 | +0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | 65 | 64.3 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 46 | 70 | 63.5 | +6.5 | 59 | 65.3 | -6.3 | +11 | -1.7 | +12.7 | 75 | 63.1 | +11.9 |
| 14 | Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 62.4 | -9.4 | 72 | 68.3 | +3.7 | -19 | -5.9 | -13.1 | 53 | 60.2 | -7.2 |
| 15 | Crewe Alexandra | 46 | 64 | 59.8 | +4.2 | 58 | 67.2 | -9.2 | +6 | -7.3 | +13.3 | 67 | 58.5 | +8.5 |
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 56 | 58.0 | -2.0 | 65 | 67.6 | -2.6 | -9 | -9.6 | +0.6 | 62 | 58.0 | +4.0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 46 | 44 | 60.7 | -16.7 | 68 | 71.1 | -3.1 | -24 | -10.4 | -13.6 | 40 | 57.6 | -17.6 |
| 18 | Tranmere Rovers | 46 | 54 | 55.9 | -1.9 | 79 | 69.6 | +9.4 | -25 | -13.8 | -11.2 | 41 | 54.4 | -13.4 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury Town | 46 | 42 | 46.8 | -4.8 | 69 | 56.9 | +12.1 | -27 | -10.0 | -17.0 | 49 | 54.0 | -5.0 |
| 20 | Accrington Stanley | 46 | 47 | 47.8 | -0.8 | 58 | 65.2 | -7.2 | -11 | -17.4 | +6.4 | 53 | 53.0 | +0.0 |
| 21 | Barrow | 46 | 45 | 53.0 | -8.0 | 78 | 70.3 | +7.7 | -33 | -17.3 | -15.7 | 36 | 52.6 | -16.6 |
| 22 | Cheltenham Town | 46 | 53 | 47.4 | +5.6 | 79 | 70.1 | +8.9 | -26 | -22.7 | -3.3 | 52 | 49.5 | +2.5 |
| 23 | Newport County | 46 | 48 | 52.3 | -4.3 | 77 | 75.0 | +2.0 | -29 | -22.7 | -6.3 | 43 | 49.4 | -6.4 |
| 24 | Harrogate Town | 46 | 39 | 47.4 | -8.4 | 68 | 78.7 | -10.7 | -29 | -31.3 | +2.3 | 39 | 44.9 | -5.9 |