Start have the biggest shortfall in the Eliteserien: 16 points from chances worth 24.7 xPts, a gap of 8.7. At the other end, Viking have taken 50 points from an xPts figure of 40.4, 9.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 10 | 31 | 34.7 | -3.7 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +25 | 28.7 | -3.7 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Tromsø | 11 | 21 | 22.8 | -1.8 | 9 | 12.4 | -3.4 | +12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | 24 | 21.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | Viking | 10 | 38 | 28.7 | +9.3 | 10 | 14.5 | -4.5 | +28 | 14.2 | +13.8 | 30 | 21.0 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 11 | 27 | 21.2 | +5.8 | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 | +14 | 7.3 | +6.7 | 23 | 19.7 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Molde | 11 | 24 | 19.9 | +4.1 | 13 | 13.3 | -0.3 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 22 | 19.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Brann | 11 | 20 | 22.2 | -2.2 | 16 | 15.4 | +0.6 | +4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 18 | 18.8 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 | 10 | 12 | 19.7 | -7.7 | 12 | 14.7 | -2.7 | +0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 15 | 16.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | Start | 10 | 12 | 19.9 | -7.9 | 15 | 15.9 | -0.9 | -3 | 3.9 | -6.9 | 12 | 16.3 | -4.3 |
| 9 | Vålerenga | 11 | 20 | 19.8 | +0.2 | 19 | 18.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 14 | 16.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Lillestrøm | 10 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 15 | 15.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Aalesund | 11 | 22 | 19.9 | +2.1 | 26 | 24.1 | +1.9 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 12 | 13.6 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 11 | 10 | 14.8 | -4.8 | 10 | 18.2 | -8.2 | +0 | -3.4 | +3.4 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Fredrikstad | 10 | 13 | 13.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 15.5 | -4.5 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 17 | 12.5 | +4.5 |
| 14 | HamKam | 10 | 17 | 15.4 | +1.6 | 19 | 18.7 | +0.3 | -2 | -3.3 | +1.3 | 17 | 12.0 | +5.0 |
| 15 | KFUM | 11 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 13 | 19.8 | -6.8 | +0 | -8.1 | +8.1 | 17 | 10.7 | +6.3 |
| 16 | Kristiansund | 10 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 | 14 | 19.8 | -5.8 | -1 | -7.4 | +6.4 | 14 | 10.5 | +3.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 11 | 22 | 24.3 | -2.3 | 13 | 15.1 | -2.1 | +9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 23 | 20.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | Viking | 11 | 16 | 22.2 | -6.2 | 10 | 14.9 | -4.9 | +6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 20 | 19.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Molde | 10 | 20 | 21.6 | -1.6 | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 | +1 | 6.2 | -5.2 | 14 | 17.0 | -3.0 |
| 4 | Lillestrøm | 11 | 11 | 18.3 | -7.3 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 17 | 14.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Vålerenga | 10 | 14 | 17.3 | -3.3 | 24 | 18.3 | +5.7 | -10 | -1.0 | -9.0 | 9 | 13.4 | -4.4 |
| 6 | Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 12 | 15.9 | -3.9 | 17 | 19.6 | -2.6 | -5 | -3.7 | -1.3 | 10 | 13.2 | -3.2 |
| 7 | Tromsø | 10 | 19 | 13.3 | +5.7 | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Rosenborg | 10 | 12 | 16.4 | -4.4 | 17 | 19.6 | -2.6 | -5 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Kristiansund | 11 | 8 | 13.4 | -5.4 | 26 | 21.1 | +4.9 | -18 | -7.7 | -10.3 | 5 | 12.1 | -7.1 |
| 10 | HamKam | 11 | 12 | 13.2 | -1.2 | 25 | 20.4 | +4.6 | -13 | -7.3 | -5.7 | 6 | 11.7 | -5.7 |
| 11 | Brann | 10 | 19 | 15.3 | +3.7 | 16 | 21.3 | -5.3 | +3 | -5.9 | +8.9 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 10 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | 17 | 21.2 | -4.2 | -6 | -7.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | KFUM | 10 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 | 22 | 19.6 | +2.4 | -10 | -6.2 | -3.8 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | Fredrikstad | 11 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | 21 | 23.8 | -2.8 | -9 | -10.9 | +1.9 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 10 | 11 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 20 | 22.3 | -2.3 | -9 | -9.3 | +0.3 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Start | 11 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 | -19 | -12.6 | -6.4 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 5 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | +4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 |
| 2 | Viking | 5 | 15 | 14.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | +10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | Molde | 5 | 15 | 10.3 | +4.7 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 |
| 4 | Vålerenga | 5 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 14 | 7.3 | +6.7 | -3 | 2.7 | -5.7 | 3 | 8.5 | -5.5 |
| 5 | Tromsø | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 12 | 6.1 | +5.9 | -4 | 1.5 | -5.5 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 5 | 16 | 9.5 | +6.5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | +7 | 0.7 | +6.3 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 |
| 7 | Brann | 5 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 | 5 | 5 | 8.9 | -3.9 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -3 | 1.4 | -4.4 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 |
| 9 | Start | 5 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Kristiansund | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 14 | 10.2 | +3.8 | -8 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 12 | Aalesund | 5 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 10.9 | -5.9 | +3 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 |
| 14 | Lillestrøm | 5 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | -3 | -3.2 | +0.2 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 15 | KFUM | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 11.4 | -2.4 | -2 | -5.8 | +3.8 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
| 16 | HamKam | 5 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8 | -12 | -7.4 | -4.6 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
Tromsø are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 40 goals from chances worth 36.1 xG, a gap of 3.9. Viking are next on 3.1.
