The Open 2026 Power Rankings – Top 10 Contenders at Royal Birkdale
Updated 14 July 2026
The 154th Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale this week – one of the finest links on the rota, playing 7,156 yards to a par of 70 with 156 in the field. Our rankings are built the way a power ranking should be: on recent finishes, links and course-history form, last-24-round strokes-gained, and the Statz projection model – not on reputation. Plenty of big names miss the cut here because the numbers say they haven’t earned a spot this week.
Here are our Open Championship 2026 Power Rankings.
Honourable Mentions
- Nicolai Højgaard – the model rates his course-setup fit best in the field, but three straight missed cuts (and a field-low 0.67 L24 SG among our contenders) keep him out until he arrests the slide.
- Viktor Hovland – a Travelers title and a 3rd at the RBC show the ceiling, but two missed cuts in the same stretch make him boom-or-bust.
- J.J. Spaun – quietly trending: 1.44 SG over his last 24 rounds with a 7th and a 6th to show for it.
- Justin Thomas – four consecutive top-20s and 1.39 L24 SG; consistent, if without the headline result to force his way in.
10. Si Woo Kim
Runner-up at the CJ Cup and a T9 at last week’s Scottish Open, backed by a healthy 1.32 SG over his last 24 rounds. The model gives him a 10.1% top-10 chance – a live each-way runner who handles a stiff test.
9. Robert MacIntyre
The pick of the home Scots on links pedigree. A T3 at the Scottish Open and a T10 at the Travelers headline a run that earns him a 1.7% win chance and 10.3% top-10 in the model. The L24 SG (0.73) is modest, but the course fit and big-week temperament are real.
8. Russell Henley
World #5, and a winner at the Charles Schwab inside this window. His 1.19 base SG over 100 rounds speaks to the underlying class; the only flag is a soft venue-fit score, so he’ll need the ball-striking to carry him.
7. Sam Burns
A runner-up at the US Open and a T4 at the Memorial – Burns has shown he can contend on the biggest, most demanding setups. A 2.2% win chance and 10.9% top-10 back the recent form.
6. Chris Gotterup
Fresh off a win at the John Deere and carrying 1.64 L24 SG, Gotterup is one of the hottest players in the field. A strong course-setup fit and a 2.7% win chance – level with Fleetwood – make him a serious outright shout at a bigger price.
5. Wyndham Clark
The model has him outside its top 15 on a poor long-term base, but ignore that: Clark won the US Open last month, added a T5 at the Travelers and a 3rd at the Memorial, and owns the field’s hottest recent strokes-gained line at 2.40 over his last 24 rounds – second only to Scheffler. On current form there are few more dangerous names in the field.
4. Tommy Fleetwood
Southport’s own, on the course he grew up on. The form matches the sentiment: 1.65 L24 SG and a metronomic run of T4, T11, T11 across the Memorial, US Open and RBC. A 2.7% win chance and 11.9% top-10 – and if ever there’s a week for a maiden major, it’s a home Open at Birkdale.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
The best form-and-class blend outside the top two: a T3 at the Scottish Open, 4th at the Travelers and 2nd at the RBC Canadian, all built on 1.51 L24 SG. A 3.4% win chance – third-highest in the field – and an England-rooted links game make him a genuine threat.
2. Rory McIlroy
A 4.1% win chance and 13.1% top-10, the best links-conditions fit of any contender, and a steady run of top-tens (T7 Scottish, T7 PGA, T12 Memorial). Add the emotional weight of a home Open and McIlroy is the most likely name to chase Scheffler down.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Nobody else is close. A field-topping 2.39 SG over his last 24 rounds (2.58 across 100), a runner-up at the Travelers and a T4 at the US Open, a 4.8% win chance, 13.8% top-10 and a projected 12-under total. The world #1 is the model’s clear favourite and ours.