US Open 2026 Power Rankings – Top 10 Contenders at Shinnecock Hills

The US Open is golf’s ultimate examination. No shortcuts, no hiding places, no margin for error. And when the USGA plants its flag at Shinnecock Hills – that windswept, Scottish-flavoured brute on Long Island – the test gets even more specific.

At 7,440 yards and par 70, Shinnecock rewards one thing above all else: elite approach play. The fairways are generous at 30-34 yards, but the greens are small, firm, and fiercely defended at around 6,000 square feet. You can find the short grass off the tee. Getting the ball close to the pin is where this tournament is won and lost.

When Brooks Koepka won here in 2018, the field averaged 74.65. That is not a typo. Shinnecock bites back hard, especially when the wind picks up across those exposed hills.

Using Statz model projections, strokes gained data, current form, and Majors pedigree, here are the 10 players best equipped to lift the trophy on Sunday evening. This is my ranking – not just a model printout. The numbers inform the order, but the final call is mine.

10. Tommy Fleetwood

Model projection: 1.9% win, 12.3% top 10 | SG Total (L24): 1.31

The model has Fleetwood down at 14th in projected win probability. I am bumping him up significantly, and here is why.

Shinnecock Hills has a distinctly Scottish feel – Crenshaw and Coore leaned into that with the 2012 renovation. Fleetwood grew up on links golf at Southport. He thrives in wind, on firm turf, with the ball on the ground. His recent form backs it up too – he is gaining 1.72 strokes per round over his last 16 events, seventh-best in this field.

The concern? His SG:Approach sits at just +0.17 over his last 24 rounds. At a course where approach play is the key separator, that number needs to be better. But Fleetwood has a history of elevating his game at Majors – his 71.07 scoring average across 23 Major starts since 2020 is rock solid. He finished runner-up at the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock. He knows this place.

What could derail him: If the approach play does not sharpen up, the small greens will punish him.

9. Collin Morikawa

Model projection: 2.1% win, 12.8% top 10 | Majors avg: 70.73 (23 events)

Morikawa is a two-time Major champion and one of the best iron players of his generation. His 70.73 Major scoring average across 23 starts puts him fifth in this field – ahead of several players ranked higher by the model.

Shinnecock demands precision with your irons. Morikawa has built his entire career on that skill. He may not be in the most explosive form right now, but the course profile fits him like a glove. Small greens, premium on approach accuracy, par 70 that limits damage for steady players.

What could derail him: His overall strokes gained total has not been at peak levels. If the complete game is not firing, iron play alone might not be enough.

8. Brooks Koepka

Model projection: Outside top 10 | SG:APP (L24): +0.73 | Majors avg: 71.41

The defending Shinnecock champion. Well, defending from 2018 – but the point stands. Koepka won here at +1 when the scoring average was nearly five over par. He is a Majors animal with five titles to his name, and he simply performs differently when the stakes are highest.

His SG:Approach of +0.73 over his last 24 rounds ranks fourth in this field. That is the stat that matters most at Shinnecock. His overall total of 1.19 strokes gained is not elite, but Koepka has never been about weekly consistency. He peaks for the four weeks that matter.

What could derail him: The overall game has too many flat spots between Majors. If this is not one of his switch-on weeks, he will be anonymous.

7. Chris Gotterup

Model projection: 2.5% win, 13.8% top 10, DK 86.3 | SG:PUTT (L24): +0.74

Gotterup is the most interesting name in this field. The model loves him at fifth in win probability. He is gaining 0.74 strokes per round on the greens – the best putting number among the top contenders. Add in his power off the tee with SG:OTT at +0.50, and those two par 5s at 592 and 614 yards become birdie chances.

His Majors scoring average of 70.93 from four starts is promising, though the sample is tiny. At 26, this feels like a player on the verge of a Major breakthrough.

What could derail him: His SG:Approach is just +0.07. At Shinnecock, that is a genuine problem. The putting will need to bail him out repeatedly.

6. Ludvig Aberg

Model projection: 2.2% win, 13.2% top 10, DK 84.1 | SG Total (L24): 1.66

Aberg has the complete skill set for Shinnecock. His ball-striking combination of +0.63 SG:Approach and +0.55 SG:OTT is exactly the profile this course rewards – power to attack the long par 5s, precision to find the small greens. Throw in +0.38 on the putting surfaces and his overall game is humming.

The Swede’s total strokes gained of 1.66 ties for third-best in this field. The talent is undeniable. The question is whether he can convert it at a Major – he came agonisingly close at the 2024 Masters.

What could derail him: Major championship experience. The US Open at Shinnecock is a different beast, and handling the pressure down the stretch is something you learn the hard way.

5. J.J. Spaun

Model projection: 2.4% win, 13.5% top 10, DK 87.1 | SG:APP (L24): +1.08

Here is the eye-catcher. J.J. Spaun leads the entire field in SG:Approach at +1.08 over his last 24 rounds. That is not a small margin – the next best is Scheffler at +0.85. At a course where approach play is the defining skill, that number is impossible to ignore.

His form backs it up. Spaun is gaining 1.60 strokes per round overall over his last 16 events and sits at +1.596 in the field form rankings. He is also generating +0.47 off the tee – plenty of pop for those long par 5s.

