Oldham Athletic have the biggest shortfall in the League Two: 7 points from chances worth 11.9 xPts, a gap of 4.9. At the other end, Cheltenham Town have taken 15 points from an xPts figure of 9.9, 5.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 5 | 10 | 12.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 |
| 3 | Exeter City | 5 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | +3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 4 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | +6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 6 | York City | 4 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +9 | 4.3 | +4.7 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 7 | Salford City | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 8 | Barnet | 4 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 9 | Walsall | 4 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Newport County | 4 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | +4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Colchester United | 4 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Oldham Athletic | 4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | +3 | -1.1 | +4.1 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 15 | Rotherham United | 4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 16 | Swindon Town | 4 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +5 | 0.6 | +4.4 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 4 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | +1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 20 | Tranmere Rovers | 4 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | +4 | 0.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 5 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 23 | Cheltenham Town | 4 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | +3 | -3.9 | +6.9 | 10 | 3.3 | +6.7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 3 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | -5 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rotherham United | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | 4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 4 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -1 | 1.7 | -2.7 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 5 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | York City | 4 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 |
| 7 | Crawley Town | 4 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | -6 | -0.7 | -5.3 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Crewe Alexandra | 4 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 10 | Oldham Athletic | 4 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -0.1 | -4.9 | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 |
| 11 | Walsall | 4 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Newport County | 5 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 13 | Salford City | 4 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Port Vale | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 4.2 | -4.2 |
| 16 | Barnet | 3 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | +0 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Colchester United | 4 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 20 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 11.8 | -4.8 | -2 | -5.7 | +3.7 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 3 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| 23 | Exeter City | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 |
| 24 | Swindon Town | 5 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | -9 | -7.7 | -1.3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 5 | 12 | 12.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | +4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 |
| 3 | York City | 5 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Barnet | 5 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | +3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 5 | Newport County | 5 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
| 6 | Walsall | 5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 7 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Salford City | 5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | +6 | 0.9 | +5.1 | 13 | 7.5 | +5.5 |
| 9 | Oldham Athletic | 5 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | -8 | 0.1 | -8.1 | 1 | 7.0 | -6.0 |
| 10 | Port Vale | 5 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -4 | 0.3 | -4.3 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 11 | Rotherham United | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | Gillingham | 5 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | +5 | -0.9 | +5.9 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -1.8 | +2.8 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | -5 | -1.3 | -3.7 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | -2 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Colchester United | 5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -2.3 | +3.3 | 10 | 5.5 | +4.5 |
| 20 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -2.1 | +4.1 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 5 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 1 | 5.3 | -4.3 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 5 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -2 | -2.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 23 | Swindon Town | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | -4 | -3.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 24 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | -2 | -3.7 | +1.7 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
Cheltenham Town are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 11.2 xG, a gap of 4.8. Barnet are next on 4.0.
Exeter City are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 10.7 xG, a shortfall of 5.7. Chesterfield are next on 5.1.
Cheltenham Town are the luckiest side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 15 points from performances worth 9.9 xPts, 5.1 more than their chances deserved. Rochdale are next on 4.1.
Oldham Athletic are the unluckiest side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 11.9 xPts, 4.9 short of what they deserved. Port Vale are next on 4.8.
Chesterfield would be top of League Two in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 18.2 xPts from 20.1 xG created and 10.4 conceded across nine matches. Grimsby Town are next on 17.0.
Chesterfield have created the most xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 20.1 from nine matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Grimsby Town are next on 17.6.
Northampton Town have created the least xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 5.2 from seven matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Port Vale are next on 7.6.
Swindon Town have conceded the most xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 16.2 from nine matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Cheltenham Town and Fleetwood Town are next on 15.9.
Northampton Town have conceded the least xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 6.9 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Port Vale are next on 7.0.
League Two teams have averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 102 matches played, and have scored 1.26 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.35 xG a game in 2025/2026.
League Two teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.59 a game against 1.24 away, a home advantage of +0.35, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 9 | 15 | 20.1 | -5.1 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 | +3 | 9.7 | -6.7 | 14 | 18.2 | -4.2 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 9 | 13 | 17.6 | -4.6 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | +3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | 13 | 17.0 | -4.0 |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 14 | 15.8 | -1.8 | 14 | 10.8 | +3.2 | +0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 15 | 14.7 | +0.3 |
| 4 | York City | 8 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | +6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 14 | 14.2 | -0.2 |
| 5 | Rotherham United | 9 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 2.9 | -3.9 | 10 | 13.9 | -3.9 |
| 6 | Salford City | 9 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 16 | 12.9 | +3.1 |
| 7 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 14 | 14.6 | -0.6 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 |
| 8 | Walsall | 8 | 11 | 14.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 12.1 | -7.1 | +6 | 2.1 | +3.9 | 14 | 12.5 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Exeter City | 9 | 5 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 6 | 10.6 | -4.6 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 12.5 | -3.5 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury Town | 9 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 | -5 | -0.1 | -4.9 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 9 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Oldham Athletic | 8 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 | -4 | 1.5 | -5.5 | 7 | 11.9 | -4.9 |
| 13 | Barnet | 7 | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | +7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
| 14 | Crewe Alexandra | 9 | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 12.0 | -5.0 | +4 | -0.6 | +4.6 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
| 15 | Gillingham | 9 | 11 | 10.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 13.6 | -4.6 | +2 | -3.2 | +5.2 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 |
| 16 | Colchester United | 8 | 10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 |
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 9 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 15.4 | -3.4 | +0 | -4.2 | +4.2 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 18 | Cheltenham Town | 9 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 | 14 | 15.9 | -1.9 | +2 | -4.7 | +6.7 | 15 | 9.9 | +5.1 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | -6 | 0.6 | -6.6 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 |
| 20 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 15.9 | -5.9 | -1 | -5.4 | +4.4 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 9 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | -1 | -5.2 | +4.2 | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 7 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 |
| 23 | Swindon Town | 9 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 13 | 16.2 | -3.2 | -4 | -7.1 | +3.1 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 6 | 10.8 | -4.8 | 13 | 14.7 | -1.7 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |