Baycurrent Classic 2026 Betting Preview: 4 Picks

The Baycurrent Classic is the smallest field we will bet into all season. Eighty-three players, an $8,000,000 purse, Xander Schauffele back to defend, and 8 places covering nearly a tenth of the runners. That last number matters more than anything else on this page: the same 8pt card that is fighting for the top six per cent of a European field this week is fighting for the top ten per cent here.

What does it take to win the Baycurrent Classic?

Winning the 2026 Baycurrent Classic at Yokohama Country Club takes approach play and putting, which our model weights at 36.1 and 33.0 per cent of the separation between players, with driving at just 14.9 per cent of it.

Yokohama Country Club plays to par 71 with Zoysiagrass fairways and creeping bentgrass greens, laid out by Takeo Aiyama and Hideo Takemura. Around-the-green work takes the other 16.0 per cent. The demand profile is lopsided and it drives every selection below.

Fourteen per cent for the tee shot is as low as we see anywhere. This is an iron player's week, and a long hitter gains almost nothing for it. Our projection is 19 under par with the cut around 2 under. There is only one prior edition at this course, because the event moved here in 2025 from ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino, and Schauffele won it. If strokes gained is new to you, our guide explains what the numbers on this page measure.

Where does this card disagree with the Statz model?

Two of our four Baycurrent Classic picks for 2026 overrule the Statz model: Sungjae Im at 25/1, whom it ranks 29th, and Billy Horschel at 75/1, ranked 31st, because the model weights recent form above a player's record of converting into top-10s.

It is better to explain that than to let you find it on the projections page and wonder.

Correction, 13 October 2026: this preview originally stated that the model's base-skill factor was computed over a 24-round window. That was wrong, and the error was ours. Base skill reads our Statz Index, a recency-weighted, field-adjusted rating over a player's last 100 rounds; the 24 we had seen was an unrelated default on a stats endpoint and feeds nothing. The substantive point stands, and has since been fixed in the model: it measured strokes gained and never asked whether a player converts them into high finishes. On this field that produced a clear distortion, ranking Doug Ghim 4th with a 68.3 per cent chance of a top 10 against a career record of 6 top-10s in 84 starts, and Sungjae Im 29th against 37 in 105. A dedicated conversion factor, career top-10 rate shrunk by sample size, now carries 0.12 of the model's weight.

Our own settled record says which way to lean. Across 70 settled picks, the 41/1 to 70/1 bracket has returned one winner from 24 selections for a loss of 25.75 points, while 21/1 to 40/1 has returned a profit of 64.68 points, and all 14 picks that have ever paid us were tour winners or major-calibre players. So this card holds nothing in that 41/1 to 70/1 band, and it weights proven conversion over hot form.

Who is in form for the Baycurrent Classic?

Ben James is the form player in the 2026 Baycurrent Classic field at plus 2.60 strokes gained per round over their last 16 rounds, ahead of Doug Ghim at plus 2.10 and Michael Brennan at plus 1.61, among 77 players with a full window.

Sungjae Im follows at plus 1.58, then Jacob Bridgeman at plus 1.55 and Kevin Yu at plus 1.54. You can see the whole list on our PGA Tour form guide. Note that James is model rank 3 and no bookmaker prices him, so he could not be considered.

Jacob Bridgeman, 20/1, 1.5pt each-way

Bridgeman is the model's number one of 83 at 15.71 per cent to win and 77.5 per cent for a top 10, the best place profile in the field by a wide margin, and he carries the strongest course-fit score here. He won four starts before last, has a 4th inside his last five, and is 5th of 77 on 16-round form. Two wins and 11 top-10s from 62 starts is an 18 per cent conversion rate.

Two reservations, stated rather than buried. He has never played Yokohama. And his form leans heavily on one week: plus 1.55 becomes plus 0.74 once the Biltmore is removed. At 20/1 a place returns 7.50 against the 8 points committed.

Sungjae Im, 25/1, 1pt each-way

Im is the pick this card is built around, and the model ranks him 29th. Here is why we are taking him anyway.

He is 4th of 77 in this field over his last 16 rounds at plus 1.58 per round, and the steadiest of all four picks when the best single week is removed, holding at plus 1.46 where Bridgeman falls to 0.74. He converts better than anyone else available: 37 top-10s in 105 starts, 35 per cent, against 18 per cent for the model's own favourite. His last two starts in our data were 5th at the FedEx St. Jude and 10th at the BMW Championship, both far stronger fields than this one, and he was T20 here last year.

The mechanism behind the model's objection, as we now understand it: his long-run rating is modest relative to this field, and until 13 October 2026 the model held nothing that credited his record of actually finishing high. It read strokes gained and stopped there. That is the gap the conversion factor closes.

The honest unknown is that we hold no rounds for him since 20 August. If he has played in Asia since, none of it is in the window, so that plus 1.58 is current as of the BMW and no fresher.

Kevin Yu, 40/1, 1pt each-way

Yu is the best price on the card relative to its evidence. Model rank 9 at 45.0 per cent for a top 10, 6th of 77 on 16-round form, holding at plus 1.08 with his best week out, and T20 here last year on the same 8 under as Im. He converts at 23 per cent across 62 starts with a win among them. At 40/1 a place returns 9.00 and pays for the entire week on its own.

One thing to declare: he was on last week's card and finished T32 at Black Desert. This is a repeat selection rather than a fresh read.

Billy Horschel, 75/1, 0.5pt each-way

The second override, for the same reason as the first. The model ranks Horschel 31st on 4.8 per cent for a top 10. He converts at 25 per cent across 77 starts with two wins, the best rate of any player available at 70/1 or longer, and he is 17th of 77 on current form, which is respectable rather than hot.

Against him: T54 here last year, and his form drops to plus 0.71 per round with his best week removed. At 75/1 a place returns 8.00 and clears the week.

The card

• Jacob Bridgeman - 20/1 - 1.5pt each-way
• Sungjae Im - 25/1 - 1pt each-way
• Kevin Yu - 40/1 - 1pt each-way
• Billy Horschel - 75/1 - 0.5pt each-way (longshot)

All four are each-way at bet365, 1/5 odds, 8 places, with dead-heat rules on shared places. Each-way is two bets of the same size, so the card commits 8pts in total, and our guide to each-way golf betting covers why 8 places from 83 runners is the most generous place market of the autumn.

Prices are bet365's, not the best on the market. Ladbrokes and Coral have Im at 33/1 rather than 25/1, but bet365's 1/5 and 8 places are the terms we settle to, so those are the numbers this card is judged on.

Last week at the Bank of Utah we drew a blank from four picks, with Ben Kohles closest at T13. Every selection is settled in public: the running profit and loss is on the Tipster Picks track record, and the event itself is on the Baycurrent Classic hub.