NAC Breda have the biggest shortfall in the Eredivisie: 29 points from chances worth 44.4 xPts, a gap of 15.4. At the other end, PSV have taken 84 points from an xPts figure of 67.9, 16.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 17 | 58 | 41.9 | +16.1 | 26 | 20.0 | +6.0 | +32 | 21.9 | +10.1 | 41 | 35.9 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 39 | 37.4 | +1.6 | 23 | 19.1 | +3.9 | +16 | 18.4 | -2.4 | 36 | 33.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 29 | 36.6 | -7.6 | 16 | 16.3 | -0.3 | +13 | 20.3 | -7.3 | 32 | 33.5 | -1.5 |
| 4 | SC Heerenveen | 17 | 33 | 35.3 | -2.3 | 24 | 19.3 | +4.7 | +9 | 16.0 | -7.0 | 30 | 32.6 | -2.6 |
| 5 | FC Utrecht | 17 | 31 | 30.6 | +0.4 | 13 | 17.5 | -4.5 | +18 | 13.1 | +4.9 | 33 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 | AZ | 17 | 39 | 34.1 | +4.9 | 26 | 20.5 | +5.5 | +13 | 13.6 | -0.6 | 31 | 30.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | NEC Nijmegen | 17 | 41 | 37.6 | +3.4 | 25 | 23.0 | +2.0 | +16 | 14.5 | +1.5 | 32 | 30.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Ajax | 17 | 32 | 31.5 | +0.5 | 17 | 20.9 | -3.9 | +15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 31 | 29.2 | +1.8 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 17 | 27 | 30.6 | -3.6 | 18 | 23.2 | -5.2 | +9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 25 | 27.9 | -2.9 |
| 10 | NAC Breda | 17 | 20 | 25.2 | -5.2 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 | -3 | 5.0 | -8.0 | 20 | 26.6 | -6.6 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 17 | 28 | 29.4 | -1.4 | 29 | 26.7 | +2.3 | -1 | 2.8 | -3.8 | 25 | 25.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Telstar | 17 | 31 | 27.4 | +3.6 | 28 | 27.7 | +0.3 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 20 | 23.7 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 34 | 28.1 | +5.9 | 24 | 28.6 | -4.6 | +10 | -0.5 | +10.5 | 25 | 23.5 | +1.5 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 17 | 21 | 25.1 | -4.1 | 27 | 27.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 23 | 23.2 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 17 | 20 | 23.7 | -3.7 | 22 | 26.8 | -4.8 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 17 | 24 | 25.7 | -1.7 | 23 | 29.1 | -6.1 | +1 | -3.4 | +4.4 | 23 | 21.6 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Heracles Almelo | 17 | 23 | 25.3 | -2.3 | 36 | 29.9 | +6.1 | -13 | -4.6 | -8.4 | 15 | 20.6 | -5.6 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 21 | 19.4 | +1.6 | 21 | 27.8 | -6.8 | +0 | -8.4 | +8.4 | 28 | 18.1 | +9.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 17 | 43 | 34.2 | +8.8 | 19 | 19.4 | -0.4 | +24 | 14.8 | +9.2 | 43 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 17 | 30 | 34.1 | -4.1 | 24 | 23.8 | +0.2 | +6 | 10.3 | -4.3 | 26 | 29.6 | -3.6 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 17 | 31 | 29.6 | +1.4 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 | +10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 29 | 28.9 | +0.1 |
| 4 | AZ | 17 | 19 | 29.5 | -10.5 | 25 | 25.6 | -0.6 | -6 | 3.9 | -9.9 | 21 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 5 | FC Groningen | 17 | 22 | 28.7 | -6.7 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | -5 | 3.2 | -8.2 | 23 | 25.3 | -2.3 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 17 | 36 | 26.5 | +9.5 | 28 | 25.4 | +2.6 | +8 | 1.1 | +6.9 | 27 | 24.1 | +2.9 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 17 | 24 | 26.4 | -2.4 | 29 | 32.2 | -3.2 | -5 | -5.7 | +0.7 | 21 | 21.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Ajax | 17 | 30 | 23.7 | +6.3 | 24 | 27.3 | -3.3 | +6 | -3.6 | +9.6 | 25 | 21.5 | +3.5 |
| 9 | FC Utrecht | 17 | 24 | 22.9 | +1.1 | 29 | 27.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -4.9 | -0.1 | 20 | 21.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 17 | 23 | 25.0 | -2.0 | 34 | 31.7 | +2.3 | -11 | -6.7 | -4.3 | 20 | 19.2 | +0.8 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 17 | 15 | 19.4 | -4.4 | 35 | 30.3 | +4.7 | -20 | -10.8 | -9.2 | 9 | 17.8 | -8.8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 17 | 19 | 20.7 | -1.7 | 35 | 32.2 | +2.8 | -16 | -11.5 | -4.5 | 20 | 17.5 | +2.5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 17 | 18 | 21.1 | -3.1 | 27 | 36.7 | -9.7 | -9 | -15.7 | +6.7 | 17 | 15.3 | +1.7 |
| 14 | Fortuna Sittard | 17 | 21 | 18.3 | +2.7 | 34 | 33.1 | +0.9 | -13 | -14.8 | +1.8 | 14 | 14.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Heracles Almelo | 17 | 12 | 17.8 | -5.8 | 49 | 37.5 | +11.5 | -37 | -19.6 | -17.4 | 4 | 12.9 | -8.9 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 23 | 17.3 | +5.7 | 50 | 38.1 | +11.9 | -27 | -20.8 | -6.2 | 9 | 12.7 | -3.7 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 17 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | 32 | 34.3 | -2.3 | -21 | -22.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 |
| 18 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 20 | 16.6 | +3.4 | 29 | 44.6 | -15.6 | -9 | -28.0 | +19.0 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 5 | 19 | 11.0 | +8.0 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +14 | 5.4 | +8.6 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 5 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Excelsior | 5 | 14 | 9.6 | +4.4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 4 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | +3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 |
| 5 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 6 | 12.1 | -6.1 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | +0 | 5.4 | -5.4 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 5 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | +1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 7 | AZ | 5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 5 | 4 | 8.8 | -4.8 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Telstar | 5 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 0.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Ajax | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | +4 | -1.3 | +5.3 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| 13 | FC Volendam | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 14 | Heracles Almelo | 5 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | -10 | -2.1 | -7.9 | 0 | 5.6 | -5.6 |
| 15 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 16 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | -10 | -5.2 | -4.8 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 17 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 13.8 | -5.8 | -4 | -7.2 | +3.2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | -7 | -5.2 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
PSV overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, with 101 goals from chances worth 76.1 xG, a gap of 24.9. NEC Nijmegen were next on 12.9.
