Cercle Brugge have the biggest shortfall in the Belgian Pro League: 38 points from chances worth 50.8 xPts, a gap of 12.8. At the other end, Union Saint-Gilloise have taken 86 points from an xPts figure of 72.4, 13.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 20 | 56 | 52.2 | +3.8 | 22 | 25.3 | -3.3 | +34 | 26.9 | +7.1 | 50 | 41.9 | +8.1 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 20 | 43 | 35.1 | +7.9 | 7 | 14.2 | -7.2 | +36 | 20.9 | +15.1 | 56 | 40.9 | +15.1 |
| 3 | Genk | 20 | 26 | 39.7 | -13.7 | 22 | 21.6 | +0.4 | +4 | 18.2 | -14.2 | 29 | 38.1 | -9.1 |
| 4 | Sint-Truiden | 20 | 32 | 38.8 | -6.8 | 23 | 28.1 | -5.1 | +9 | 10.7 | -1.7 | 41 | 34.3 | +6.7 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 20 | 35 | 33.4 | +1.6 | 24 | 26.6 | -2.6 | +11 | 6.8 | +4.2 | 35 | 32.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Westerlo | 20 | 26 | 29.6 | -3.6 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 | -1 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 25 | 29.8 | -4.8 |
| 7 | Sporting Charleroi | 20 | 26 | 29.5 | -3.5 | 26 | 26.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 24 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
| 8 | Gent | 20 | 29 | 29.7 | -0.7 | 21 | 29.5 | -8.5 | +8 | 0.2 | +7.8 | 30 | 28.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Antwerp | 20 | 26 | 26.3 | -0.3 | 26 | 27.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 28 | 27.6 | +0.4 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 20 | 22 | 27.0 | -5.0 | 27 | 26.9 | +0.1 | -5 | 0.1 | -5.1 | 20 | 27.5 | -7.5 |
| 11 | Zulte-Waregem | 18 | 27 | 28.4 | -1.4 | 22 | 25.5 | -3.5 | +5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 28 | 26.4 | +1.6 |
| 12 | Cercle Brugge | 17 | 23 | 28.6 | -5.6 | 35 | 26.9 | +8.1 | -12 | 1.7 | -13.7 | 11 | 25.5 | -14.5 |
| 13 | La Louvière | 18 | 16 | 21.9 | -5.9 | 20 | 23.2 | -3.2 | -4 | -1.3 | -2.7 | 19 | 23.5 | -4.5 |
| 14 | Standard Liège | 20 | 18 | 25.1 | -7.1 | 25 | 32.7 | -7.7 | -7 | -7.5 | +0.5 | 22 | 22.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Dender | 18 | 16 | 22.3 | -6.3 | 35 | 29.9 | +5.1 | -19 | -7.6 | -11.4 | 11 | 21.0 | -10.0 |
| 16 | Mechelen | 20 | 24 | 23.8 | +0.2 | 25 | 36.0 | -11.0 | -1 | -12.3 | +11.3 | 28 | 20.4 | +7.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 20 | 35 | 35.2 | -0.2 | 23 | 25.5 | -2.5 | +12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 38 | 33.5 | +4.5 |
| 2 | Sint-Truiden | 20 | 29 | 31.3 | -2.3 | 23 | 25.3 | -2.3 | +6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 30 | 31.8 | -1.8 |
| 3 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 20 | 23 | 30.5 | -7.5 | 20 | 23.3 | -3.3 | +3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 |
| 4 | Westerlo | 20 | 24 | 31.8 | -7.8 | 30 | 33.1 | -3.1 | -6 | -1.4 | -4.6 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Genk | 20 | 31 | 28.8 | +2.2 | 31 | 30.0 | +1.0 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 30 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
| 6 | Sporting Charleroi | 20 | 24 | 26.2 | -2.2 | 24 | 27.5 | -3.5 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Gent | 20 | 24 | 31.4 | -7.4 | 36 | 35.0 | +1.0 | -12 | -3.5 | -8.5 | 21 | 26.3 | -5.3 |
| 8 | Cercle Brugge | 18 | 27 | 30.1 | -3.1 | 23 | 28.9 | -5.9 | +4 | 1.2 | +2.8 | 27 | 25.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Standard Liège | 20 | 26 | 23.4 | +2.6 | 21 | 28.8 | -7.8 | +5 | -5.4 | +10.4 | 35 | 24.1 | +10.9 |
| 10 | Antwerp | 20 | 17 | 25.9 | -8.9 | 22 | 31.8 | -9.8 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 20 | 23.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Anderlecht | 20 | 24 | 28.1 | -4.1 | 38 | 39.0 | -1.0 | -14 | -10.8 | -3.2 | 20 | 22.2 | -2.2 |
| 12 | OH Leuven | 20 | 19 | 23.3 | -4.3 | 33 | 35.9 | -2.9 | -14 | -12.6 | -1.4 | 20 | 20.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | La Louvière | 17 | 19 | 18.9 | +0.1 | 27 | 23.9 | +3.1 | -8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 15 | 19.6 | -4.6 |
| 14 | Zulte-Waregem | 18 | 26 | 21.5 | +4.5 | 31 | 32.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -10.5 | +5.5 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Mechelen | 20 | 24 | 20.4 | +3.6 | 36 | 37.3 | -1.3 | -12 | -16.9 | +4.9 | 23 | 18.2 | +4.8 |
| 16 | Dender | 18 | 15 | 20.9 | -5.9 | 27 | 34.6 | -7.6 | -12 | -13.7 | +1.7 | 14 | 16.7 | -2.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 5 | 17 | 13.9 | +3.1 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | +14 | 7.6 | +6.4 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 11 | 5.5 | +5.5 | +0 | 3.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 3 | Zulte-Waregem | 5 | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | +9 | 2.2 | +6.8 | 15 | 8.2 | +6.8 |
| 4 | Gent | 5 | 2 | 8.6 | -6.6 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -6 | 1.2 | -7.2 | 3 | 8.1 | -5.1 |
| 5 | Genk | 5 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 | 2 | 6.6 | -4.6 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | La Louvière | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | -5 | 1.1 | -6.1 | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Sporting Charleroi | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Sint-Truiden | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Standard Liège | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | +5 | 0.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 11 | OH Leuven | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 5 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -7 | -1.9 | -5.1 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 13 | Westerlo | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 14 | Dender | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -4.6 | -0.4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 5 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | -4 | -4.9 | +0.9 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 16 | Mechelen | 5 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -4.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
Mechelen overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, with 48 goals from chances worth 44.2 xG, a gap of 3.8. Club Brugge were next on 3.6.
