Carlisle United have the biggest shortfall in the League Two: 42 points from chances worth 59.7 xPts, a gap of 17.7. At the other end, Grimsby Town have taken 68 points from an xPts figure of 56.7, 11.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 35 | 33.3 | +1.7 | 16 | 15.7 | +0.3 | +19 | 17.6 | +1.4 | 44 | 43.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Notts County | 23 | 31 | 41.1 | -10.1 | 21 | 24.0 | -3.0 | +10 | 17.1 | -7.1 | 35 | 42.1 | -7.1 |
| 3 | Walsall | 23 | 46 | 41.3 | +4.7 | 32 | 23.1 | +8.9 | +14 | 18.2 | -4.2 | 42 | 41.6 | +0.4 |
| 4 | Bradford City | 23 | 39 | 38.6 | +0.4 | 13 | 20.3 | -7.3 | +26 | 18.2 | +7.8 | 55 | 41.4 | +13.6 |
| 5 | Chesterfield | 23 | 41 | 38.2 | +2.8 | 27 | 22.1 | +4.9 | +14 | 16.1 | -2.1 | 40 | 41.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Swindon Town | 23 | 39 | 38.2 | +0.8 | 33 | 22.4 | +10.6 | +6 | 15.8 | -9.8 | 35 | 40.9 | -5.9 |
| 7 | Doncaster Rovers | 22 | 35 | 33.6 | +1.4 | 22 | 17.5 | +4.5 | +13 | 16.2 | -3.2 | 40 | 40.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Port Vale | 23 | 34 | 30.8 | +3.2 | 18 | 23.1 | -5.1 | +16 | 7.8 | +8.2 | 43 | 36.5 | +6.5 |
| 9 | Barrow | 22 | 32 | 29.7 | +2.3 | 22 | 20.5 | +1.5 | +10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 34 | 36.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 | Colchester United | 23 | 28 | 28.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 22.0 | -7.0 | +13 | 6.6 | +6.4 | 38 | 36.3 | +1.7 |
| 11 | Tranmere Rovers | 23 | 24 | 31.6 | -7.6 | 22 | 25.6 | -3.6 | +2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 33 | 36.3 | -3.3 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 23 | 24 | 31.9 | -7.9 | 21 | 26.3 | -5.3 | +3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 33 | 35.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Salford City | 23 | 32 | 31.7 | +0.3 | 28 | 27.7 | +0.3 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 35 | 34.4 | +0.6 |
| 14 | Bromley | 23 | 35 | 33.1 | +1.9 | 26 | 27.8 | -1.8 | +9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 34 | 34.0 | +0.0 |
| 15 | Gillingham | 22 | 22 | 26.4 | -4.4 | 18 | 21.5 | -3.5 | +4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 34 | 33.1 | +0.9 |
| 16 | Carlisle United | 23 | 25 | 33.4 | -8.4 | 35 | 31.7 | +3.3 | -10 | 1.7 | -11.7 | 23 | 33.1 | -10.1 |
| 17 | Crewe Alexandra | 22 | 30 | 30.1 | -0.1 | 27 | 25.7 | +1.3 | +3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 32 | 32.6 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Grimsby Town | 23 | 30 | 29.0 | +1.0 | 35 | 29.6 | +5.4 | -5 | -0.6 | -4.4 | 33 | 31.6 | +1.4 |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 23 | 29 | 24.4 | +4.6 | 31 | 22.7 | +8.3 | -2 | 1.7 | -3.7 | 26 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 23 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 | 31 | 29.2 | +1.8 | +1 | -1.6 | +2.6 | 36 | 29.7 | +6.3 |
| 21 | Milton Keynes Dons | 21 | 24 | 25.0 | -1.0 | 23 | 25.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 29 | 28.6 | +0.4 |
| 22 | Harrogate Town | 23 | 26 | 22.6 | +3.4 | 31 | 31.2 | -0.2 | -5 | -8.6 | +3.6 | 34 | 25.8 | +8.2 |
| 23 | Newport County | 23 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 | 32 | 36.7 | -4.7 | +0 | -9.2 | +9.2 | 35 | 25.6 | +9.4 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 23 | 24 | 22.7 | +1.3 | 36 | 36.8 | -0.8 | -12 | -14.2 | +2.2 | 22 | 24.4 | -2.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walsall | 23 | 29 | 35.6 | -6.6 | 22 | 22.0 | +0.0 | +7 | 13.6 | -6.6 | 35 | 40.5 | -5.5 |
| 2 | Doncaster Rovers | 23 | 35 | 37.4 | -2.4 | 27 | 28.0 | -1.0 | +8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | 41 | 37.3 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Notts County | 23 | 37 | 35.4 | +1.6 | 28 | 31.3 | -3.3 | +9 | 4.0 | +5.0 | 37 | 34.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Bradford City | 23 | 25 | 29.0 | -4.0 | 32 | 28.1 | +3.9 | -7 | 0.9 | -7.9 | 23 | 32.1 | -9.1 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 21 | 26.5 | -5.5 | 19 | 27.3 | -8.3 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.8 | 29 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 22 | 30 | 29.4 | +0.6 | 28 | 25.8 | +2.2 | +2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 34 | 31.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 23 | 32 | 26.3 | +5.7 | 27 | 26.2 | +0.8 | +5 | 0.1 | +4.9 | 30 | 30.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Barrow | 23 | 18 | 25.5 | -7.5 | 28 | 23.7 | +4.3 | -10 | 1.8 | -11.8 | 22 | 30.8 | -8.8 |
| 9 | Crewe Alexandra | 23 | 19 | 22.9 | -3.9 | 21 | 28.5 | -7.5 | -2 | -5.6 | +3.6 | 29 | 28.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Fleetwood Town | 22 | 36 | 28.1 | +7.9 | 37 | 32.3 | +4.7 | -1 | -4.3 | +3.3 | 27 | 28.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Salford City | 23 | 32 | 26.6 | +5.4 | 26 | 31.2 | -5.2 | +6 | -4.6 | +10.6 | 34 | 28.2 | +5.8 |
