US Open 2026 – Who the Model Likes at Shinnecock Hills

Shinnecock Hills does not care about your reputation. The inland links beast on Long Island’s south fork has humbled more major champions than almost any venue in American golf, and when the US Open returns there this week, the field will face one of the most demanding tests in the sport.

The Statz model has crunched every player in the field – form, strokes gained profiles, course fit, historical performance – and ranked them by projected finish probability. This is not a tips piece. This is what the numbers say.

Par 70. 7,440 yards. Bentgrass and Poa Annua fairways that will firm up as the week progresses. Green complexes averaging just 6,000 square feet – tiny targets defended by some of the most punishing bunkering in championship golf. Seven of twelve par 4s stretch beyond 450 yards, the par 3s include a 252-yard monster at the 2nd, and two par 5s reach 592 and 614 yards respectively.

When it last hosted the US Open in 2018, Shinnecock posted a scoring average of 74.65 – the hardest test on Tour that entire year. Brooks Koepka won at +1. That tells you everything about what kind of week this will be.

The model loves a specific profile here: elite approach play, enough power to handle the length, and the mental fortitude to grind when the wind picks up off the Atlantic. SG:Approach is the king stat at Shinnecock. Let’s see who fits the bill.

The Top 5

1. Scottie Scheffler – 4.7% Win Probability

Scheffler sits alone at the top, and the gap between him and the rest is significant. A 4.7% win probability in a field this deep is a strong endorsement from the model – his top-5 rate of 8.9% and top-10 rate of 17.7% dwarf everyone else.

The strokes gained profile explains why. Over his last 24 rounds, Scheffler leads the field in SG Total at +2.39, and the breakdown is devastating: +0.85 on approach, +0.60 off the tee, +0.50 around the green, and +0.41 with the putter. There is no weakness to exploit. At a course where precision iron play separates the contenders from the also-rans, nobody strikes it better into these small, firm greens.

His DraftKings score of 89.5 is the highest in the field. The world number one, playing his best golf, at a course that rewards exactly what he does best. The model is not being controversial here – it is confirming what the eye test already tells you.

2. Rory McIlroy – 4.0% Win Probability

McIlroy slots in second with a 4.0% win probability and a 16.2% top-10 rate. The model sees him as the clear second-best option in the field, and the SG numbers back it up.

His SG Total of +1.65 over the last 24 rounds features the best off-the-tee number of anyone in the top tier at +0.79. At a course with wide fairways in the landing areas – 30 to 34 yards – that power advantage is enormous. Rory can shorten these par 4s in a way most of the field simply cannot. His approach play sits at +0.61, solid if not spectacular, but the length means he is hitting shorter clubs into those tiny greens than almost anyone else.

Shinnecock feels more like Scotland than almost any US course. For a man raised on links golf in Northern Ireland, the conditions should feel like home. A 64.5% make-cut rate and 27.5% top-20 projection round out a profile that screams consistency at the top.

3. Xander Schauffele – 2.7% Win Probability

Schauffele occupies third in the model rankings despite sitting 12th in the OWGR. That gap between world ranking and model projection is one of the more interesting data points this week.

His SG Total of +1.35 is lower than several players ranked below him in the projections, but the model sees something in the skill profile that fits Shinnecock. SG:Approach at +0.50 and SG:OTT at +0.61 give him the power-plus-precision combination this course demands. A 14.1% top-10 rate and 24.8% top-20 rate suggest the model expects him to contend rather than merely make the cut.

Schauffele has always been a major championship performer – calm under pressure, rarely posting blow-up rounds. At a venue where pars are golden and bogeys are inevitable, that temperament matters.

4. Cameron Young – 2.6% Win Probability

Cameron Young at fourth is one of the model’s boldest calls. Ranked 3rd in the world, Young’s 2.6% win probability and 24.2% top-20 rate mark him as a genuine contender.

The SG profile over 24 rounds reads +1.57 total, with +0.61 on approach and +0.49 off the tee. The Long Island native knows this part of the world – he grew up playing links-style golf on these very coastlines. His around-the-green number of +0.35 is quietly excellent and could prove decisive on a course where missing greens is inevitable and scrambling is survival.

A DraftKings projection of 84.4 puts him firmly in the upper tier. The model sees a player whose game translates perfectly to the demands of Shinnecock.

5. Chris Gotterup – 2.5% Win Probability

Gotterup rounds out the top five with a 2.5% win probability, and this is where it gets interesting. His SG Total of +1.17 over 24 rounds does not immediately scream “top five US Open contender,” but the model is weighting recent trajectory heavily.

The standout number is his putting – SG:Putt at +0.74 over the last 24 rounds is elite. His approach play at +0.07 looks pedestrian on paper, but his off-the-tee number of +0.50 means he is finding fairways and giving himself looks. The DraftKings projection of 86.3 is third-highest in the entire field, behind only Scheffler and McIlroy. The model clearly sees a player in peak form whose current trajectory outweighs the raw skill averages.

