KFUM have the biggest shortfall in the Eliteserien: 35 points from chances worth 46.1 xPts, a gap of 11.1. At the other end, Viking have taken 71 points from an xPts figure of 56.4, 14.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 15 | 50 | 44.8 | +5.2 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | +39 | 32.5 | +6.5 | 37 | 35.6 | +1.4 |
| 2 | Brann | 15 | 31 | 30.9 | +0.1 | 19 | 12.3 | +6.7 | +12 | 18.6 | -6.6 | 33 | 32.2 | +0.8 |
| 3 | Viking | 15 | 43 | 38.7 | +4.3 | 15 | 16.7 | -1.7 | +28 | 21.9 | +6.1 | 38 | 30.7 | +7.3 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 15 | 27 | 31.7 | -4.7 | 12 | 17.5 | -5.5 | +15 | 14.3 | +0.7 | 27 | 27.5 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Molde | 15 | 29 | 32.3 | -3.3 | 19 | 20.5 | -1.5 | +10 | 11.8 | -1.8 | 25 | 26.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Tromsø | 15 | 24 | 27.2 | -3.2 | 13 | 17.4 | -4.4 | +11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 31 | 26.8 | +4.2 |
| 7 | KFUM | 15 | 26 | 20.8 | +5.2 | 22 | 13.6 | +8.4 | +4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | 20 | 24.8 | -4.8 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 24 | 25.5 | -1.5 | 16 | 24.2 | -8.2 | +8 | 1.3 | +6.7 | 25 | 21.7 | +3.3 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 15 | 24 | 26.1 | -2.1 | 26 | 25.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 19 | 21.4 | -2.4 |
| 10 | Bryne | 15 | 21 | 23.7 | -2.7 | 24 | 22.0 | +2.0 | -3 | 1.7 | -4.7 | 22 | 21.3 | +0.7 |
| 11 | Vålerenga | 15 | 31 | 28.7 | +2.3 | 21 | 27.2 | -6.2 | +10 | 1.5 | +8.5 | 28 | 21.3 | +6.7 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 15 | 31 | 20.2 | +10.8 | 12 | 20.8 | -8.8 | +19 | -0.6 | +19.6 | 34 | 20.8 | +13.2 |
| 13 | HamKam | 15 | 27 | 23.6 | +3.4 | 22 | 24.8 | -2.8 | +5 | -1.2 | +6.2 | 24 | 20.1 | +3.9 |
| 14 | Kristiansund | 15 | 19 | 18.9 | +0.1 | 24 | 23.8 | +0.2 | -5 | -4.9 | -0.1 | 19 | 18.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Strømsgodset | 15 | 16 | 23.5 | -7.5 | 35 | 32.5 | +2.5 | -19 | -9.0 | -10.0 | 10 | 16.8 | -6.8 |
| 16 | Haugesund | 15 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | 40 | 32.3 | +7.7 | -29 | -20.0 | -9.0 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 15 | 35 | 36.3 | -1.3 | 17 | 21.0 | -4.0 | +18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | 33 | 27.7 | +5.3 |
| 2 | Viking | 15 | 34 | 25.5 | +8.5 | 21 | 17.0 | +4.0 | +13 | 8.5 | +4.5 | 33 | 25.6 | +7.4 |
| 3 | Sarpsborg 08 | 15 | 24 | 35.2 | -11.2 | 24 | 25.7 | -1.7 | +0 | 9.4 | -9.4 | 22 | 25.1 | -3.1 |
| 4 | Brann | 15 | 24 | 28.0 | -4.0 | 27 | 20.0 | +7.0 | -3 | 8.0 | -11.0 | 23 | 24.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Tromsø | 15 | 26 | 24.0 | +2.0 | 23 | 18.9 | +4.1 | +3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 26 | 23.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | KFUM | 15 | 16 | 18.4 | -2.4 | 19 | 18.0 | +1.0 | -3 | 0.3 | -3.3 | 15 | 21.2 | -6.2 |
| 7 | Molde | 15 | 17 | 19.6 | -2.6 | 23 | 24.1 | -1.1 | -6 | -4.6 | -1.4 | 14 | 17.6 | -3.6 |
| 8 | Sandefjord | 15 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 | 30 | 31.8 | -1.8 | -6 | -8.8 | +2.8 | 14 | 17.5 | -3.5 |
| 9 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 | 19 | 23.5 | -4.5 | -5 | -7.0 | +2.0 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 15 | 18 | 18.6 | -0.6 | 30 | 27.5 | +2.5 | -12 | -9.0 | -3.0 | 15 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Kristiansund | 15 | 18 | 21.2 | -3.2 | 35 | 35.6 | -0.6 | -17 | -14.4 | -2.6 | 16 | 14.5 | +1.5 |
| 12 | Vålerenga | 15 | 18 | 14.7 | +3.3 | 32 | 26.8 | +5.2 | -14 | -12.1 | -1.9 | 13 | 14.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | Bryne | 15 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 | 32 | 29.6 | +2.4 | -16 | -13.1 | -2.9 | 9 | 13.6 | -4.6 |
| 14 | HamKam | 15 | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 | 25 | 29.3 | -4.3 | -10 | -13.9 | +3.9 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Strømsgodset | 15 | 21 | 18.2 | +2.8 | 37 | 31.2 | +5.8 | -16 | -13.0 | -3.0 | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Haugesund | 15 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | 40 | 48.7 | -8.7 | -29 | -36.4 | +7.4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromsø | 5 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 12 | 12.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Viking | 5 | 16 | 9.5 | +6.5 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +13 | 5.6 | +7.4 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 |
| 3 | Brann | 5 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | 10 | 3.9 | +6.1 | -4 | 4.9 | -8.9 | 4 | 9.8 | -5.8 |
| 4 | Bodø / Glimt | 5 | 15 | 10.3 | +4.7 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | +10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Molde | 5 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 5 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +4 | -0.6 | +4.6 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HamKam | 5 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 |
| 8 | KFUM | 5 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 11 | 6.4 | +4.6 | -7 | -0.2 | -6.8 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 9 | Sandefjord | 5 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 | +5 | -1.4 | +6.4 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 10 | Kristiansund | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 | 5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | -1 | -2.8 | +1.8 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | -2 | -3.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 13 | Bryne | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 15 | 10.9 | +4.1 | -8 | -4.8 | -3.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 14 | Vålerenga | 5 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Strømsgodset | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 18 | 11.3 | +6.7 | -13 | -5.1 | -7.9 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| 16 | Haugesund | 5 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 15 | 13.4 | +1.6 | -8 | -9.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
Viking overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2025, with 77 goals from chances worth 64.2 xG, a gap of 12.8. Sandefjord were next on 11.8.