| 12 | Swindon Town | 23 | 32 | 26.4 | +5.6 | 30 | 29.9 | +0.1 | +2 | -3.5 | +5.5 | 27 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Bromley | 23 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 | 33 | 36.8 | -3.8 | -4 | -9.3 | +5.3 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 |
| 14 | Carlisle United | 23 | 19 | 25.5 | -6.5 | 36 | 35.3 | +0.7 | -17 | -9.8 | -7.2 | 19 | 26.6 | -7.6 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 23 | 24 | 21.1 | +2.9 | 38 | 28.6 | +9.4 | -14 | -7.5 | -6.5 | 24 | 26.4 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Colchester United | 22 | 24 | 23.8 | +0.2 | 32 | 33.5 | -1.5 | -8 | -9.7 | +1.7 | 28 | 25.3 | +2.7 |
| 17 | Grimsby Town | 23 | 31 | 23.7 | +7.3 | 32 | 34.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -10.4 | +9.4 | 35 | 25.1 | +9.9 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 23 | 27 | 21.0 | +6.0 | 41 | 31.9 | +9.1 | -14 | -10.9 | -3.1 | 22 | 24.4 | -2.4 |
| 19 | Harrogate Town | 23 | 17 | 23.5 | -6.5 | 30 | 37.3 | -7.3 | -13 | -13.8 | +0.8 | 19 | 23.3 | -4.3 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 23 | 17 | 20.1 | -3.1 | 26 | 33.3 | -7.3 | -9 | -13.1 | +4.1 | 23 | 22.2 | +0.8 |
| 21 | Tranmere Rovers | 21 | 19 | 17.7 | +1.3 | 39 | 29.6 | +9.4 | -20 | -11.9 | -8.1 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 23 | 16 | 20.2 | -4.2 | 36 | 38.6 | -2.6 | -20 | -18.5 | -1.5 | 14 | 19.5 | -5.5 |
| 23 | Cheltenham Town | 22 | 26 | 16.2 | +9.8 | 37 | 33.2 | +3.8 | -11 | -17.0 | +6.0 | 23 | 19.1 | +3.9 |
| 24 | Newport County | 23 | 20 | 19.7 | +0.3 | 44 | 43.6 | +0.4 | -24 | -23.9 | -0.1 | 14 | 17.7 | -3.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Vale | 5 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | +5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 10.1 | -3.1 |
| 2 | Swindon Town | 5 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | +4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| 3 | Doncaster Rovers | 5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Salford City | 5 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Bradford City | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 11 | 6.0 | +5.0 | -1 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 5 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +7 | 2.8 | +4.2 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 |
| 7 | Barrow | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Harrogate Town | 5 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Notts County | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 11 | Walsall | 5 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 11 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 14 | Bromley | 5 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 15 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 |
| 16 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 17 | Colchester United | 5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Carlisle United | 5 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 19 | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 20 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Newport County | 5 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 22 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -5 | -4.7 | -0.3 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 23 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 5 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | -9 | -8.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 |
Cheltenham Town overperformed their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2024/2025, with 58 goals from chances worth 43.7 xG, a gap of 14.3. Chesterfield were next on 8.5.
Carlisle United underperformed their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2024/2025, with 44 goals from chances worth 58.9 xG, a shortfall of 14.9. Notts County were next on 8.4.
Grimsby Town were the luckiest side in League Two in 2024/2025, with 68 points from performances worth 56.7 xPts, 11.3 more than their chances deserved. Cheltenham Town were next on 10.2.
Carlisle United were the unluckiest side in League Two in 2024/2025, with 42 points from performances worth 59.7 xPts, 17.7 short of what they deserved. Barrow were next on 11.1.
Walsall would be top of League Two in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 82.1 xPts from 76.9 xG created and 45.1 conceded across 46 matches. Doncaster Rovers were next on 77.7.
Walsall created the most xG in League Two in 2024/2025, 76.9 from 46 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Notts County were next on 76.4.
