Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Equatorial Guinea overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, with 9 goals from chances worth 3.2 xG, a gap of 5.8. Senegal were next on 4.1.
The Congo DR underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, with 2 goals from chances worth 5.7 xG, a shortfall of 3.7. Nigeria were next on 2.2.
Equatorial Guinea were the luckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, with 7 points from performances worth 2.9 xPts, 4.1 more than their chances deserved. Senegal were next on 3.3.
The Congo DR were the unluckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, with 3 points from performances worth 6.9 xPts, 3.9 short of what they deserved. Egypt were next on 3.5.
The Congo DR would be top of the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023 on expected points, with 6.9 xPts from 5.7 xG created and 1.2 conceded across three matches. Nigeria were next on 6.7.
Morocco created the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, 5.8 from three matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.1. The Congo DR were next on 5.7.
Tanzania created the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, 0.5 from three matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Zambia were next on 1.3.
Equatorial Guinea conceded the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, 5.8 from three matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Ghana, the Gambia and Zambia were next on 5.5.
The Congo DR conceded the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, 1.2 from three matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Nigeria were next on 1.3.
Africa Cup of Nations teams averaged 1.14 xG a game in 2023, from the 36 matches played, and scored 1.24 goals a game from it.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | +0 | 4.4 | -4.4 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 3 | Egypt | 3 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 1.6 | +4.4 | +0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Morocco | 3 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | +4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Senegal | 3 | 8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 2.1 | +4.9 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 |
| 6 | Angola | 3 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 7 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Guinea | 3 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | South Africa | 3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 0.2 | +3.8 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 |
| 13 | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Namibia | 3 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 16 | Cameroon | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 17 | Mauritania | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 18 | Ghana | 3 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 19 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 9 | 3.2 | +5.8 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +6 | -2.6 | +8.6 | 7 | 2.9 | +4.1 |
| 20 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 |
| 21 | Mozambique | 3 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| 22 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | -5 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 23 | Zambia | 3 | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | -1 | -4.2 | +3.2 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 24 | Tanzania | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | -3 | -3.3 | +0.3 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 |