Dender underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, with 31 goals from chances worth 43.2 xG, a shortfall of 12.2. Genk were next on 11.5.
Union Saint-Gilloise were the luckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, with 86 points from performances worth 72.4 xPts, 13.6 more than their chances deserved. Club Brugge were next on 12.6.
Cercle Brugge were the unluckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, with 38 points from performances worth 50.8 xPts, 12.8 short of what they deserved. Dender were next on 12.7.
Club Brugge were also top of the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 75.4 xPts from 87.4 xG created and 50.8 conceded across 40 matches. Union Saint-Gilloise were next on 72.4.
Club Brugge created the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, 87.4 from 40 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sint-Truiden were next on 70.0.
La Louvière created the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, 40.8 from 35 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Dender were next on 43.2.
Mechelen conceded the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, 73.3 from 40 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Anderlecht were next on 65.6.
Union Saint-Gilloise conceded the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2025/2026, 37.5 from 40 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. La Louvière were next on 47.0.
Belgian Pro League teams averaged 1.48 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 311 matches played, and scored 1.34 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.51 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Belgian Pro League teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.58 a game against 1.38 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.38 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 40 | 91 | 87.4 | +3.6 | 45 | 50.8 | -5.8 | +46 | 36.6 | +9.4 | 88 | 75.4 | +12.6 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 40 | 66 | 65.6 | +0.4 | 27 | 37.5 | -10.5 | +39 | 28.2 | +10.8 | 86 | 72.4 | +13.6 |
| 3 | Sint-Truiden | 40 | 61 | 70.0 | -9.0 | 46 | 53.4 | -7.4 | +15 | 16.7 | -1.7 | 71 | 66.1 | +4.9 |
| 4 | Genk | 40 | 57 | 68.5 | -11.5 | 53 | 51.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 17.0 | -13.0 | 59 | 65.1 | -6.1 |
| 5 | Westerlo | 40 | 50 | 61.4 | -11.4 | 57 | 60.2 | -3.2 | -7 | 1.2 | -8.2 | 52 | 56.9 | -4.9 |
| 6 | Sporting Charleroi | 40 | 50 | 55.8 | -5.8 | 50 | 54.3 | -4.3 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 51 | 55.8 | -4.8 |
| 7 | Gent | 40 | 53 | 61.1 | -8.1 | 57 | 64.5 | -7.5 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 51 | 54.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Anderlecht | 40 | 59 | 61.5 | -2.5 | 62 | 65.6 | -3.6 | -3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 55 | 54.5 | +0.5 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 35 | 50 | 58.7 | -8.7 | 58 | 55.8 | +2.2 | -8 | 3.0 | -11.0 | 38 | 50.8 | -12.8 |
| 10 | Antwerp | 40 | 43 | 52.2 | -9.2 | 48 | 59.0 | -11.0 | -5 | -6.8 | +1.8 | 48 | 50.7 | -2.7 |
| 11 | OH Leuven | 40 | 41 | 50.3 | -9.3 | 60 | 62.8 | -2.8 | -19 | -12.5 | -6.5 | 40 | 48.2 | -8.2 |
| 12 | Standard Liège | 40 | 44 | 48.6 | -4.6 | 46 | 61.4 | -15.4 | -2 | -12.9 | +10.9 | 57 | 47.0 | +10.0 |
| 13 | Zulte-Waregem | 36 | 53 | 49.9 | +3.1 | 53 | 57.5 | -4.5 | +0 | -7.6 | +7.6 | 48 | 45.1 | +2.9 |
| 14 | La Louvière | 35 | 35 | 40.8 | -5.8 | 47 | 47.0 | +0.0 | -12 | -6.3 | -5.7 | 34 | 43.1 | -9.1 |
| 15 | Mechelen | 40 | 48 | 44.2 | +3.8 | 61 | 73.3 | -12.3 | -13 | -29.1 | +16.1 | 51 | 38.6 | +12.4 |
| 16 | Dender | 36 | 31 | 43.2 | -12.2 | 62 | 64.5 | -2.5 | -31 | -21.3 | -9.7 | 25 | 37.7 | -12.7 |