FC Twente underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, with 59 goals from chances worth 70.7 xG, a shortfall of 11.7. FC Groningen were next on 10.3.
PSV were the luckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, with 84 points from performances worth 67.9 xPts, 16.1 more than their chances deserved. PEC Zwolle were next on 6.2.
NAC Breda were the unluckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, with 29 points from performances worth 44.4 xPts, 15.4 short of what they deserved. Heracles Almelo were next on 14.5.
PSV were also top of the Eredivisie in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 67.9 xPts from 76.1 xG created and 39.4 conceded across 34 matches. FC Twente were next on 63.0.
PSV created the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, 76.1 from 34 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.6. FC Twente were next on 70.7.
PEC Zwolle created the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, 36.6 from 34 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. FC Volendam were next on 38.0.
Go Ahead Eagles conceded the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, 73.1 from 34 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Heracles Almelo were next on 67.4.
Feyenoord conceded the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2025/2026, 38.8 from 34 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. PSV were next on 39.4.
Eredivisie teams averaged 1.58 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.59 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.48 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Eredivisie teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.78 a game against 1.39 away, a home advantage of +0.39, against +0.46 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 34 | 101 | 76.1 | +24.9 | 45 | 39.4 | +5.6 | +56 | 36.7 | +19.3 | 84 | 67.9 | +16.1 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 34 | 59 | 70.7 | -11.7 | 40 | 40.1 | -0.1 | +19 | 30.6 | -11.6 | 58 | 63.0 | -5.0 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 70 | 67.1 | +2.9 | 44 | 38.8 | +5.2 | +26 | 28.3 | -2.3 | 65 | 62.5 | +2.5 |
| 4 | AZ | 34 | 58 | 63.6 | -5.6 | 51 | 46.1 | +4.9 | +7 | 17.5 | -10.5 | 52 | 56.5 | -4.5 |
| 5 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 77 | 64.1 | +12.9 | 53 | 48.4 | +4.6 | +24 | 15.7 | +8.3 | 59 | 54.5 | +4.5 |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 34 | 57 | 61.7 | -4.7 | 53 | 51.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 10.3 | -6.3 | 51 | 54.4 | -3.4 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 34 | 49 | 59.3 | -10.3 | 45 | 48.7 | -3.7 | +4 | 10.6 | -6.6 | 48 | 53.2 | -5.2 |
| 8 | FC Utrecht | 34 | 55 | 53.6 | +1.4 | 42 | 45.4 | -3.4 | +13 | 8.2 | +4.8 | 53 | 52.3 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Ajax | 34 | 62 | 55.2 | +6.8 | 41 | 48.2 | -7.2 | +21 | 7.0 | +14.0 | 56 | 50.7 | +5.3 |
| 10 | NAC Breda | 34 | 35 | 44.7 | -9.7 | 58 | 50.5 | +7.5 | -23 | -5.8 | -17.2 | 29 | 44.4 | -15.4 |
| 11 | Excelsior | 34 | 43 | 48.7 | -5.7 | 56 | 58.5 | -2.5 | -13 | -9.8 | -3.2 | 38 | 40.9 | -2.9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 40 | 45.7 | -5.7 | 62 | 59.6 | +2.4 | -22 | -13.8 | -8.2 | 43 | 40.7 | +2.3 |
| 13 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 49 | 47.7 | +1.3 | 63 | 59.8 | +3.2 | -14 | -12.0 | -2.0 | 39 | 39.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Telstar | 34 | 49 | 48.5 | +0.5 | 55 | 64.4 | -9.4 | -6 | -15.9 | +9.9 | 37 | 38.9 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 54 | 44.7 | +9.3 | 53 | 73.1 | -20.1 | +1 | -28.5 | +29.5 | 38 | 34.8 | +3.2 |
| 16 | Heracles Almelo | 34 | 35 | 43.2 | -8.2 | 85 | 67.4 | +17.6 | -50 | -24.2 | -25.8 | 19 | 33.5 | -14.5 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 34 | 35 | 38.0 | -3.0 | 55 | 63.4 | -8.4 | -20 | -25.4 | +5.4 | 32 | 33.3 | -1.3 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 44 | 36.6 | +7.4 | 71 | 65.9 | +5.1 | -27 | -29.2 | +2.2 | 37 | 30.8 | +6.2 |