The Interesting Middle: Positions 6-15

This is where the real value hunting begins. The model’s middle tier is packed with names that could easily end up on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Matt Fitzpatrick at sixth (2.4% win, 13.6% top-10) is a fascinating case. His SG:Approach of +0.81 is second only to Scheffler in the entire field, and his around-the-green number of +0.72 is the best of anyone in the top 25. The 2022 US Open champion knows how to win this event, and the model sees a player whose precision game is perfectly suited to Shinnecock’s small greens. The only concern is the putter – SG:Putt at -0.07 is below average – but if the flat stick behaves even slightly, Fitzpatrick has the iron game to contend.

J.J. Spaun at seventh (2.4% win, 13.5% top-10) is arguably the model’s biggest surprise. His SG:Approach of +1.08 over 24 rounds is the best in the entire field – yes, better than Scheffler. At a course where approach play is the single most important skill, that number alone justifies his position. The putter at -0.37 is a red flag, but the model calculates that his iron play is so elite right now that it compensates. His DraftKings score of 87.1 is fourth-highest in the field.

Ludvig Aberg eighth (2.2% win) brings another compelling power-plus-precision profile. SG:OTT at +0.55 and SG:APP at +0.63 make him one of the most complete ball-strikers in the field. Patrick Cantlay at ninth (2.1% win) is ranked 34th in the world but the model sees significantly more upside – his methodical, low-error game is built for US Open attrition.

Ben Griffin at tenth and Collin Morikawa at eleventh are separated by fractions – 12.9% versus 12.8% top-10 rates. Morikawa’s iron play needs no introduction. Griffin’s DraftKings projection of 84.4 matches Cameron Young’s, suggesting the model sees a similar ceiling.

Sam Burns at twelfth (2.1% win, DK 85.3) is another player the model rates well above his world ranking of 29th. Si Woo Kim at thirteenth and Tommy Fleetwood at fourteenth bring different strengths – Kim’s recent form versus Fleetwood’s major championship pedigree and links-style comfort. Fleetwood at OWGR 7 but projected 14th suggests the model sees some regression in his current form.

Nicolai Hojgaard closes out this tier at fifteenth (1.7% win, DK 83.0). Ranked 32nd in the world, the model sees more upside than the market. His top-20 rate of 21.3% means the model gives him better than a one-in-five chance of a strong week.

Deeper in the Field: Positions 16-25

Russell Henley (16th, 1.7% win) – ranked 5th in the world but the model projects him lower. His DraftKings score of 77.7 is one of the lowest among the top 20, suggesting the model sees a floor-ceiling disconnect.

Harris English (17th, 1.5% win) – a grinder whose 20.5% top-20 rate makes him a solid accumulator play.

Maverick McNealy (18th, 1.5% win) – ranked 35th in the world but projected alongside English. The model sees an undervalued profile.

Jake Knapp (19th, 1.3% win) – the big hitter at OWGR 19. Power matters at Shinnecock, and Knapp has plenty.

Min Woo Lee (20th, 1.2% win) – the Australian with a links pedigree. A 19.0% top-20 rate at these odds could interest the each-way market.

Justin Thomas (21st, 1.2% win, DK 82.2) – the DraftKings score is notably higher than players ranked above him, hinting the model sees upside in his ceiling if the putter fires.

Adam Scott (22nd, 1.1% win) – the veteran who has been here before. A 53.3% cut rate says he will likely see the weekend.

Aaron Rai (23rd, 1.1% win) – the Englishman quietly climbing. A top-10 rate of 9.9% at his price could be the deepest value on the board.

Gary Woodland (24th, 1.0% win) – the 2019 US Open champion knows how to handle major pressure. A 52.5% cut rate keeps him relevant.

Wyndham Clark (25th, 1.0% win) – interesting that his SG Total of +1.70 over 24 rounds is second-highest in the field, yet the model projects him 25th. The approach play at +0.68 is strong, but a negative off-the-tee number (-0.07) at a course that rewards power pushes him down the rankings. A case where raw skill does not perfectly translate to course fit.

What the Model is Telling Us

The theme running through these projections is clear. Shinnecock Hills rewards a specific combination: elite approach play, enough length to attack the par 5s and manage the longer par 4s, and the short-game touch to survive when you inevitably miss these tiny greens.

The model’s top five all possess at least two of those three traits. Scheffler has all three – which is why he sits alone at the top. The biggest market disagreements are in the 6-15 range, where players like Spaun, Burns, and Cantlay are projected significantly higher than their world rankings would suggest.

If conditions are firm and the wind blows – the Shinnecock everyone fears – the model’s emphasis on approach play becomes even more relevant. If rain softens the course and the wind stays down, the longer hitters gain an edge, which would favour McIlroy, Aberg, and Young.

Either way, the data points in one direction: this is an iron player’s championship. The man who finds these greens most often will be lifting the trophy on Sunday evening.

Full projections, SG breakdowns, and daily updates available at statz.ai/golf.