Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Nigeria overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, with 8 goals from chances worth 5.9 xG, a gap of 2.1. Tunisia were next on 2.0.
Egypt underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, with 3 goals from chances worth 4.9 xG, a shortfall of 1.9. Mali were next on 1.8.
Nigeria were the luckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, with 9 points from performances worth 6.4 xPts, 2.6 more than their chances deserved. Algeria were next on 2.3.
Gabon were the unluckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, with no points from performances worth 3.5 xPts, 3.5 short of what they deserved. Equatorial Guinea were next on 3.1.
Morocco would be top of the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025 on expected points, with 7.4 xPts from 6.4 xG created and 1.4 conceded across three matches. Algeria were next on 6.7.
Senegal created the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, 7.1 from three matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.2. The Congo DR were next on 6.5.
The Comoros and Botswana shared the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, both on 0.9 from three matches, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Zambia were next on 1.2.
Botswana conceded the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, 9.5 from three matches, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Zimbabwe were next on 6.5.
Morocco conceded the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, 1.4 from three matches, 0.5 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Algeria were next on 1.9.
Africa Cup of Nations teams averaged 1.24 xG a game in 2025, from the 36 matches played, and scored 1.21 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.14 xG a game in 2023.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | +5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Algeria | 3 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | +6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | +6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 4 | Nigeria | 3 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | +4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Congo DR | 3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Tunisia | 3 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 8 | Egypt | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Angola | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 |
| 10 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 11 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
| 12 | South Africa | 3 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 0.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 13 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 14 | Gabon | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| 15 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | -4 | -1.6 | -2.4 | 0 | 3.1 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Tanzania | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 19 | Mozambique | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -2.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 20 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 21 | Zimbabwe | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -3.8 | +1.8 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| 22 | Uganda | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | -4 | -3.1 | -0.9 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 |
| 23 | Zambia | 3 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 24 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | -7 | -8.7 | +1.7 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |