US Open 2026 Preview – Four Picks for Shinnecock Hills
Shinnecock Hills – The Ultimate Test Returns
The 126th U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York – a par-70, 7,445-yard beast that last hosted in 2018, when Brooks Koepka won at +1 over par. Nobody finished under par that week. Nobody.
This is as pure a test as golf gets. Elevated, contoured greens that punish anything less than precise iron play. Deep, penalising rough that costs you half a shot per miss. Wind that changes everything. Shinnecock doesn’t care how far you hit it – it cares how well you think.
The model has Scottie Scheffler (6/1) narrowly ahead of Rory McIlroy (12/1) at the top of the projections, with Scheffler given a 4.6% win probability and McIlroy at 4.1%. Cameron Young (22/1) sits third. But this is a US Open at Shinnecock – the most volatile major setup on the calendar – and the value sits further down the card.
What Does It Take to Win Here?
Shinnecock demands completeness. There is no single skill you can lean on. The course profile shows balanced SG demand across all four categories – off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting all carry equal weight.
But if you push me, I will tell you what separates contenders from pretenders here: scrambling and iron control. You will miss greens at Shinnecock. Even the best in the world will. The question is whether you can get up and down from brutal positions and limit the damage.
The 2018 edition proved it. Tommy Fleetwood shot a final-round 63 – a stunning round built on precise approach play and clutch putting. Koepka won because he avoided the big numbers. At Shinnecock, pars are birdies.
Course setup score is a factor in the model too, and it favours players who have performed well on similar par-70 championship setups. McIlroy scores a perfect 1.0 in course setup, with Gotterup (0.99), Aberg (0.91), and Mitchell (0.89) also rating elite.
Who Is Trending Right Now?
The form data on Statz makes fascinating reading heading into Thursday.
Jon Rahm leads the field in SG total form over his last 16 rounds at +2.67 per round – but he has only played 8 rounds in that window, so the sample is smaller than ideal. Jackson Koivun, the amateur, sits second at +2.62 across a full 16 rounds.
The name that jumps off the page is Wyndham Clark. Third in the field for SG total form at +2.60 per round across 16 rounds. He is also ranked 3rd on Tour for SG putting (+1.30) and 2nd for birdies per round (5.06) over that same window. His recent results tell the story: won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (-30), finished 3rd at the Memorial (-11), T11 at the Canadian Open (-11). He has been absolutely rolling.
Si Woo Kim is one of the hottest movers in the field – his recent 8 rounds average +3.08 in SG total compared to -0.26 in his prior 8, a delta of +3.34. That is a massive surge.
Sam Burns ranks 15th in the field for SG total form at +1.46, with strong around-the-green numbers (ranked 23rd on Tour, +0.40) and solid putting form (ranked 22nd, +0.69). He backed up a T4 at the Memorial with a T20 at the Canadian.
Selection 1: Wyndham Clark – 40/1 (EW)
Clark is the most in-form player in this field not named Rahm, and he brings better data depth. His SG total of +2.60 over 16 rounds ranks him 3rd in the entire field. His putting has been phenomenal – ranked 3rd on Tour at +1.30 per round. He is making 5+ birdies per round.
The model ranks him 18th with a 1.3% win probability, but I think the model is underselling his current trajectory. His recent form score of 0.80 is the highest of any player in the top 25 projections. He won the Byron Nelson, finished 3rd at the Memorial, and came in T11 at the Canadian in his last three starts. That is W-3-T11 form heading into a major.
Clark also scores 0.78 in course setup, showing he handles tough championship configurations well. His SG around the green is strong (+0.56, ranked 11th on Tour over L16) – exactly the skill that separates at Shinnecock.
The 2023 US Open champion knows how to win this event. At 40/1, he is the play of the week.
Selection 2: Sam Burns – 40/1 (EW)
Burns ranks 6th in the model projections with a 2.2% win probability and nearly 12% chance of a top-10 finish. His composite score of 0.64 places him comfortably inside the top tier.
What I love about Burns this week is his skill profile. His base skill score is 0.71 – one of the stronger readings outside the top 3 – and his course history factor (0.69) suggests he has performed well at similar venues. He scores 0.83 for course setup, indicating he thrives on championship-style layouts.
His L16 form shows SG around the green of +0.40 (23rd on Tour) and SG putting of +0.69 (22nd on Tour). At Shinnecock, where scrambling is everything, those numbers matter enormously. He finished T4 at the Memorial and T20 at the Canadian Open in his last two starts.
Burns does not grab headlines, but he is a complete player at a venue that rewards completeness. The model has him ranked higher than players available at shorter prices, and 40/1 feels generous for the 6th-ranked projection.
Selection 3: Chris Gotterup – 50/1 (EW)
Gotterup has been quietly building an elite profile this season, and the model agrees – he is ranked 8th with a 2.2% win probability and 11.9% top-10 chance. That is inside the top 10 of a 156-man field at a major championship.
His course setup score of 0.99 is the second-highest of any player in the projections. That is a signal the model thinks his game profile maps almost perfectly to this type of championship test. He is also world-ranked 11th, so the talent is undeniable.
His putting form has been electric – ranked 14th on Tour over L16 at +0.84 SG putting per round. He finished T10 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the Truist Championship in recent starts, showing he competes at the business end of big events.
At 50/1, you are getting a top-10 model projection at an each-way price. The market has not caught up with where Gotterup’s game is right now.
Longshot: Keith Mitchell – 100/1 (EW)
Mitchell is a classic US Open longshot play. He is ranked 21st in the model with a 1.2% win probability and 9.4% top-10 chance – perfectly reasonable numbers for a triple-figure price.
Two things stand out. First, his course history score of 0.67 is strong for a player at these odds, suggesting he has competed well at similar venues. Second, his course setup score of 0.89 ranks among the best in the field – the model thinks this type of test suits him down to the ground.
He finished 5th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (-22) in his last meaningful result, showing he can go low in strong fields. His SG off the tee ranks 26th on Tour over L16 at +0.53, and his approach numbers are solid at +0.37 (58th).
At 100/1 each-way, you need him in the top 5 to collect the place terms, and the model gives him a roughly 4.8% chance of doing exactly that. That is value.
Selections Summary
- Wyndham Clark – 40/1 (EW) – Best form in the field, 2023 US Open champion, elite putting and scrambling
- Sam Burns – 40/1 (EW) – 6th model projection, strong course setup fit, complete short game
- Chris Gotterup – 50/1 (EW) – 8th model projection, near-perfect course setup score, elite putting form
- Keith Mitchell – 100/1 (EW) LONGSHOT – Strong course history and setup scores, 5th at CJ Cup, model gives ~5% top-5 chance
Each-way terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places (bet365)