ADO Den Haag have the biggest shortfall in the Eredivisie: 2 points from chances worth 6.5 xPts, a gap of 4.5. At the other end, Fortuna Sittard have taken 13 points from an xPts figure of 5.2, 7.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente | 4 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 |
| 2 | AZ | 4 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Ajax | 4 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | +2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 5 | PSV | 3 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | +7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 4 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 10 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 3.5 | +4.5 | -4 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 11 | SC Cambuur | 4 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 13 | 7.8 | +5.2 | -7 | -1.8 | -5.2 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 12 | Willem II | 4 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | -1 | -1.1 | +0.1 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Telstar | 3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | -6 | -1.2 | -4.8 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 16 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 | -8 | -3.7 | -4.3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 | -11 | -4.9 | -6.1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | -4 | -7.7 | +3.7 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 4 | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Ajax | 3 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 3 | PSV | 4 | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | AZ | 3 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 3 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 6 | Excelsior | 4 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | +7 | -0.1 | +7.1 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.8 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 9 | 3.8 | +5.2 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +3 | -3.1 | +6.1 | 10 | 3.7 | +6.3 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | SC Cambuur | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -2.2 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | FC Groningen | 3 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -1 | -3.9 | +2.9 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -6 | -6.6 | +0.6 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Willem II | 3 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -7 | -4.2 | -2.8 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 18 | Telstar | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 10.0 | -7.0 | -1 | -6.8 | +5.8 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente | 5 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | +7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 5 | 22 | 13.3 | +8.7 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | +17 | 9.3 | +7.7 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 5 | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | +10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 |
| 4 | AZ | 5 | 12 | 13.7 | -1.7 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 |
| 5 | PSV | 5 | 20 | 13.9 | +6.1 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | +13 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +3 | -1.5 | +4.5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 9 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 18 | 10.5 | +7.5 | -9 | -3.3 | -5.7 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | -2 | -3.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | SC Cambuur | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | 15 | 10.9 | +4.1 | -8 | -2.8 | -5.2 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| 13 | ADO Den Haag | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | -5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| 14 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 15 | Willem II | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | -8 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | -10 | -5.4 | -4.6 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Telstar | 5 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | -6 | -5.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -8.8 | +5.8 | 9 | 3.5 | +5.5 |
Fortuna Sittard are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 6.6 xG, a gap of 6.4. PSV are next on 5.4.
Willem II are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 6 goals from chances worth 9.6 xG, a shortfall of 3.6. Telstar are next on 2.8.
Fortuna Sittard are the luckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 13 points from performances worth 5.2 xPts, 7.8 more than their chances deserved. AZ are next on 3.1.
Willem II and ADO Den Haag are the unluckiest sides in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, both 4.5 short of their expected points, each taking 2 points from performances worth 6.5 xPts. Sparta Rotterdam and FC Utrecht are next on 2.6.
FC Twente would be top of the Eredivisie in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.6 xPts from 17.6 xG created and 5.4 conceded across seven matches. Feyenoord are next on 16.5.
Feyenoord have created the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 19.8 from seven matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Ajax are next on 19.2.
ADO Den Haag have created the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 6.5 from seven matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Fortuna Sittard are next on 6.6.
Fortuna Sittard have conceded the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 17.4 from seven matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.7. PEC Zwolle are next on 16.3.
FC Twente have conceded the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 5.4 from seven matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Feyenoord are next on 6.4.
Eredivisie teams have averaged 1.73 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 63 matches played, and have scored 1.90 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.58 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Eredivisie teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.82 a game against 1.64 away, a home advantage of +0.18, against +0.39 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente | 7 | 15 | 17.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +8 | 12.2 | -4.2 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 19.8 | +5.2 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +18 | 13.4 | +4.6 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | AZ | 7 | 18 | 19.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | +12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 |
| 4 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 19.2 | +1.8 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | +12 | 11.4 | +0.6 | 14 | 15.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | PSV | 7 | 24 | 18.6 | +5.4 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | +14 | 9.8 | +4.2 | 16 | 14.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | +2 | 0.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 10.0 | +5.0 | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | +6 | -1.1 | +7.1 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 11.0 | -2.0 | +2 | -0.9 | +2.9 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 7 | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | 17 | 16.0 | +1.0 | -7 | -4.4 | -2.6 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 12 | FC Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | 24 | 14.7 | +9.3 | -13 | -4.9 | -8.1 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 13 | SC Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 | -9 | -3.9 | -5.1 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 14 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 9.6 | -3.6 | 20 | 15.8 | +4.2 | -14 | -6.2 | -7.8 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | -10 | -6.3 | -3.7 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 12 | 15.8 | -3.8 | -7 | -7.9 | +0.9 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 20 | 16.3 | +3.7 | -14 | -9.1 | -4.9 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 6.6 | +6.4 | 14 | 17.4 | -3.4 | -1 | -10.8 | +9.8 | 13 | 5.2 | +7.8 |