Wales host Norway at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff on 1 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Wales's last five results: D D L L L (2 draws and 3 losses). Norway's last five: W W L W L (3 wins and 2 losses).
Wales vs Norway kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 1 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
Wales vs Norway is being played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff, the home ground of Wales.
Wales's last five results read D D L L L (oldest to newest): 2 draws and 3 losses.
Norway's last five results read W W L W L (oldest to newest): 3 wins and 2 losses.
Ethan Ampadu leads Wales with 15 fouls committed across their last 10 games.
Erling Haaland leads Norway with 10 goals across their last 10 games.
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández is the referee for Wales vs Norway, averaging 26.7 fouls and 6.3 yellow cards per game this season.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Wales and Norway are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Norway the favourite with a 56% chance of winning, against 22% for Wales and 22% for the draw. Projected goals are Wales 1.2 - 1.9 Norway.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 10%. Both teams to score is 59% likely and over 2.5 goals 60%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
Statz's projection model expects Wales 1.2 - 1.9 Norway in goals. It gives Wales a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Norway 56%. Both teams to score is 59% likely, over 1.5 goals 81% and over 2.5 goals 60%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (6%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 10% |
| 1-2 | Norway win | 10% |
| 0-1 | Norway win | 9% |
| 0-2 | Norway win | 9% |
| 1-3 | Norway win | 6% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Wales vs Norway, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Wales | Fouls committed | Norway | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Ampadu | 15 | J. Ryerson | 12 |
| 2 | N. Williams | 13 | D. Wolfe | 11 |
| 3 | L. Koumas | 8 | A. Sørloth | 10 |
| 4 | H. Wilson | 6 | S. Berge | 8 |
| 5 | D. Brooks | 6 | M. Ødegaard | 8 |
| # | Wales | Shots | Norway | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. James | 16 | E. Haaland | 34 |
| 2 | H. Wilson | 15 | A. Nusa | 16 |
| 3 | D. Brooks | 13 | M. Ødegaard | 15 |
| 4 | N. Williams | 11 | A. Sørloth | 9 |
| 5 | L. Koumas | 11 | A. Schjelderup | 9 |
| # | Wales | Shots on target | Norway | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Koumas | 7 | E. Haaland | 21 |
| 2 | J. James | 5 | A. Nusa | 5 |
| 3 | D. Brooks | 5 | M. Ødegaard | 5 |
| 4 | D. James | 5 | J. Larsen | 4 |
| 5 | H. Wilson | 4 | A. Schjelderup | 4 |
| # | Wales | Goals | Norway | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Wilson | 3 | E. Haaland | 10 |
| 2 | N. Broadhead | 2 | A. Nusa | 2 |
| 3 | D. Brooks | 2 | J. Larsen | 2 |
| 4 | D. James | 2 | A. Schjelderup | 1 |
| 5 | J. Rodon | 1 | T. Aasgaard | 1 |
| # | Wales | Yellow cards | Norway | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Williams | 1 | K. Ajer | 2 |
| 2 | B. Davies | 1 | A. Nusa | 1 |
| 3 | H. Wilson | 1 | P. Berg | 1 |
| 4 | E. Ampadu | 1 | F. Aursnes | 1 |
| 5 | L. Koumas | 1 | J. Ryerson | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Wales vs Norway: Erling Haaland 1+ goals (100% hit rate at 1.40); Patrick Berg 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.22); Julian Ryerson 1+ fouls (80% hit rate at 1.25). Combined odds 1.98 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0 | 49 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.5 | 42 of 54 |
| Shots | 7.5 | 44 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 49 of 54 |
| Fouls | 13.5 | 20 of 54 |
| Tackles | 10.5 | 48 of 54 |
| Passes | 372.5 | 45 of 54 |
| Corners | 3 | 37 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 9 of 54 |
| Goals against | 2 | 45 of 54 |
| Shots | 17.5 | 3 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 6.5 | 7 of 54 |
| Fouls | 11 | 38 of 54 |
| Tackles | 15 | 21 of 54 |
| Passes | 540.5 | 16 of 54 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 10 of 54 |