Cercle Brugge have the biggest shortfall in the Belgian Pro League: 3 points from chances worth 9.1 xPts, a gap of 6.1. At the other end, Gent have taken 19 points from an xPts figure of 12.5, 6.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 4 | 10 | 11.7 | -1.7 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | +9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Anderlecht | 4 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Sporting Charleroi | 4 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 4 | Gent | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 5 | Sint-Truiden | 4 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | -1 | 2.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 6 | Genk | 3 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | +5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Standard Liège | 3 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | +8 | 3.4 | +4.6 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | KV Kortrijk | 4 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 11 | Cercle Brugge | 3 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | -4 | 1.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 3 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | +6 | 0.6 | +5.4 | 9 | 4.4 | +4.6 |
| 14 | Zulte-Waregem | 3 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +4 | 0.6 | +3.4 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
| 15 | La Louvière | 3 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Lommel SK | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +2 | -1.8 | +3.8 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Westerlo | 3 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Mechelen | 3 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -0.8 | -4.2 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +10 | 3.6 | +6.4 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
| 2 | Sporting Charleroi | 3 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Gent | 3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Westerlo | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +1 | -1.6 | +2.6 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Club Brugge | 3 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Zulte-Waregem | 4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Standard Liège | 4 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | -3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Mechelen | 4 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 11 | Genk | 4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 12 | Sint-Truiden | 3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | La Louvière | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -9 | -5.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 3 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 15 | Antwerp | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | +0 | -4.1 | +4.1 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 16 | Lommel SK | 3 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | -4 | -4.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
| 17 | SK Beveren | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | -10 | -7.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | -7 | -5.6 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 16 | 11.3 | +4.7 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 | +14 | 5.9 | +8.1 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
| 2 | Sporting Charleroi | 5 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Anderlecht | 5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | +2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Club Brugge | 5 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | +6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 |
| 5 | Westerlo | 5 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Gent | 5 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | +6 | 1.7 | +4.3 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 7 | Sint-Truiden | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 2.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 |
| 8 | Standard Liège | 5 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | +1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Zulte-Waregem | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Genk | 5 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 11 | OH Leuven | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 12 | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -6 | -1.1 | -4.9 | 1 | 6.1 | -5.1 |
| 13 | La Louvière | 5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Mechelen | 5 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -3.6 | -0.4 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 16 | Lommel SK | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | -1 | -3.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 5 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -7 | -3.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 18 | Antwerp | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | -8 | -8.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
Union Saint-Gilloise are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 21 goals from chances worth 14.6 xG, a gap of 6.4. Westerlo are next on 4.2.
Anderlecht are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 7 goals from chances worth 12.8 xG, a shortfall of 5.8. KV Kortrijk are next on 5.5.
Gent are the luckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 19 points from performances worth 12.5 xPts, 6.5 more than their chances deserved. Union Saint-Gilloise are next on 5.4.
Cercle Brugge are the unluckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 9.1 xPts, 6.1 short of what they deserved. Mechelen are next on 4.9.
Sporting Charleroi would be top of the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 14.3 xPts from 14.5 xG created and 7.0 conceded across seven matches. Club Brugge are next on 14.2.
Club Brugge have created the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 18.4 from seven matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Union Saint-Gilloise are next on 14.6.
Lommel SK have created the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 7.1 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. KV Kortrijk and SK Beveren are next on 7.5.
Antwerp have conceded the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 16.3 from seven matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.6. OH Leuven are next on 15.5.
Gent have conceded the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 6.1 from seven matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Anderlecht are next on 6.4.
Belgian Pro League teams have averaged 1.58 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 63 matches played, and have scored 1.47 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.48 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Belgian Pro League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.80 a game against 1.37 away, a home advantage of +0.43, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Charleroi | 7 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | +8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 18 | 14.3 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 7 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | 3 | 8.4 | -5.4 | +12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 18 | 14.2 | +3.8 |
| 3 | Anderlecht | 7 | 7 | 12.8 | -5.8 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 7 | 21 | 14.6 | +6.4 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | +18 | 7.0 | +11.0 | 19 | 13.6 | +5.4 |
| 5 | Gent | 7 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | +9 | 4.1 | +4.9 | 19 | 12.5 | +6.5 |
| 6 | Genk | 7 | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Standard Liège | 7 | 13 | 13.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | +1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Sint-Truiden | 7 | 12 | 14.0 | -2.0 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Zulte-Waregem | 7 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | +3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Cercle Brugge | 7 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 3 | 9.1 | -6.1 |
| 11 | Westerlo | 7 | 15 | 10.8 | +4.2 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Mechelen | 7 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | 14 | 11.1 | +2.9 | -9 | -2.3 | -6.7 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 13 | La Louvière | 7 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | -7 | -5.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 14 | Antwerp | 7 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 15 | 16.3 | -1.3 | -4 | -6.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 7 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 | 13 | 15.5 | -2.5 | -8 | -6.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 16 | KV Kortrijk | 7 | 2 | 7.5 | -5.5 | 15 | 13.7 | +1.3 | -13 | -6.2 | -6.8 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 17 | Lommel SK | 7 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 13.2 | -5.2 | -2 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 18 | SK Beveren | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 14.2 | -3.2 | -4 | -6.6 | +2.6 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 |