Bahia host São Paulo at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador on 29 October 2026 at 00:30 in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Bahia's last five results: L L W L D (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses). São Paulo's last five: L L W W D (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). In their last 6 meetings, Bahia have won 1, São Paulo 4, with 1 draw.
Bahia vs São Paulo kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 29 October 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro, at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador.
Bahia vs São Paulo is being played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, the home ground of Bahia.
Bahia's last five results read L L W L D (oldest to newest): 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses.
São Paulo's last five results read L L W W D (oldest to newest): 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
Across the last 6 meetings Bahia have won 1, São Paulo have won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was São Paulo 2-2 Bahia on 3 May 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Luciano Juba leads Bahia with 4 goals across their last 10 games.
Artur leads São Paulo with 10 shots on target across their last 10 games.
Anderson Daronco is the referee for Bahia vs São Paulo, averaging 27.0 fouls and 2.8 yellow cards per game this season.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Bahia and São Paulo are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Bahia the favourite with a 45% chance of winning, against 28% for São Paulo and 27% for the draw. Projected goals are Bahia 1.6 - 1.2 São Paulo.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 13%. Both teams to score is 56% likely and over 2.5 goals 52%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo vs Bahia | 2-2 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo vs Bahia | 2-0 |
| 31 May 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs São Paulo | 2-1 |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs São Paulo | 0-3 |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo vs Bahia | 3-1 |
| 29 Nov 2023 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs São Paulo | 0-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Bahia 1.6 - 1.2 São Paulo in goals. It gives Bahia a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and São Paulo 28%. Both teams to score is 56% likely, over 1.5 goals 77% and over 2.5 goals 52%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 0-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 13% |
| 2-1 | Bahia win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Bahia win | 9% |
| 2-0 | Bahia win | 8% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Bahia vs São Paulo, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Bahia | Fouls committed | São Paulo | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Acevedo | 16 | P. Lima | 13 |
| 2 | A. Veliz | 13 | Iago | 12 |
| 3 | R. Nestor | 13 | Djhordney | 12 |
| 4 | J. Lucas | 12 | M. Antônio | 10 |
| 5 | E. Pulga | 10 | P. Maia | 10 |
| # | Bahia | Shots | São Paulo | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Veliz | 30 | Artur | 29 |
| 2 | E. Pulga | 24 | Luciano | 20 |
| 3 | R. Nestor | 20 | G. Santana | 15 |
| 4 | C. Olivera | 15 | J. Calleri | 9 |
| 5 | L. Juba | 11 | Iago | 8 |
| # | Bahia | Shots on target | São Paulo | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Pulga | 9 | Artur | 10 |
| 2 | A. Veliz | 7 | G. Santana | 6 |
| 3 | L. Juba | 6 | Luciano | 5 |
| 4 | C. Olivera | 5 | Iago | 4 |
| 5 | R. Nestor | 4 | J. Calleri | 3 |
| # | Bahia | Goals | São Paulo | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Juba | 4 | J. Calleri | 3 |
| 2 | E. Pulga | 3 | Luciano | 3 |
| 3 | A. Veliz | 3 | P. Lima | 1 |
| 4 | J. Lucas | 2 | Artur | 1 |
| 5 | Erick | 2 | Iago | 1 |
| # | Bahia | Yellow cards | São Paulo | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Acevedo | 4 | Iago | 3 |
| 2 | J. Lucas | 4 | Djhordney | 3 |
| 3 | C. Olivera | 3 | J. Calleri | 2 |
| 4 | R. Gómez | 2 | Luciano | 2 |
| 5 | E. Pulga | 2 | Artur | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Bahia vs São Paulo: Marcos Victor 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.62); Erick 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.25); Luciano Juba 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.29); David Duarte 1+ tackles (80% hit rate at 1.57). Combined odds 4.1 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.5 | 7 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.6 | 10 of 20 |
| Fouls | 14 | 2 of 20 |
| Tackles | 15.7 | 6 of 20 |
| Passes | 435.5 | 9 of 20 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 6 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.2 | 17 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.1 | 3 of 20 |
| Shots | 13.5 | 13 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.1 | 15 of 20 |
| Fouls | 13.9 | 4 of 20 |
| Tackles | 16.2 | 4 of 20 |
| Passes | 457.8 | 3 of 20 |
| Corners | 6.8 | 1 of 20 |