RBC Canadian Open 2026 Betting Preview – Three Picks for TPC Toronto
The RBC Canadian Open heads to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course this week, a par-70 track measuring 7,389 yards designed by Doug Carrick. The $9.8m event runs June 11-14, with a field of 147 players chasing a title that Ryan Fox claimed last year at -18.
This is a course that rewards putting first. The top-10 trends from recent editions show the biggest separation comes on the greens (+0.99 SG/round), followed by approach play (+0.91 SG/round) and off the tee (+0.58 SG/round). If you can hole putts and find greens, this venue is there for the taking.
Who Is Trending Right Now?
The form data from statz.ai/golf/trending flags three names worth watching in this week’s field.
Eric Cole leads the field in SG Total over his last 16 rounds at +2.21 per round, with a 2nd-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge and an 8th at the Memorial in his last two starts. Wyndham Clark is right behind at +2.07, fresh off winning the Byron Nelson and finishing 3rd at the Memorial. And Aaron Rai sits at +1.76, riding a PGA Championship win and a top-5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic.
Selection 1 – Sam Burns 14/1 (EW)
The Statz model has Sam Burns as the outright #1 projection this week, with a 9.1% win probability and a 25.7% top-10 chance – projected score of -18. The model likes him for good reason.
Burns has the highest course fit score in the top five (0.925) and a strong course setup score (0.916). His course history at TPC Toronto backs it up – he finished 2nd here last year at -18, losing to Fox in a tight finish. His recent form is building nicely too: a 4th-place finish at the Memorial last week, and he is gaining +0.78 SG putting per round over his last 24 rounds. At a course where the flatstick is king, that matters.
His L24 SG Total of +1.04 per round ranks comfortably inside the top 25 on Tour. At 14/1, the Statz model shows a +2.5% edge over bet365’s implied probability. Burns is the pick of the week.
Selection 2 – Keith Mitchell 55/1 (EW)
Keith Mitchell sits 8th in the Statz projections with a 2.5% win probability and 17.8% top-10 chance – a solid profile for a player priced at 55/1. The model shows a +0.7% edge, one of the largest positive-value plays in the field.
His factor scores tell the story: a course setup score of 0.953 (near the top of the field) and a course fit of 0.460. Mitchell’s SG off the tee ranks among the field leaders at +0.70 over his last 16 rounds, and he hits it a long way – 311 yards average. He has a strong history of contending at Canadian Open-style venues, and his projection of -13 gives him a realistic path to an each-way payout at this price.
Selection 3 – Andrew Putnam 75/1 (EW)
Andrew Putnam is the value play of the week. Ranked 14th in the Statz projections (2.0% win, 16.0% top-10), he is priced at 75/1 – the model gives a +0.6% edge.
The key here is course history. Putnam finished T6 at TPC Toronto last year at -15, and his course history factor score of 0.726 is one of the highest in the field. His L24 form is strong too – SG Total of +1.73 per round over his last 24 rounds, with +0.60 SG approach and +0.91 SG putting. That is exactly the profile this course demands. He backed it up with a 2nd-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge recently. At 75/1, this is too big.
Longshot – Beau Hossler 170/1 (EW)
Beau Hossler at 170/1 offers genuine each-way value. He sits 19th in the Statz projections with a 1.3% win probability and 13.4% top-10 chance. The model shows a +0.7% edge – the joint-largest positive edge in the field alongside Mitchell.
Hossler’s SG putting over his last 16 rounds sits at +0.86 per round – 7th-best in the field – and his around-the-green work has been excellent. His course history factor (0.653) suggests he has performed well at similar venues. At this price, you are getting a player the model rates inside the top 20 at odds that imply he is 66th.
Picks Summary
- Sam Burns – 14/1 EW
- Keith Mitchell – 55/1 EW
- Andrew Putnam – 75/1 EW
- Beau Hossler – 170/1 EW (Longshot)
EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365