The catch? His putting. At -0.37, he is losing strokes on the greens. On Shinnecock’s tricky Poa Annua and bentgrass surfaces, that could be costly.

What could derail him: The putter. If the flat stick stays cold, his elite approach play will create chances he cannot convert.

4. Cameron Young

Model projection: 2.6% win, 13.9% top 10, DK 84.4 | SG Total (L24): 1.57

Cameron Young is world number three for a reason. The model has him fourth in win probability, and the all-round numbers support it – +0.61 approach, +0.49 off the tee, +0.35 around the green. No glaring weaknesses.

Young grew up in Scarborough, New York – just a couple of hours from Shinnecock. He knows Northeast golf, he knows links-style conditions, and he knows firm, fast surfaces. This is his backyard.

What could derail him: His Majors scoring average of 71.54 across 17 starts is middling. He has been close before but has not got over the line in a Major. The talent says it is coming. The history says not yet.

3. Matt Fitzpatrick

Model projection: 2.4% win, 13.6% top 10, DK 84.6 | SG:APP (L24): +0.81

I am pushing Fitzpatrick up from sixth in the model to third in my rankings. The reason is simple – he is the reigning US Open champion (2022, Brookline), his approach play is third-best in this field at +0.81, and his around-the-green work at +0.72 is the best of any contender.

Fitzpatrick is the ultimate course-fit pick for Shinnecock. He does not overpower courses – he dissects them. Small greens do not scare a player this precise with his irons. His total strokes gained of 1.66 over his last 24 rounds ties for third in the field.

The only blot? His putting at -0.07 is fractionally negative, and his Majors average of 71.42 across 23 starts is not spectacular. But at a US Open, you do not need to be spectacular. You need to be precise.

What could derail him: If the greens are running fast and firm, that slight putting deficit could compound. He needs to be solid, not brilliant, with the flatstick.

2. Rory McIlroy

Model projection: 4.0% win, 16.2% top 10, DK 88.9 | SG:OTT (L24): +0.79

McIlroy is the best driver of the golf ball in this field. His +0.79 off the tee over his last 24 rounds leads the pack, and on Shinnecock’s wide fairways, that advantage will be amplified. He is hitting more greens in regulation, getting closer to the pin, and creating more birdie chances than almost anyone.

His Majors pedigree is elite – a 70.31 scoring average across 23 Major starts, third-best in this field. Four Major titles. He knows how to contend on the biggest stage.

So why second and not first? One word: history. McIlroy has never won the US Open. He led the 2011 edition by eight shots before that infamous Sunday at Congressional – well, that was a different situation. But the US Open has been his white whale. His SG:Approach at +0.61 is strong but not elite by Shinnecock standards, and his around-the-green game at +0.11 is a potential vulnerability if he misses these small greens.

What could derail him: The scrambling. At +0.11 around the green, he is middle of the pack among contenders. Miss the putting surface at Shinnecock and you need to be sharp with the wedge. That is not his strongest suit.

1. Scottie Scheffler

Model projection: 4.7% win, 17.7% top 10, DK 89.5 | SG Total (L24): 2.39

There is no debate here. Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet, and the numbers from Statz make it almost impossible to put anyone else at number one.

Start with the overall picture – his SG Total of 2.39 over his last 24 rounds is nearly half a stroke clear of any other contender. His approach play at +0.85 ranks second in the field behind only Spaun. Off the tee at +0.60, on the greens at +0.41, around the green at +0.50 – there is no weakness anywhere.

His form over his last 16 events shows +2.41 strokes gained per round, fourth-best in the field. His Major championship scoring average of 69.73 across 22 starts since 2020 is the best in this entire field. Not second. Not close to second. The best, full stop.

Shinnecock demands everything from every part of your game. Scheffler delivers everywhere. He has the power for the long par 5s, the iron precision for the small greens, the short game to recover when the wind pushes a shot offline, and the putting to convert the chances he creates.

What could derail him: Honestly? Very little based on the data. If Shinnecock turns brutal with wind and firm conditions, the margins compress and anyone in the top five has a chance. But if you are looking for the most complete golfer to handle every challenge Shinnecock can throw at him, Scheffler is the answer.

Honourable Mentions

Jon Rahm – leads the field in SG Total form at +2.665 over his last 16 events and is a former US Open champion (2021). Not in the model top 10, but ignoring that form would be foolish.

Xander Schauffele – two Major wins in 2024 and a 70.16 Majors scoring average (second-best in the field). The model has him third. He could easily be top five here – the consistency is relentless.

Patrick Cantlay – gaining 1.39 strokes per round with a balanced profile across all categories. His 71.54 Majors average holds him back, but he is never far away.

Si Woo Kim – the hottest mover in the field with a +3.34 delta. When Kim gets on a heater, he is capable of anything.

The Shinnecock Profile

If one theme runs through these rankings, it is this: SG:Approach is king at Shinnecock Hills. The fairways are wide enough that most elite players will find them. The greens are where the separation happens. Seven of my top 10 rank inside the top 10 in the field for approach play.

Add in Majors pedigree – this is not a regular Tour stop, it is a US Open at one of golf’s most historic venues – and you start to see why proven Major performers dominate the upper half of this list.

Check the full US Open projections and player data on Statz for the complete field breakdown. Shinnecock is going to be a spectacular week.