Sarpsborg 08 underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2025, with 48 goals from chances worth 61.3 xG, a shortfall of 13.3. Molde were next on 5.9.
Viking were the luckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2025, with 71 points from performances worth 56.4 xPts, 14.6 more than their chances deserved. Sandefjord were next on 9.8.
KFUM were the unluckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2025, with 35 points from performances worth 46.1 xPts, 11.1 short of what they deserved. Strømsgodset were next on 9.9.
Bodø / Glimt would be top of the Eliteserien in 2025 on expected points, with 63.4 xPts from 81.1 xG created and 33.3 conceded across 30 matches. Brann were next on 57.0.
Bodø / Glimt created the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2025, 81.1 from 30 matches, 2.7 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Viking were next on 64.2.
Haugesund created the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2025, 24.6 from 30 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.6. HamKam were next on 39.0.
Haugesund conceded the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2025, 81.0 from 30 matches, 2.7 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Strømsgodset were next on 63.8.
KFUM conceded the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2025, 31.6 from 30 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Brann were next on 32.3.
Eliteserien teams averaged 1.61 xG a game in 2025, from the 240 matches played, and scored 1.59 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.52 xG a game in 2024.
Eliteserien teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.79 a game against 1.43 away, a home advantage of +0.36, against +0.36 in 2024.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 30 | 85 | 81.1 | +3.9 | 28 | 33.3 | -5.3 | +57 | 47.8 | +9.2 | 70 | 63.4 | +6.6 |
| 2 | Brann | 30 | 55 | 59.0 | -4.0 | 46 | 32.3 | +13.7 | +9 | 26.6 | -17.6 | 56 | 57.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Viking | 30 | 77 | 64.2 | +12.8 | 36 | 33.8 | +2.2 | +41 | 30.4 | +10.6 | 71 | 56.4 | +14.6 |
| 4 | Tromsø | 30 | 50 | 51.1 | -1.1 | 36 | 36.3 | -0.3 | +14 | 14.8 | -0.8 | 57 | 50.3 | +6.7 |
| 5 | Sarpsborg 08 | 30 | 48 | 61.3 | -13.3 | 50 | 51.1 | -1.1 | -2 | 10.1 | -12.1 | 41 | 46.5 | -5.5 |
| 6 | KFUM | 30 | 42 | 39.2 | +2.8 | 41 | 31.6 | +9.4 | +1 | 7.6 | -6.6 | 35 | 46.1 | -11.1 |
| 7 | Molde | 30 | 46 | 51.9 | -5.9 | 42 | 44.6 | -2.6 | +4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 39 | 44.5 | -5.5 |
| 8 | Rosenborg | 30 | 45 | 50.3 | -5.3 | 42 | 45.0 | -3.0 | +3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 42 | 43.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Fredrikstad | 30 | 38 | 42.1 | -4.1 | 35 | 47.8 | -12.8 | +3 | -5.6 | +8.6 | 42 | 38.6 | +3.4 |
| 10 | Sandefjord | 30 | 55 | 43.2 | +11.8 | 42 | 52.6 | -10.6 | +13 | -9.4 | +22.4 | 48 | 38.2 | +9.8 |
| 11 | Vålerenga | 30 | 49 | 43.4 | +5.6 | 53 | 54.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -10.6 | +6.6 | 41 | 35.8 | +5.2 |
| 12 | Bryne | 30 | 37 | 40.2 | -3.2 | 56 | 51.6 | +4.4 | -19 | -11.3 | -7.7 | 31 | 34.9 | -3.9 |
| 13 | HamKam | 30 | 42 | 39.0 | +3.0 | 47 | 54.1 | -7.1 | -5 | -15.1 | +10.1 | 37 | 33.6 | +3.4 |
| 14 | Kristiansund | 30 | 37 | 40.2 | -3.2 | 59 | 59.4 | -0.4 | -22 | -19.3 | -2.7 | 35 | 32.7 | +2.3 |
| 15 | Strømsgodset | 30 | 37 | 41.7 | -4.7 | 72 | 63.8 | +8.2 | -35 | -22.1 | -12.9 | 20 | 29.9 | -9.9 |
| 16 | Haugesund | 30 | 22 | 24.6 | -2.6 | 80 | 81.0 | -1.0 | -58 | -56.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 15.4 | -6.4 |