Sarpsborg 08 are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 24 goals from chances worth 35.6 xG, a shortfall of 11.6. Start are next on 9.0.
Viking are the luckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 50 points from performances worth 40.4 xPts, 9.6 more than their chances deserved. Fredrikstad are next on 5.9.
Start are the unluckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 16 points from performances worth 24.7 xPts, 8.7 short of what they deserved. Vålerenga are next on 6.4.
Bodø / Glimt would also be top of the Eliteserien in 2026 on expected points, with 47.4 xPts from 59.1 xG created and 21.1 conceded across 21 matches. Viking are next on 40.4.
Bodø / Glimt have created the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 59.1 from 21 matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Viking are next on 50.9.
KFUM have created the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 25.1 from 21 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Kristiansund are next on 25.7.
Aalesund have conceded the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 46.4 from 21 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Kristiansund are next on 40.9.
Bodø / Glimt have conceded the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 21.1 from 21 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Molde are next on 28.7.
Eliteserien teams have averaged 1.69 xG a game in 2026, from the 168 matches played, and have scored 1.58 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.61 xG a game in 2025.
Eliteserien teams create more xG at home in 2026, 1.86 a game against 1.52 away, a home advantage of +0.34, against +0.36 in 2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 21 | 53 | 59.1 | -6.1 | 19 | 21.1 | -2.1 | +34 | 38.0 | -4.0 | 50 | 47.4 | +2.6 |
| 2 | Viking | 21 | 54 | 50.9 | +3.1 | 20 | 29.4 | -9.4 | +34 | 21.5 | +12.5 | 50 | 40.4 | +9.6 |
| 3 | Molde | 21 | 44 | 41.5 | +2.5 | 32 | 28.7 | +3.3 | +12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | 36 | 36.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Tromsø | 21 | 40 | 36.1 | +3.9 | 29 | 29.4 | -0.4 | +11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 38 | 34.4 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 39 | 37.6 | +1.4 | 30 | 33.4 | -3.4 | +9 | 4.2 | +4.8 | 33 | 32.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Sarpsborg 08 | 21 | 24 | 35.6 | -11.6 | 29 | 34.3 | -5.3 | -5 | 1.3 | -6.3 | 25 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 7 | Lillestrøm | 21 | 28 | 35.2 | -7.2 | 29 | 34.5 | -5.5 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 32 | 29.7 | +2.3 |
| 8 | Brann | 21 | 39 | 37.5 | +1.5 | 32 | 36.6 | -4.6 | +7 | 0.9 | +6.1 | 29 | 29.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Vålerenga | 21 | 34 | 37.1 | -3.1 | 43 | 36.7 | +6.3 | -9 | 0.4 | -9.4 | 23 | 29.4 | -6.4 |
| 10 | Start | 21 | 22 | 31.0 | -9.0 | 44 | 39.7 | +4.3 | -22 | -8.7 | -13.3 | 16 | 24.7 | -8.7 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 21 | 28.5 | -7.5 | 27 | 39.4 | -12.4 | -6 | -10.9 | +4.9 | 23 | 23.9 | -0.9 |
| 12 | HamKam | 21 | 29 | 28.5 | +0.5 | 44 | 39.2 | +4.8 | -15 | -10.6 | -4.4 | 23 | 23.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 21 | 33 | 32.9 | +0.1 | 46 | 46.4 | -0.4 | -13 | -13.5 | +0.5 | 21 | 22.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Kristiansund | 21 | 21 | 25.7 | -4.7 | 40 | 40.9 | -0.9 | -19 | -15.1 | -3.9 | 19 | 22.6 | -3.6 |
| 15 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 25 | 25.9 | -0.9 | 32 | 39.3 | -7.3 | -7 | -13.4 | +6.4 | 28 | 22.1 | +5.9 |
| 16 | KFUM | 21 | 25 | 25.1 | -0.1 | 35 | 39.4 | -4.4 | -10 | -14.3 | +4.3 | 25 | 21.0 | +4.0 |