Morecambe created the least xG in League Two in 2024/2025, 42.8 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Cheltenham Town were next on 43.7.
Newport County conceded the most xG in League Two in 2024/2025, 80.3 from 46 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Morecambe were next on 75.5.
AFC Wimbledon conceded the least xG in League Two in 2024/2025, 43.0 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Barrow were next on 44.2.
League Two teams averaged 1.24 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 546 matches played, and scored 1.25 goals a game from it.
League Two teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.37 a game against 1.12 away, a home advantage of +0.26.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walsall | 46 | 75 | 76.9 | -1.9 | 54 | 45.1 | +8.9 | +21 | 31.8 | -10.8 | 77 | 82.1 | -5.1 |
| 2 | Doncaster Rovers | 45 | 70 | 71.0 | -1.0 | 49 | 45.4 | +3.6 | +21 | 25.6 | -4.6 | 81 | 77.7 | +3.3 |
| 3 | Notts County | 46 | 68 | 76.4 | -8.4 | 49 | 55.3 | -6.3 | +19 | 21.1 | -2.1 | 72 | 76.6 | -4.6 |
| 4 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 56 | 59.8 | -3.8 | 35 | 43.0 | -8.0 | +21 | 16.8 | +4.2 | 73 | 75.8 | -2.8 |
| 5 | Bradford City | 46 | 64 | 67.6 | -3.6 | 45 | 48.5 | -3.5 | +19 | 19.2 | -0.2 | 78 | 73.6 | +4.4 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 73 | 64.5 | +8.5 | 54 | 48.3 | +5.7 | +19 | 16.2 | +2.8 | 70 | 71.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 46 | 71 | 64.5 | +6.5 | 63 | 52.2 | +10.8 | +8 | 12.3 | -4.3 | 62 | 68.9 | -6.9 |
| 8 | Port Vale | 45 | 64 | 60.3 | +3.7 | 46 | 48.8 | -2.8 | +18 | 11.4 | +6.6 | 77 | 68.2 | +8.8 |
| 9 | Barrow | 45 | 50 | 55.2 | -5.2 | 50 | 44.2 | +5.8 | +0 | 11.0 | -11.0 | 56 | 67.1 | -11.1 |
| 10 | Fleetwood Town | 45 | 60 | 59.9 | +0.1 | 58 | 58.7 | -0.7 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 60 | 63.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Salford City | 46 | 64 | 58.2 | +5.8 | 54 | 58.9 | -4.9 | +10 | -0.7 | +10.7 | 69 | 62.6 | +6.4 |
| 12 | Colchester United | 45 | 52 | 52.3 | -0.3 | 47 | 55.4 | -8.4 | +5 | -3.2 | +8.2 | 66 | 61.6 | +4.4 |
| 13 | Bromley | 46 | 64 | 60.6 | +3.4 | 59 | 64.6 | -5.6 | +5 | -4.0 | +9.0 | 66 | 61.5 | +4.5 |
| 14 | Crewe Alexandra | 45 | 49 | 53.1 | -4.1 | 48 | 54.2 | -6.2 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 61 | 60.9 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Carlisle United | 46 | 44 | 58.9 | -14.9 | 71 | 67.0 | +4.0 | -27 | -8.1 | -18.9 | 42 | 59.7 | -17.7 |
| 16 | Tranmere Rovers | 44 | 43 | 49.2 | -6.2 | 61 | 55.2 | +5.8 | -18 | -6.0 | -12.0 | 50 | 58.0 | -8.0 |
| 17 | Accrington Stanley | 46 | 53 | 45.5 | +7.5 | 69 | 51.3 | +17.7 | -16 | -5.9 | -10.1 | 50 | 57.5 | -7.5 |
| 18 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 61 | 52.7 | +8.3 | 67 | 63.7 | +3.3 | -6 | -11.0 | +5.0 | 68 | 56.7 | +11.3 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 45 | 39 | 46.5 | -7.5 | 44 | 54.8 | -10.8 | -5 | -8.2 | +3.2 | 57 | 55.3 | +1.7 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 44 | 51 | 46.0 | +5.0 | 64 | 57.7 | +6.3 | -13 | -11.7 | -1.3 | 51 | 53.0 | -2.0 |
| 21 | Harrogate Town | 46 | 43 | 46.1 | -3.1 | 61 | 68.5 | -7.5 | -18 | -22.4 | +4.4 | 53 | 49.1 | +3.9 |
| 22 | Cheltenham Town | 45 | 58 | 43.7 | +14.3 | 68 | 62.4 | +5.6 | -10 | -18.7 | +8.7 | 59 | 48.8 | +10.2 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 46 | 40 | 42.8 | -2.8 | 72 | 75.5 | -3.5 | -32 | -32.7 | +0.7 | 36 | 43.8 | -7.8 |
| 24 | Newport County | 46 | 52 | 47.2 | +4.8 | 76 | 80.3 | -4.3 | -24 | -33.1 | +9.1 | 49 | 43.3 | +5.7 |